Help...vvv basic EV calc

[gimmetheloot]

OK...
Almost sure I am doing something wrong...Please help fix silly mistakes [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

100BB stacks.

Hero is SB w/ A9cc
Villain Button with AsAh

All fold to villain, raises to 3.5BB, hero calls, BB folds.

8.5BB in pot.
Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] jack[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero leads 7 BB, BTN raises to 30BB, Hero shoves.

If we 48/52 dog, and villain calls 100%, we lose $4 per hand.

200*.48 = 96$...

now...if he folds 10% of the time...

45.5BB(8.5BB + 7BB + 30BB)

(45.5BB*1*.1)+(200*.48*.9)
4.55 + 86.4 = 90.95 = lower EV than called all the time...
.

Clearly wrong, and yet I cannot figure out where??

[jay_shark]

After the button raises on the flop , you can either fold , call or re-raise . Your EV for folding is 0 . If you shove knowing that your opponent will call 100% of the time as a 52-48 favorite , then your EV for shoving is

(100-3.5 + preflop money )*0.48 -(100-3.5)*52 = 0.22

preflop =8.5

Remember that once you put money into the pot it's not yours anymore . So clearly , if we know that villain will call every time as a 52-48 favorite , then it's still correct to shove all in since there is already some preflop money to defend . The additional 8.5 is added compensation to make up for being a slight underdog .

Also notice that (96.5+8.5)/96.5 =1.0888:1 which is equivalent to 1/(2.0888) = 47.89% which means you have a positive expectation situation . I think this method is much easier to understand than the first method .