SNG bubble, donk call IMO

[bokunori]

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1342028

Villain had raised 5/6 of the last hands. I think this is a decent time to make a stand. Yes? No? Absolutely not?

[BradleyT]

SnGPT says -1.5% even if he's shoving any two.

[homnig]

According to sngpt, if he's shoving atc u can only call 99+

[Shillx]

It's fine

[Oubliette]

pretty sure im never calling this? shillx any particular reason to doubt the numbers here?

[kleath]

[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure im never calling this? shillx any particular reason to doubt the numbers here?

[/ QUOTE ]

folding leaves you in a bad spot if shorty doubles and if you win you're CL, seems close and I think I still probably fold but ignore SNGPT somewhat here.

EDIT: Meh that didnt really convey what I wanted it to, but basically at 200/400 instafold 300/600 close cause you still have 5 bbs and the shorter stacks arent ridic short.

[hoyasaxa]

i would call, youre way ahead of big stacks range and if you double up there is serious potential for bubble pwnage

[JoeSchmo]

[ QUOTE ]
It's fine

[/ QUOTE ]

Shillx, is your reason for this, as others have stated, that you can take the -1.5% EV (or more) now so that you can bubble dominate? Or is there more to it?

[DevinLake]

[ QUOTE ]
folding leaves you in a bad spot if shorty doubles and if you win you're CL, seems close and I think I still probably fold but ignore SNGPT somewhat here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been hearing this argument a lot lately. |We are in bad shape IF the shorty doubles".

For one thing, in this situation we aren't in that bad of shape if he does double unless it is through us.

Further to that, we are in much worse shape if we call and lose, than if the shorty doubles. Much much worse shape.

So, considering the % of times the shorty bubbles is comparable to the amount we bubble if we call here, I just don't see how this is a strong argument for calling.

[Shillx]

Well he's right if the short dude doubles through the big stack. You are all going to outlast each other and drive your equity straight into the ground (~16.7%) while the big stack pushes every hand and cleans up. No way your equity is 27% if you fold and it's going to be more then 38.6% if you call and win. Should you call? I have no idea since it depends on how well you play & how well they play.

I'm tempted to just take a day and do a simulation for this situation but there is no way that calling is a 1.5% mistake. It might be a mistake but not a very big one or it might be a huge winfall.

Put another way...I fully expect to get called by AQs in this situation and it doesn't bother me one bit.