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#1
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Re: TPGK facing river aggression
well honestly after thinking about it, it looks like a weak ace more than anything. but i was just saying that you can't discount those hands just because there's a diamond draw on the flop. fwiw i don't think random 3's are going to show up that much...77 is possible, A3 is possible, and other aces are possible too, which probably makes this a call (getting ~43-13, pretty sick odds).
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#2
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Re: TPGK facing river aggression
and one more thing, i'd want to see his river AF before really being able to make a judgement on his range. if it's high, obviously you have to throw some random pairs in there that are trying to win the hand on a bluff.
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#3
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Re: TPGK facing river aggression
I dont think trips are in his range much at all for reasons besides the flush draw though. Is a 22/15 really going to limp any hand that contains a 3 with the possible exception of A3. Even A3 is a probable raise though if he is going to play it. Assuming by some chance he has trips though, most tags will raise this turn for other reasons than just protection I think. I will admit that 77 probably is fully possible when I think about it though. I figured all the times we see an ace though or a busted draw this should be a call.
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#4
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Re: TPGK facing river aggression
yah, i agree about a 3. i've been hit with the weak/tight bug lately, so take what i say with a grain of salt.
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#5
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Re: TPGK facing river aggression
I dunno this is such a weird spot.
I probably call because it's such a small raise, and a lot of idiot villains at these stakes think "Hey! I have 2 pair! I need to raise!", even though the board is paired. FWIW, I've seen some TERRIBLE 25/15 players - do not rely just on stats. I've seen some of the worst post flop players ever run tag'ish numbers preflop. |
#6
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Re: TPGK facing river aggression
Added to note: You line looks a lot like a whiffed FD that took a shot at the river.
Of course, river raises down here pretty much terrify me. |
#7
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Re: TPGK facing river aggression
he easily could have had a7d, missed his flush on the turn and raised on the river with the higher two pair.
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#8
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Re: TPGK facing river aggression
hmm....did villain have a boat by any chance?
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#9
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Re: TPGK facing river aggression
Why bet the river anyway, you dont get much value. Let him bet
middle pair or busted flush trying to represent the 2 big cards on the board. |
#10
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Re: TPGK facing river aggression
And the river raise with an A here is a play usually made by poor player, so this is a fold if he has a clue.
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