tough spot on the turn with trips

[bubaloo]

villain is unknown. fwiw he open-limped.

Pacific Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.5
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $40.5
UTG+1: $112.03
Bub: $63.28
Button: $55.14
SB: $52.5
BB: $29.39

Pre-flop: (6 players) Bub is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Bub calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($2.75, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Bub bets $2</font>, Button folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($8.75, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Bub bets $5.5</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $38</font>, Bub ....?

[spacetime]

Im not really sure why you limped preflop.

On to the turn. Your bet size looks fine to me. As far as his range goes we can probably throw out 77+. If he had an overpair, he is going to be either raising this flop, or he is going to be flat calling this (seemingly) scary turn for his hand. Ill leave one overpair in his range jic.

Heres a quick range with some 6's he could have, sets and str8's. He could have also picked up a BDFD with the hearts, but I really can't think of one to put him on.

Note that if he is NEVER doing this with an overpair, then our equity drops to 29%

Board: 3c 6c 2h 6h
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.803% 34.98% 03.82% 631 69.00 { 6s5s }
Hand 1: 61.197% 57.37% 03.82% 1035 69.00 { 77, 33-22, A6s, 96s, 86s, 76s, 64s, 54s, 96o, 86o, 76o, 64o, 54o }

Your getting ~1.6 to 1 on the call. If you throw in another FD or overpair this becomes a call.

edit for noob question:
To determine the equity needed to call when you know the pot odds, is it 1/(1.6+1) = 38% or just simply 1/1.6 = 62% ?

[bsball8806]

[ QUOTE ]

Im not really sure why you limped preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Don't really mind this that much, after 2 have already limped.

Don't really like betting the flop with middle pair, though.

Easy call on the turn after he c/r you. I actually think he has an overpair, and either is terrible, *or* was going for the limp/reraise with JJ+, and is now trying to overplay it to make up for his missed pf raise.

I don't see him having 45, a higher 6, or 33/22 to make this a fold.

[spacetime]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't see him having 45, a higher 6, or 33/22 to make this a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

So he will limp 77+ but is not capable of limping 22/33? If he is going to be passive on the flop with 77+ (thinking he is strong, judging by turn play), he is going to be passive with a set. He could very well have an overpair now that I think about it more, but 22/33 are in his range IMO (If we make his range 77-99 our equity jumps to 52%)

[bsball8806]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I don't see him having 45, a higher 6, or 33/22 to make this a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

So he will limp 77+ but is not capable of limping 22/33? If he is going to be passive on the flop with 77+ (thinking he is strong, judging by turn play), he is going to be passive with a set. He could very well have an overpair now that I think about it more, but 22/33 are in his range IMO (If we make his range 77-99 our equity jumps to 52%)

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course he can have 33/22, but there are so many more combinations of 77+ that he has, that it just seems much more likely to me.

[anthb7210p]

[ QUOTE ]
1/(1.6+1) = 38%

[/ QUOTE ]