NLTRN - Do I go broke here?

[phatjeffrey]

emm.. doesnt the buyin have any effect on the decision in the hand ?

anyways.. id fold the flop .. i think were up against a combo draw or some kind of pair + flush draw hand and i wouldnt want to take a coinflip this early, especially because we only have a pair of 9's with a 7 kicker..

[abcjnich]

Seems if you move in you're either crushed or at most a 2:1 fav. Fold, you've only put in about 15% of your stack. You're only ahead if he's not very good.

[slimbob]

easy fold against a standard player

[Dromar]

At first glance, I would fold here unless I had a read. IMO, his CR is large enough that this becomes a push/fold situation, and as mentioned already, if you push and get called (which will almost always happen), you'll never be way ahead, but you could easily be way behind.

To push, you need to win 1245/2910 = 42.78%.
I did a little pokerstoving, and gave raising range at:
66,22,A9s,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,KdJd,KdTd, K9s,Kd6d,QdJd,QdTd,Qd6d,
JdTd,Jd6d,Td8d,Td7d,Td6d,87s,8d6d,8d5d,7d6d,7d5d,6 d5d,6d4d,A9o,K9o,87o

Giving you 38.9% equity, which makes this a fold. It's important to note, however, that if he's bluffing 10% here, your equity shoots up amazingly to 45.1%, which supports a push. A bit more pokerstove work says the push/fold equilibrium point is when his CR is a bluff one time out of 22! So, surprisingly (to me at least), pushing is slightly better here, IF he bluffs 5% or more. That's player dependent of course, especially since this isn't (IMO) a very common bluffing situation. But 5% is pretty easy to get to. So I guess my recommendation is pushing here, at least when using the range I gave villain.

That said, in game, I would have folded most of the time here sans read. I'll have to rethink those situations a bit.

As for calling:
The only way to justify a call here is if there's a good chance he's on a draw (which is the case here, I'd say), and you believe he'll check/fold when a blank hits, or you're prepared to call his AI on the turn when a blank hits, AND are prepared to fold when a diamond hits. So I suppose calling could be an okay play here, under some player-specific circumstances, but it's not a play I make very often.


Edit: Also, including $buy-in would help the analysis a bit.

[Dromar]

[ QUOTE ]

Giving you 38.9% equity, which makes this a fold. It's important to note, however, that if he's bluffing 10% here, your equity shoots up amazingly to 45.1%, which supports a push. A bit more pokerstove work says the push/fold equilibrium point is when his CR is a bluff one time out of 22! So, surprisingly (to me at least), pushing is slightly better here, IF he bluffs 5% or more. That's player dependent of course, especially since this isn't (IMO) a very common bluffing situation. But 5% is pretty easy to get to. So I guess my recommendation is pushing here, at least when using the range I gave villain.


[/ QUOTE ]

I somehow forgot in the above post that he's going to fold to your push when he's bluffing, resulting in less profit from catching his bluffs. So that pushes the equilibrium point to probably 10% chance he'll bluff. It was iffy before IMO at 5%, so I think this makes it a fold. Of course, it's close, as many difficult decisions are.

[ChicagoRy]

It's a mistake to only include 6dXd hands in your pokerstove range. A lot of terrible players have a 6 in their range, and a lot of players if they are bluffing with this raise will end up calling the shove with two overcards.

This is a clear push against a lot of bad low level players and OP said he was new to husngs so I figured this is a low level game, 6-11s or something.

[Landonfan]

It's an $11.