Saved by the river or not?

Hydrant · #1 03-21-2007, 07:37 PM

Just played this hand tonoght, and would like to check if I played it right. UTG+1 is 9/5/2.5 after 200 hands and SB is 14/12/1.

Cryptologic 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, 6 folds, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, SB calls.

Since SB has 12 preflop AF I figured I could get him HU with 3bet, but UTG+1 cold cold 2 SB. Messed up my plan, what whould you put him on? Some kind of a pair?

Flop: (9.00 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, SB calls.

Nobody showed any aggresion so I will bet any turn also, OK? I figured one of them has remaining A.

Turn: (6.00 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, SB calls, Hero calls.

Now this call here is what I wanted to hear comments about with a raiser and a cold caller one of them has to have a remaining A, that way I have only 3 outs and I am getting 11:1. I take my kicker as no good.

River: (12.00 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, SB calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, SB calls, Hero calls.

Here I thought I was saved and tried to trap them both, but am I safe enough to cap?

Final Pot: 21.00 BB.

meep_42 · #2 03-21-2007, 08:05 PM

Based on PF play, I figure UTG has a pocket pair he likes here (probably 99, maybe 66, probably not 88) or a naked A a lot more than he has exactly A9 or even A6. However, on the turn you're not beating much, and the hands you are beating have a lot of kicker-counterfeiting outs.

On the river I think you have to go with the read you had on the turn, cap it up, if he has A9, so be it.

-d

Mr. Orange · #3 03-21-2007, 08:17 PM

I really don't like Preflop at all. The SB isn't really that aggressive preflop. If he was, then 3 betting might be right. When players with stats similiar to UTG limp in EP it's often a mid pair. I don't see UTG folding enough for this play to work.
flop- ok.
turn- your toast. This is a tough fold but I you should lay this down especially given UTG's rocklike stats and the cold caller. Heads up MAYBE I call down . We're definately drawing to 3 outs.
river- Given the way the hand was played I like capping here. You hit the your miracle card and there are several possible hands that UTG could have and would play this aggressively that you beat.

meep_42 · #4 03-21-2007, 08:20 PM

I can't find a fold on the turn here just about ever. Maybe I'm just not good enough to, but I think UTG could be pulling this with just about any A as well as hands that beat us.

-d

Mr. Orange · #5 03-21-2007, 08:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't find a fold on the turn here just about ever. Maybe I'm just not good enough to, but I think UTG could be pulling this with just about any A as well as hands that beat us.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG is 9/5. He is not playing just any A here. If he has an A, he has us beat. And if he doesn't then he usually has a boat. I didn't say it was an easy fold on the turn and sometimes in the heat of the moment I lack the discipline to fold but I think its the right play.

Bob T. · #6 03-22-2007, 05:05 AM

Fold preflop.

Once you make the second nuts on the river, you need to keep betting until you can't bet anymore. The only thing that beats you is A9, and your 9/5 opponent doesn't have that hand UTG. In fact, he probably can't imagine that you have A8 on this hand, and he would probably bet either AK,or 9s full for a long time, if there wasn't a cap online.

Innocentius · #7 03-22-2007, 05:23 AM

I don't think the turn call is as questionable as some replies above indicate. Sure, hero is almost certainly behind, but if the best hand out there is an A with a better kicker, hero has 3 outs to win and 6 outs to draw. That makes for about 6 outs total. If UTG+1 has a boat, hero has 3 outs. A9 seems very unlikely for UTG+1. Given that UTG+1 is reluctant to raise pf, I would put AQs and AJs in his range. All in all, I think the turn call is about neutral EV, especially considering that if we hit one of our 3 real outs, we are likely to get some extra bets on the river.

A9 is very unlikely for UTG+1 in my opinion, so go ahead and cap the river.

James. · #8 03-22-2007, 09:04 AM

ooh. i don't know about that pf 3bet. at first glance i hated it. at second glance you would have position and he IS sort of loose being a 12%PFR, possibly trying to isolate a fit/fold UTG. too much of a parlay, though. calling can't be horrible, but i think folding is probably best.

postflop, there is no folding in this hand, especially the turn. the pot's too big and we have too many outs when behind. on the river, we sucked out(usually). captown. if he has A9 it sucks, it's life, but we will live to fight another day.

Harv72b · #9 03-23-2007, 05:58 AM

Nobody has A9 here. Go ahead and cap the river.

And folding to the turn raise would be very, very bad. Yes, we're almost certainly behind. Very possibly in third place, even. But we have more than enough win/chop outs to justify the call, especially if we cap the river when we hit the perfect card.