The Well: King Yao

[ImStillBen]

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Can we keep King Yao down in that well permanently?

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And then fill it with cement.

[pktsfullofhope]

You seem like a smart guy. Why not take all the money your going go gamble with in a year and put it into a mutual fund which will earn 4-5% return. As an avid sports better myself, isn't a mutual fund type investment safer and require way less time?

[ImStillBen]

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You seem like a smart guy.

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You don't.

[NajdorfDefense]

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There are positive EV opportunities in ML vs pointspread. A prominent example is during the Super Bowl. The money line and the pointspread often doesn't line up correctly. The people betting on the underdog in the SB are more likely to bet on the moneyline than the people betting on the favorite. So the relationship gets skewed.

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I think the BCS game with Texas v Usc was a great example of this, I think the ML was dropping from +220 to +160 [wide range] at various books while the line was almost always 7.5, but each day and then hour that went by the final day, the ML kept dropping and dropping.

USC ML bettors who also took UT+7.5 almost made a killing, but Vince Young stepped in.

[NajdorfDefense]

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You seem like a smart guy. Why not take all the money your going go gamble with in a year and trade for your personal acct which will earn 40-50% return.

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FYP.

[King Yao]

That is a great example. Interestingly to me, the same thing did not occur in this year's BCS game between Ohio State and Florida. That one seemed to be fairly in-line.

[Fluidity]

[ QUOTE ]
You seem like a smart guy. Why not take all the money your going go gamble with in a year and put it into a mutual fund which will earn 4-5% return. As an avid sports better myself, isn't a mutual fund type investment safer and require way less time?

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mutual fund = low risk, 4-5% return
good sports betting = higher risk, 50+% return

Granted, I'm not betting as safe as Yao right now - I can see my equity fluctuate up to 10% in a given day. But I feel relatively comfortable with the amount of risk I'm exposing myself to.

[NajdorfDefense]

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That is a great example. Interestingly to me, the same thing did not occur in this year's BCS game between Ohio State and Florida. That one seemed to be fairly in-line.

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Yeah, the UT money line was very popular due to Vince and having a much higher ranked D and the #1 ranked Offense that year in Texas. Fla was not so demonstrably better than Ohio, even though I thought they were the easy pick.

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] the retail bettor who somehow believed USC was teh bestest team of alltime, even with Pete Carroll coaching. Heh.
[the ML dropped from 260 to 200, not 220 to 160 on Game Day, but same type of move, obviously.]

[lastsamurai]

King yao..

Whats your opinion on trends?

[HoldingFolding]

1. You have an interesting name - is there a story behind it?
2. What do you think of betfair? Why do you think a betfair type of site hasn't been set up that targets the US market?
3. What's the most satisfying win you've ever had? Why?