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#1
01-31-2007, 12:48 AM
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Horse Betting
Since horse racing is legal and all to bet on online, I figure I might start trying to learn a new game. Of course like poker I don't expect to head out to the track and crush the pools right away, and actually would be happy simply being a modest winner. I really like horse racing, I have spent hundreds of hours playing Winning Post 6/7, a Japanese horse simulation game (greatest game ever, so good it's worth learning the language to play), which I know has nothing to do with ability to beat the sport.
Anyway, first question, is horse racing really beatable? I assume yes as I hear of tons of pro handicappers, but I know lots of "big winners" at poker as well, and isn't the vig like 20%? I also hear that you can get rebates betting online, what sites offer the best rebates/lowest vig/best bonuses/etc. for US players? Are there any good reasons to bet live over online? Second question, if it is beatable, what are some books/sites to read to get started? I know that all these "system" and tout sites are almost certainly total BS, but what are the best online information services for people looking to cap themselves? What kind of time committment does it take to be successful at this? How long does it take to become a winner from someone just starting out? If you are a pro/know pros well, a description of the type of schedule you go through in terms of research and betting would be totally awesome. Any other tips you would have for people starting out in handicapping would be great as well. 
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#4
01-31-2007, 02:16 AM
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Re: Horse Betting
[ QUOTE ]
Is horse racing really beatable? What kind of time committment does it take to be successful at this? [/ QUOTE ] The answers to your questions are yes and full-time. Start with this article. Enjoy.
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#5
01-31-2007, 03:04 AM
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Re: Horse Betting
I'm here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. [ QUOTE ] Anyway, first question, is horse racing really beatable? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but it is much easier to beat the races as a group unless you are personally very well capitalized. For one thing the data that my syndicate uses runs about 20K a year, also if you wanted to take shots at Pick 6 carryovers you need a huge roll. Even if you plan on attacking the races yourself without data files you still going to need PPs, sheets or thorographs. Thorographs are 25$/track/day which is quite a cost to overcome with a typical starting roll. [ QUOTE ] I also hear that you can get rebates betting online, what sites offer the best rebates/lowest vig/best bonuses/etc. for US players? [/ QUOTE ] With Pinny gone there is no clear #1 one racebook. Bodog or BetCris provide a 3% rebate on win bets (which is hopefully all you'll be betting at the beginning) and your money is safe there. I am less sure of the safety of a site like ehorse which offers 5% to high volume players. IMO a 3% rebate book and an account with ehorse exchange (ehorsex) are the minimum requirements for a serious horseplayer at this point. The Vig is about 12-14% in the win pool betting with a rebate book and around 3% at the exchange (although beware..the exchange odds are sharper than the track odds). [ QUOTE ] Are there any good reasons to bet live over online? [/ QUOTE ] No, never, none. As for the other questions, touts are almost always losing, and the syndicates that sell winning picks do so only to well capitalized individuals because they expect a percentage of the profits, you are unlikely to find a group like this because they don't need to advertise, they get a few customers through personal referrals and most customers are lifers. I was a 'lifer' before I was a successful handicapper myself. Books: Handicapper's Condition Book - Quinn; The Complete Handicapper's Guide (don't remember author, its on loan); Winning Horseplayer, Beyer; Betting Thorobreds, Davidowitz I personally don't believe there are any public forums that are frequented by winning players, as posting picks is going to hurt your payouts. If there are private fourms, I am not aware of them. I really can't speak of the day of the individual handicapper as I have never been one. I would imagine that you would be pouring over PPs and perhaps Thorograph data of about 4 tracks. I can usually absorb a PP in about 5 minutes per race but that is after a couple years of doing it recreationally. At that rate you would need about 4 hours of prep some of which could be done during the races. Then you are going to be staring at a tote for about 5 hours to determine if you should bet, this is probably the hardest part and I still suck at it. My overall recommedation would be to do it as a hobby at first, read the books and see if you can make sense of the PPs in ways that the average person can not. If you are totally enthralled as an amatuer and you are making money you can make the personal decision as to whether you would have the discipline and will to do this everyday. You would need a pretty substantial roll to go it alone. I would think at least 20K as your ROI may be small at the beginning.
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#7
01-31-2007, 03:57 AM
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Re: Horse Betting
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Are there any good reasons to bet live over online? [/ QUOTE ] No, never, none. [/ QUOTE ] Isnt it important to see how the horses are acting in the paddock? [/ QUOTE ] With the time you spend examining the horses in the paddock you could be 'capping three other tracks. It is overrated to say the least, in most races you will see nothing at all, I don't believe anyone could make up the 3%+ ROI improvement you get by betting offshore. I do enjoy it though on a warm summer day up at Monmouth, smoking a cigar..good times.
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#8
05-25-2007, 01:13 AM
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Re: Horse Betting
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Are there any good reasons to bet live over online? [/ QUOTE ] No, never, none. [/ QUOTE ] Isnt it important to see how the horses are acting in the paddock? [/ QUOTE ] Not really.
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#9
05-27-2007, 01:07 PM
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Re: Horse Betting
The wife and I are heading to Golden Gate Fields tomorrow for pure entertainment.
I have never attended a horse race in my life, let alone bet on one and any (extremely) basic betting tips would be appreciated. Thanks...
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#10
01-31-2007, 08:19 PM
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Re: Horse Betting
[ QUOTE ]
Books: Handicapper's Condition Book - Quinn; The Complete Handicapper's Guide (don't remember author, its on loan); Winning Horseplayer, Beyer; Betting Thorobreds, Davidowitz [/ QUOTE ] What do you think about Ziemba's book and the efficacy of looking for anomalies in the Place, Show, and exotic pools? Do you handicap harness racing? Which offers more value, Standardbreds or Thoroghbreds? Or is a matter of there being many more betting opportunities with Thorobreds?
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Hybrid Mode
