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#1
10-01-2006, 11:52 PM
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two river beats later, now I\'m officially about to throw up (PL50)
loose passive table preflop.
action heavy after the flop, lots of betting on the flop which is why I check. villain reraiser, btw. is pretty tight. #Game No : 5294567810 ***** Hand History for Game 5294567810 ***** $50 PL Omaha - Sunday, October 01, 23:28:37 ET 2006 Table Table 96655 (No DP) (Real Money) Seat 6 is the button Total number of players : 9 Seat 2: CecilStamps ( $67.74 ) Seat 4: fusionbastrd ( $140.76 ) Seat 6: mr_patriko ( $50.87 ) Seat 8: bogey_pro ( $47.93 ) Seat 9: chilimac3 ( $37.09 ) Seat 1: Buddusky1 ( $50 ) Seat 10: heals4you ( $21.50 ) Seat 7: wdmny ( $59.35 ) Seat 3: JMurt83 ( $49 ) wdmny posts small blind [$0.25]. bogey_pro posts big blind [$0.50]. ** Dealing down cards ** Dealt to Buddusky1 [ Th Ks Js 9s ] chilimac3 calls [$0.50]. heals4you calls [$0.50]. pappa_kd has joined the table. Buddusky1 calls [$0.50]. CecilStamps calls [$0.50]. fusionbastrd folds. mr_patriko calls [$0.50]. wdmny calls [$0.25]. bogey_pro checks. ** Dealing Flop ** [ Qh, 9d, Td ] wdmny checks. bogey_pro checks. chilimac3 checks. heals4you checks. Buddusky1 checks. CecilStamps checks. mr_patriko bets [$2]. wdmny folds. bogey_pro calls [$2]. chilimac3 folds. heals4you folds. Buddusky1 raises [$11.35]. CecilStamps folds. mr_patriko raises [$37.40]. bogey_pro folds. buddusky (????) 
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#2
10-02-2006, 12:23 AM
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Re: two river beats later, now I\'m officially about to throw up (PL50)
[ QUOTE ]
(????) [/ QUOTE ]
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#3
10-02-2006, 01:28 AM
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Re: two river beats later, now I\'m officially about to throw up (PL50)
I don't knwo how to convert omaha hands, they always come out badly.
Here is my problem: My push was basically to charge for FH or flush draws, I felt it was pretty standard. given the nature of this table - where chasing and bad play is the norm - I felt that check/raising was +EV. However, when villain reraised all in, I was worried I was behind a huge draw. I have the nuts, but how often is his hand something sick like a made straight + diamond draw OR a full house draw, Qs full + diamond draw.
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#4
10-02-2006, 03:04 PM
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Re: two river beats later, now I\'m officially about to throw up (PL50)
[ QUOTE ]
given the nature of this table - where chasing and bad play is the norm - I felt that check/raising was +EV. [/ QUOTE ] If they are bad players they may just take the free cards given to them. Also by leading out you can manage the pot better as your hand is the current nuts but also very vunerable [ QUOTE ] However, when villain reraised all in, I was worried I was behind a huge draw. I have the nuts, but how often is his hand something sick like a made straight + diamond draw OR a full house draw, Qs full + diamond draw. [/ QUOTE ] Three scenarios (assuming he's tight), starting with the best to the worst: http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2110017 pokenum -o th ks js 9s - as kd ts 9c -- qh 9d jd Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Jd 9d Qh cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Js 9s Th 114 13.90 134 16.34 572 69.76 0.488 As Ts 9c Kd 134 16.34 114 13.90 572 69.76 0.512 http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2110009 pokenum -o th ks js 9s - qc qd ad 4c -- qh 9d jd Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Jd 9d Qh cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Js 9s Th 328 40.00 492 60.00 0 0.00 0.400 Qc 4c Ad Qd 492 60.00 328 40.00 0 0.00 0.600 http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2110014 pokenum -o th ks js 9s - kd ad jc tc -- qh 9d jd Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Jd 9d Qh cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Js 9s Th 110 13.41 373 45.49 337 41.10 0.340 Jc Tc Ad Kd 373 45.49 110 13.41 337 41.10 0.660 If you say that he is v.tight then he may have Scenario 1 50% of the time and the other two 25% of the time, your overall EV is v.poor. Unfortunately this all points to a fold. A push would only be worth it if another player went all in with a even worse hand than both of yours (eg a set of 9's). If he is moderately tight and then the ratio of scenarios is 70%:15%:15% then it is (barely) worth a call. Your check/raise was useful in giving you alot of info on hands but I think leading out here is better as your hand isnt as strong as you think it is and you can manage the pot better. But I think in this scenario you should fold and wait for a better spot.
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#5
10-02-2006, 05:07 PM
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Re: two river beats later, now I\'m officially about to throw up (PL50)
guilt_trip, you dont seem to be considering the dead money in the pot. Our hero is investing ~$38 at this point for a total pot of $105.50
Using your numbers: .488 *105.5 = $51.85 - $38 = ~$14 equity 50% of the time .400*105.5 = $42.2 - $38 = ~$4 25% of the time .34 * 105.5 = $35.87 - $38 = <font color="red"> ~$2.25</font> 25% of the time (14*0.5) +(4 * 0.25) <font color="red">(-2.25 </font> * 0.25) = +7.65 on average from going all in at this spot. This is giving 0 consideration to the villain donking off with hands our hero may beat. I think this is a clear all in situation. If my math is wrong, please teach me to do it correctly.
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#6
10-02-2006, 05:17 PM
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Re: two river beats later, now I\'m officially about to throw up (PL50)
Your math is right and I forgot to consider the dead money.
Math was never my strong point, lol [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#8
10-04-2006, 03:13 AM
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Re: two river beats later, now I\'m officially about to throw up (PL50)
[ QUOTE ]
Your math is right and I forgot to consider the dead money. Math was never my strong point, lol [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] this isn't really a maths question -- if you get this wrong you misunderstand something about the game. Yes you can get an answer by doing some maths. But if you do this and the maths tells you should fold, you should realise you've done something wrong.
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