Stud variance :(

[Red_Diamond]

Today I had my worst session of hell this year.
Despite playing vs total predicatable pay-stations and other donkeys, I lost EVERY god damn pot I built up. If I had a straight donkeys caught a flush, I have a flush they fill up for a boat. If I have trips I never fill up and you gessed it, I lose to a straight or flush. I lost monster after monster and here I am just cringing since my opponents were playing as foolish as can be.

Over a month's work of hard scraping of $$$ all shot down the tubes in one single day to RETARDS! Since early this morning when this pattern started I kept telling myself this will change, things will turn around. NOPE! All day the card Gods laugh as I take one beat after another. No other profession seems to be so cruel I think.

Someone say something before I go kill myself for being such a total failure?

[The Worm]

After a while you just have to walk away. When I am in the middle of a bad session, I convince myself to stay and keep playing. Even tho you you think you are playing well, you will still be playing with a little bit of tilt and anger. I find myself calling down some hands I shouldnt be. This just adds to the frustration. Just walk away, walk away.

[Brad1970]

Same here. Baaad downswing. Lost approximately 80% of bankroll in last month.

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
Same here. Baaad downswing. Lost approximately 80% of bankroll in last month.

[/ QUOTE ]

that is pretty bad. you need to move down in limits before this happens!

Downswings happen. I bet there is not a single player who hasn't had a rough couple months...if they tell you so, they just haven't played enough hands. Bankroll management is very important as there is a lot of variance inherent in the game....review your stats and make sure you are plugging all your leaks as well as possible.

only thing that sucks is when that variance comes from all your money being tied up in neteller with no way to deposit though [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[Sevenfold]

Not saying this is your problem, but....

A whole month of winnings gone in one session? Likely you are quitting with very small wins, 'locking it up' for the day. While this may ensure you a decent nights sleep, it might, I say might, give you a false sense of how you are really doing overall.

The fact you win (for example, say) 85% of the time is meaningless. BB/100 over time will tell you the truth.

I personally find myself playing poorly while getting shown gut shot after gut shot after rolled down 3's, though I usually take a break and pump myself back up. It is easy while losing to say, just 1 more street, after all, whats one more sb at this point.

All those bets add up though.

As Sklansky points out, playing in this fashion means you are theoretically quitting while playing well and/or in a good game, while putting in longer sessions while playing not as well in a (usually) tougher game.

Even while losing in a wild game, it's easy to find excuses to play extra hands. "I'm going to play these pocket 6's because if I hit I'm going to win a big pot." Good bye 2 or 3 more bets.

Now you might say, "None of that applies to me, I played really well, and they just sucked out."

If thats true, great, just keep playing solid poker and things will even out.

Just food for thought.

[Poker CPA]

"that is pretty bad. you need to move down in limits before this happens!"

Please don't

[cgrohman]

Stud has variance. Feel better?

[Wahoo73]

Although I suppose this entire thread ought to be in the BBV forum, I can understand why you would post it here inasmuch as it is only this relatively small community of stud players that is going to have any real sense of what you (and I and others) are going through when the inevitable massive stud variance downswing occurs.

I'm not going to pretend that I have any sure-fire solutions or profound advice that is going to reverse your slump. The suggestions that have already been provided by others in this thread all have merit. What I can offer you is some reassurance that you are not alone. Here is my testemonial.

In the wake of the UIGEA, I was forced to find a new poker site to play at. I previously had played predominantly at two Cryptologic sites for the previous 14 months and had been consistently successful at both, registering winning months 10 out of 14 at one of the sites and 12 out of 14 at the other. But with the UIGEA being enacted, I began playing at FullTilt Poker on October 10th. About 80% of my play since then has been in stud games either double-tabling 1/2, or single-tabling 3/6 or 5/10. For the 21 days in October I played, I won a little over $500. In Novemeber, I won a little over $600. In December, I won just under $1000. During the first 28 days of January, I won about $650. Then the marathon of bad-beats, suckouts, etc. by all of those fish, donkeys, maniacs and morons who I had been pummeling for four months began. Between January 29th and February 10th I lost about $800. Since then, I seem to have stopped hemorrhaging chips and have had a couple of small winning sessions.

My point is that even poker players who have a consistently winning track-record experience slumps. You can't avoid them. The hard part is minimizing them, i.e., being able to exercise enough self-control that you keep from losing even more. In other words, when things are going bad in a session figure out a way to be satisfied that you only lost half of a buy-in instead of losing two or three. Believe me, this is easier said than done, as I'm still trying to instill this amount of discipline in my own game.

Good luck with surviving your slump.

[jordiepop]

I find that i struggle setting losS limits. This is something you might want to consider. its not the same as setting win limits, which is horrible, because when im losing it makes me play worse, so after awhile it isn't just variance anymore. Dont quit winners just to lock up a + for the day either. And we all know how crappy you feel. it will pass. Stud is BRUTAL.

[Red_Diamond]

argggh. Well yesterday I couldn't take anymore. I shut everything down, went and Played Civ IV all night and tried to get my mind off all those beats. Today I woke up, decided it's a new day, and I can start new & fresh. I decided to wipe out all superstitions of card gods screwing me and play my best ( as always).

Nope... Again this morning my bad streak just continued at my tables. I got sucked out and sucked out over & over again. By the same retards. That is Capital R for RETARD. I don't think Donkey is a term I want to use at this point. I have AAK for example with A showing. I raise first to act. And the 100% vpip donkey of course calls. I pair my ace... TRIP ACES! I'm raising again. Donkey who starts with 27Q rainbow of course calls all the way without so much as a pair or flush draw and backdoors some crazy low straight. Over and over this morning I just could do absolutely NO RIGHT!!!

I don't play on tilt, but I sure am feeling certain effects trying to come through. Just for the reccord, I have read Chip's stud chapter for years and know it by heart, I also have read and re-read Ray Zee's ADVANCED stud over & over again. I still don't claim to be an expert, but I do know a fair well I think? At least far more than these... 'RETARDS'

Again I am puzzled, at how can I possibly ever move up the limits in this rediculous variance game when RETARDS are just kicking my a$$ left and right.

I was hoping today to reply to this thread and report some different news.. how really playing well does turn around and add +ev, unfortuntaly I've just dug myself a bigger hole.

I'm taking a break now to hide my head back under the rock I was hiding under yesterday. Just MAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYBE later on today I'll try another stab at this downswing. I don't know but I definitely need another break.