Stars 2nd chance line check

[Bond18]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t2980)
UTG+1 (t2980)
MP1 (t3030)
MP2 (t2940)
Hero (t2970)
CO (t2950)
Button (t3180)
SB (t2970)
BB (t3000)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t60</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t180</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t120.

Flop: (t380) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t220</font>, Hero calls t220.

Turn: (t820) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t820) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t520</font>, Hero?


Can we ever hope to see a worse pair/AK enough here to call? Hows line up to river?

[KneeCo]

We don't really need to be able see a worse pair here to call, do we? Although I believe we sometimes do see those hands, let's assume he's only 3 betting pf with JJ+/AK, it's still not an auto-muck I think.

My thought process proceeds as follows:

Assuming there's nothing in his post-flop play which let's us favor the JJ/KK/AA part of his range as significantly more prevalent than AK, hero should still call here, because you only need him to have AK 28% of the time when in fact he's got it nearly half the time mathematically (47% - 16 possibilities of AK and six each of JJ, KK, AA, obv QQ is removed cause it's impossible).

Of course a thinking player won't be bluffing (or value betting in some cases) his AK on the river here all the time, but we only need him to bluff/value bet 60% of his AK hands (while betting all his pairs) to make the call +EV. So we can call even if he has us crushed pf, assuming he usually takes this line with AK.

Which only leaves the question of whether or not he does, which is hard to say with no reads/context info.

[adanthar]

against a thinking opponent this'd be a sick bluff raise

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
against a thinking opponent this'd be a sick bluff raise

[/ QUOTE ]

What?

I like a call on the river.