AKo 2/4 check flop??

sebastien · #1 10-01-2007, 08:04 AM

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

vilain is unknow

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls

Flop: (9.5 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks (Is it bad?? i think i no fold equity on this flop)

Turn: (4.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls

River: (7.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, 2 folds

Results: 7.75 BB Pot (0.25 BB Rake)
Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and WON 7.5 BB (+5 BB NET)

Wolfram · #2 10-01-2007, 08:21 AM

I bet the flop
1) you very often have 10 outs which means you have an equity advantage vs 2 opponents
2) You can take a free card on the turn if you miss

An argument for not betting is if you get raised by BB he'll successfully isolate you and therefore diminish your equity (you wan't the 3rd guy in to give you a better price on your draw).

As played, turn + river are std.

Edit:
hmm, I'm thinking that 1) is probably not that true because a lot of your outs have to be counterfeited. The board is so coordinated that checking behind might very well be optimal.

TheGoon · #3 10-01-2007, 08:25 AM

This is the easy c-bet.There is 9.5SB in the pot you only have to take this down 10% of the time to be profitable as a pure bluff. You also have 2 overs and gutshot.
Your turn call is fine with almost 7/1 pot odds and river bet is standard.

Wolfram · #4 10-01-2007, 09:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is the easy c-bet.There is 9.5SB in the pot you only have to take this down 10% of the time to be profitable as a pure bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's anywhere near 10% chance that we're taking this down with a c-bet. It's probably closer to 0%.

jessie · #5 10-01-2007, 09:59 AM

I bet flop here. Even if raised you should have 7 outs (discounting Kings) including 4 to the nuts. Not betting flop pretty much guarantees a donk bet and eliminates any chance of checking through the turn.

Absolution · #6 10-01-2007, 10:02 AM

I would probably bet the flop for a free card since I really don't mind getting raised here. This is a scary flop for them as well if they have a weak A or an small pair. I would rather check a 78Tss flop than this one.

Absolution · #7 10-01-2007, 10:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is the easy c-bet.There is 9.5SB in the pot you only have to take this down 10% of the time to be profitable as a pure bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's anywhere near 10% chance that we're taking this down with a c-bet. It's probably closer to 0%.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the only reason to bet. We have a lot of equity here when we are called (A is probably good, backdoor flush draw, and nut straight draw) and we have position. If we get it heads up we can probably make another bet on the turn and see a free showdown against a T as well. Saying this is close to 0% is ridiculous. This is a semi-bluff/value-bet.

jba · #8 10-01-2007, 10:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is the easy c-bet.There is 9.5SB in the pot you only have to take this down 10% of the time to be profitable as a pure bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's anywhere near 10% chance that we're taking this down with a c-bet. It's probably closer to 0%.

[/ QUOTE ]

not only that, but in order for it to work as a "bluff" as he states, he has to fold a BETTER HAND 10% of the time. unpossible.

I don't mind the check but if there's a good chance they'll just call and check to you on turn it's worth a bet for a free card. those games are tough to find though.

Wolfram · #9 10-01-2007, 10:25 AM

abso,
plz read my original reply.

[ QUOTE ]
Saying this is close to 0% is ridiculous

[/ QUOTE ]
What I meant was that I think the likelihood of a c-bet taking down the pot uncontested is closer to 0% than it is to 10% (probably somewhere around 0-2%).

With an utg raiser and a cold caller in the pot, someone always has enough of a piece to peel, pluss the pot is big which means underpairs will often peel to try to spike a set (bad play but you know it happens).