100NL - catch a set, scary river

[JefferyLopes18]

Math: Your getting 1.32 on the call, your break even point is being ahead 43% of the time.

SB's action: Called a button raise with one limper, called a 2/3 pot bet on the turn. Donkbets just over 2/3 pot on the river.

We beat any bluff, any one pair, and any two pair and one of the sets (22). If we new some PT stats we could have a better estimate on cold calling from SB ranges. However we are saying he is a donk so he could have a large range of hands and is capable of bluffing here. I think even though the price we are paying sucks, we have a set and I think we are ahead just over 1/3 of the time (plus if we add random donk factor to our equity it may make it just over break even). I call.

[JefferyLopes18]

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You can't always fear the flush, although it's pretty likely here.

I think we are good 40%+ish of the time here, which is all we need.

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Awesome, I agree.