KJs vs LP mcTAG opener

[corsakh]

I don't like preflop. 3bet like always.
I hate flop. People bluff on uncoordinated paired boards like there is no tomorrow. You respresent exactly one hand - 33.

On the river his range is very polarized. Its QQ, AA, JJ, AQ or a flush draw. He might have missed a c/r on the turn. But given that your flop range is very polarized too, I am not sure he would want to give spades a free card.

Basically my points are the following:
- your hand looks like air, flush draw or 33 no matter how you look at it;
- his hand looks like a flush draw or at least top two no matter how you look at it;
- his position says there are many more draws in his range than there are there are monsters.

Trouble is he might have the nut flush draw. So I am not totally sure here. I dont think he bets it though cos there is no worse hand in your range that you call him with.

[P0kerJunkie]

I'm gonna go ahead and ask a damn noob question- i don't have PAHUD tho so maybe that helps explain it. is a 24 VPIP really characteristic of a "meowchow" TAG player? aren't TAGs closer to 17 or 18 VPIP? also not sure what the 2p2 means in this situation- prior to the stats. Thanks.

[corsakh]

Meochow is more of a pfr to vpip ratio.
20/10 is a meochow. 20/15 usually is not.

[anthb7210p]

am I missing something here? Fold the flop. Turn is a bad card to bluff cause it hits "mctags" range hard.

[P0kerJunkie]

right, i see. a little less imaginative with the 20/10, i guess. still, isn't 24 VPIP a bit high for a player to really be classified at 'tag'? i've read that 17 or 18 is about normal for a TAGgy player

[genius55]

I think I play the same except maybe fold preflop because of all the game considerations i.e. deepstacked fish u want to reserve your stack against.

i don't mind flop but if he just calls, i think he is not going to fold this turn so much. also fold flop is prob better as someone already said.


plus I think QQ/AA is def a serious part of his range u can't exclude so passive play seems ok.

[Hail Eris]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate flop. People bluff on uncoordinated paired boards like there is no tomorrow. You respresent exactly one hand - 33.

...

- your hand looks like air, flush draw or 33 no matter how you look at it

[/ QUOTE ]

People also float these boards like no tomorrow, so saying "float cause he expects a raise," makes no sense. If he can expect a raise, he can expect a float. Are we just folding this flop that he misses way more often than not but cbets always? Because we're assuming that this 50NL tagfish villain will perfectly adjust as soon as we make our first play?

Anyway, raising this flop is obviously bad if your range for raising is defined as exactly 33/FD/Air (although that is already obviously bad; there's clearly a shitton of value in raising Queens here, as this discussion illustrates), but it's not like our villain knows or even expects this to be the case. Sure he may suspect that we're FOS, but is he really going to float us OOP with A high or 3bet bluff with no significant history?

[ama0330]

I dont feel too good about 3betting AJs preflop, let alone KJs. Did I miss something where all of a sudden it became standard to 3bet mid-range crap?

I think a fold is fine preflop, and its what I would usually do, but a call is okay also. I would almost never 3bet KJs here unless I was battling the guy or had some reason to do so and I would rather have 72o than KJs tbh.

Flop raise is bad, I would just float or fold. Whats the deal with people never folding on this forum? Even CTS talks about raising his folding frequency in his latest blog. If you want to float, look to take it away when the spade hits or raise the river or something, but id rather just fold flop.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont feel too good about 3betting AJs preflop, let alone KJs. Did I miss something where all of a sudden it became standard to 3bet mid-range crap?


[/ QUOTE ]

No, its more that you seem to have become convinced that 3bet ranges have to be polarised between 'bluffs' and valueraises. that is important against some players but it's not the whole story imo.

warning! tl;dr alert!

I think a lot of people in uNL need to take a big step back and realise that a lot of common phrases like 'turning your hand into a bluff' are really just shortcuts and they don't apply in every instance. you are really turning your hand into a semibluff for a start, and it is important how much equity you have when called etc etc.

hard work as it is, we need to think about the equities and the expectations much more than we are. i don't think i've seen any equity discussion at all in this thread thus far.

one reason is that it is HARD to work out the expectation of calling pre. <u>but we can get an idea of the value of 3betting</u>:

taking a calling range as {qq/jj+,ak}, we have about 25% equity when called.

so EV when called is going to be something like

.25($14.5) - $7 = -$3.4

so if he was just opening {jj+,ak} it would be a big mistake to rr with kjs. it would also be a mistake to call since

25% &lt;&lt; 42% (the pot odds we are getting)

that's too big a gap to make up with position, implied odds, steal equity yada yada...

But most player's ranges are much wider than that. Let's see how wide a range it needs to be for a reraise with KJs to be profitable according to our conservative (but probably fairly accurate of 25% pot equity when called):

a fold to our reraise nets us +$2.75

to find the breakeven FE we need

(FE)2.75 - (1-FE)3.4 = 0

solving for FE gives a required FE of 55%:

.55*2.75 - .45*3.4 = 0

sooooo he needs to fold &gt;55% of the time.

I don't have Poker Stove here at the moment, but I think an opening range of {99+,AJ+} gives the required amount of FE for reraising to be profitable. his 12% range (assuming he is not positionally aware) is wider than this.

so with that in mind, could the proponents of calling please explain with similar logic how calling is 1) definately profitable 2) more profitable than raising?

(hint: calling and playing fit or fold is not profitable against {99+,AJ+} or {12%} without considering implied odds)

I know those questions are harder to work out than the value of reraising, but that's partly the point.

finally i know some people will say the maths is too hard to get an accurate answer. there is a lot of truth in that. where the maths really helps is by giving us much more clarity when we are talking about hands, instead of just passing around well-worn phrases.

to put it another way, even if we can't solve the equations, constructing them is still very helpful for framing our discussion, and it's something uNL needs to do more.

[members_only]

[ QUOTE ]
thing is if I call and fire the turn - or as played fire the turn and get raised and have to call or w/e and miss I am back to 100bb.

There is a deep stacked fish at the table and playing the hand this way passively means I lose the least when I don't hit and then still have a 150bb stack to go fish shooting with.

I think villain fires a whiffed draw here a chunk of the time - tho I'd guess Axss is some of those "missed" draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's so important, stop getting tricky wit da tag!

As played I think I agree with Traz, Hail etc that there is no unequivocally best play on any street