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#31
11-16-2007, 02:33 PM
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Re: QQ vs. Cold 4bet
[ QUOTE ]
fwiw, because we're a bit deep, shoving is -EV if his calling range is KK+,AKo,AKs. Basically we've got 229 behind with a 90 dollar overlay which means we'd be getting 1.4:1 on a shove when he's calling. 1.4:1 requires approx. 42% equity and QQ has only 40% equity against that calling range. So don't say shove, cause he's not calling JJ here. [/ QUOTE ] You can't just calculate the ev vs his calling range, assume you get called 100% and call a shove -ev. I'd shove here every time vs him. He does goofy fps stuff fairly often in my limited play vs him. 
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#32
11-16-2007, 03:53 PM
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Re: QQ vs. Cold 4bet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] fwiw, because we're a bit deep, shoving is -EV if his calling range is KK+,AKo,AKs. Basically we've got 229 behind with a 90 dollar overlay which means we'd be getting 1.4:1 on a shove when he's calling. 1.4:1 requires approx. 42% equity and QQ has only 40% equity against that calling range. So don't say shove, cause he's not calling JJ here. [/ QUOTE ] You can't just calculate the ev vs his calling range, assume you get called 100% and call a shove -ev. I'd shove here every time vs him. He does goofy fps stuff fairly often in my limited play vs him. [/ QUOTE ] I know that. Should of mentioned sooner. Here is a copy of one of my later posts: 319*.4 + .6*-229 = -9.8 x(90) + (1-x)(-9.8) = 0 x = ~10% means he has to be bluffing > 10% to make shoving +EV. If he's bluffing 20% of the time here, we stand to net ~$18 in EV. I wish I could do a reasonable EV calculation for calling, but there are so many factors that I think it would be rather difficult.
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#33
11-16-2007, 04:41 PM
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Re: QQ vs. Cold 4bet
oh, my bad. wow, I had no idea he's have to be bluffing or value raising worse that often. I guess it's probably a fold or a call and stack off on a non A/K flop. both options seem to lend themselves towards you folding the best of it a lot tho.
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#36
11-16-2007, 04:54 PM
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Re: QQ vs. Cold 4bet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is a fold. Almost nobody cold 4 bets OOP with less than AA/KK/AK. You're not really deep, so if he were going to 4 bet with AK, he's probably going to shove since he's OOP. [/ QUOTE ] I know villain is capable of 4 betting here with more than that range vs me. I shove here. [/ QUOTE ] I feel exactly the same way and with this in mind I push most of the time. I never fold this preflop. Plus JKA you are really annoying at the tables like always raising button with Q4s and other random hands. I am sure ofishstix has picked up on this as well as on the dynamic you and CO have and so it is possible he has opened his range up to include some other random hands.
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#37
11-16-2007, 06:44 PM
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Re: QQ vs. Cold 4bet
[ QUOTE ]
oh, my bad. wow, I had no idea he's have to be bluffing or value raising worse that often. I guess it's probably a fold or a call and stack off on a non A/K flop. both options seem to lend themselves towards you folding the best of it a lot tho. [/ QUOTE ] LOL, obv. pushing is +EV here. I'm just not sure it's best.
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#38
11-16-2007, 10:09 PM
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Re: QQ vs. Cold 4bet
[ QUOTE ]
fwiw, because we're a bit deep, shoving is -EV if his calling range is KK+,AKo,AKs. Basically we've got 229 behind with a 90 dollar overlay which means we'd be getting 1.4:1 on a shove when he's calling. 1.4:1 requires approx. 42% equity and QQ has only 40% equity against that calling range. So don't say shove, cause he's not calling JJ here. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] LOL, obv. pushing is +EV here. I'm just not sure it's best. [/ QUOTE ] um, yeah, my head hurts and when my head hurts and I have the third nuts I shove.
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