NL25 AK preflop in limp+raise+call pot, NLHTAP concept

WantToLearn · #1 11-20-2007, 06:32 PM

Hi 2+2, some advice needed, and thank you very much in advance!

Ok I know that asking a question about preflop play with AKo clearly shows I am not a pro, but anyway: there is limping, a raise and a call before me, and I am unsure about what to do. "Wait, what? This guy has a premium hand and has position on the players already in the hand, and there´s any question left?" Well, yes. The Raiser is a decent player (speaking in NL25 terms) and he will not give me the pot often for a normal c-bet, but I don´t want to 3-bet and then play fit or fold either, nor do I want a family pot. So here goes:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($21.80)
MP2 ($29.80)
MP3 ($34.20)
CO ($5.45)
Hero ($24.90)
SB ($25.75)
BB ($19.45)
UTG ($11.20)
UTG+1 ($6.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 raises to $1.25, CO calls $1.25, Hero raises to $24.9,

Here´s my thought process:
--> MP3 is multitabler, playing abc but not dull, plus CO (who´s 11-tabling) also deserves some credit here
--> I play 18/12/2.5/c-bets a lot
--> villains do probably have these stats on the screen
--> when I shoved, I though of concept No 22 in NLHTAP. It says that moving in w/ AK is frequently correct when there is raise-call action before you (out of position example is given, though). That is because the original raiser has AA/KK only sometimes, there´s ~30% equity against KK, AK is only a very small underdog against all other pocket pairs, plus in reality favourites like JJ,TT,22 etc. might fold. So the money in the pots that shoving AK wins uncontested makes more than up for the losses that sometimes there are. The example in the book, however, is about raise-call-call before AK acts, and it is about risking 80BB to win 15. Here, I risk more to win less should MP3 come along, but less if CO should come along. How about?
--> If I make a normal sized raise, they might fold. Then, going all-in doesn´t hurt me (assuming they won´t call an ai where they fold to a normal raise). If MP3 calls, he is prepared to play a big pot, and he will probably not surrender to a c-bet (which is large, given the pot-size we have then), given he know my high c-bet number, plus he might very well have a middlish pair, which might at least be an overpair if the flop comes w/o A;K. He´s not the kind who calls too much preflop and folds too much to c-bets. Firing a second barrel when missing the flop doesn´t feel good either - I am actually risking very very much when I already missed the flop, so why not try to make them fold before the flop in the first place? Playing fit-or-fold is not a good reason to raise, either.
--> I don´t want the family pot that I´ll see if I only call here.
--> so what´s the play?