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#1
10-25-2007, 02:52 PM
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TT turn decision
Villain is 91/4/0.36 over 70 hands.
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter UTG: $20.65 MP: $10 CO: $48.70 BTN: $8.50 Hero (SB): $10.65 BB: $16.65 Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB) 2 folds, CO calls $0.10, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.50</font>, BB folds, CO calls $0.40 Flop: ($1.10) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $0.80</font>, CO calls $0.80 Turn: ($2.70) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $1.60</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $10</font>, Hero ?? Am I ever good to call here? 
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#2
10-25-2007, 02:57 PM
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Re: TT turn decision
With your stack size compared to the pot, I am probably calling this raise. I don't believe you can fold the overpair in this situation with no flush possibility out there.
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#3
10-25-2007, 02:59 PM
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Re: TT turn decision
He probably built his stack this way, calling any two preflop, catching trips with his garbage and putting opponents all-in. Fold here and wait for a time when you've got a better hand. His AF is low, so his raises should mean something. I expect him to have 64, 2x, A4, 55, 33.
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#4
10-25-2007, 02:59 PM
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Re: TT turn decision
Even considering his stack size is so small?
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#5
10-25-2007, 03:13 PM
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Re: TT turn decision
We're 30% invested in this pot, I can let it go to save the other 70%. To me, his 90/4/.36 stats say we're dead to 2 outs. His postflop AF matches his PFR, this guy is very passive. He can exploit this by betting huge when he hits an unlikely hand and someone with an overpair thinks there's no way he could have 'that' hand. At least that's what I think.
That being said, Hero's mistake is not taking advantage of this opponent where it matters - bet bigger on the flop(pot) and turn (3/4 or pot). Punish this guy for drawing, he's going to call anyway if he's caught any piece. Make sure that if he does suck out that it was very unproftiable to do so.
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#7
10-25-2007, 03:36 PM
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Re: TT turn decision
FWIW, .36 AF with 91VPIP is fairly aggro. Not saying I wouldn't fold, but I think people are mislead by the low AF.
For explanation go here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...=0&page=0.
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#8
10-25-2007, 03:57 PM
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Re: TT turn decision
.36 AF means he's calling 3 times for every time he is betting or raising. I view that as passive regardless of how many hands he plays.
I think doing some division and saying well if he was 30 VPIP, then his AF would be 1.18 (3x.36) is not an accurate way to look at it. (I didn't read the link, so maybe it already says this).
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