NPL 2.5k @ Venetian, TV Table / Money bubble w/ TT

[FatalError]

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serge the more I think about him he may even fold AK/JJ to a shove from jon in this spot and jon told me he was playing like 60/40 and getting laggier on this bubble. So basically this could become a +EV shove not for relative strength but just how much they fold as well as those behind us only calling with QQ+ or even KK+ fearing they are either fliping or behind with QQ.

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well if he folds AK/JJ it's definitely a snap shove...

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Uhhh he's not?

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i just 3 bet shoved him last hand, he might fold JJ, but not AK

[WarDekar]

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well if he folds AK/JJ it's definitely a snap shove...

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Uhhh he's not?

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i just 3 bet shoved him last hand, he might fold JJ, but not AK

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I dunno, if I'm him (I'm not) there's no F-ing way I'm folding JJ to a shove here.

Would any of you? That's a little ridiculous IMO

[IWEARGOGGLES]

Shoving > 3-betting > calling > folding.

[adanthar]

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well if he folds AK/JJ it's definitely a snap shove...

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Uhhh he's not?

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i just 3 bet shoved him last hand, he might fold JJ, but not AK

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I dunno, if I'm him (I'm not) there's no F-ing way I'm folding JJ to a shove here.

Would any of you? That's a little ridiculous IMO

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I never would but I'm not a live pro who waits for better spots etc. so the statement in itself isn't totally outrageous.

all I mean is, if shoving lets him play exactly perfectly I think calling is better/if he folds so much as 1 better hand I think shoving is plainly the best option because he'll never have enough combos of the nuts to make anything else work.

[BKiCe]

given the 99 hand from the sb where he completed and then reraised hero's bb raise, isn't three betting to like 9.5k (giving him room to shove his ATC) and snap calling his shove significantly better than outright shoving?

[TheNewf]

I just shove, I think it gets less respect here given history and avoids stupid flop scenarios. edit: he doesn't understand restealing theory probably and just sees this as another all-in from the crazy internet kid, even though for 30xBB you obv have a hand

[FatalError]

i shoved, BB woke up with KK gg

I hated shoving on the ride home but i'm ok with it now, i do think there is a lot of merit to flatting but maybe not against toto who honestly plays very well postflop

[dankhank]

i don't understand why 3-betting to 9k and then folding to a push is so bad. the only hand toto pushes that we aren't behind, is AK, plus the rare occasion when he makes a move with 98s or AJ or something. also if you can't get any read on toto when he pushes as to whether he has AA-KK or AK or 98s, then good for toto, and bad for you.

i read somewhere on this forum just the other day how someone "ran the numbers" and said it was barely okay to 3-bet AQ for 1/3rd your stack and fold to re-raise.

pushing allin-in with TT here, you trap yourself if someone has a monster. i like to think i play good enough where i'm trying to avoid traps when i have a viable stack.

[curtains]

Why is everyone guessing. We don't even know the exact prize structure? Almost every single response didn't do any math at all when in reality this is almost purely a math problem. It's 100% certainty that pushing allin is +CeV (I've already done the math on this, it isn't even close against his likely opening range), we just have to determine whether it's more +EV than calling or do some kind of ICM calculations to determine whether pushing is correct against UTG's raising range.

Anyway I don't know the exact prize structure so I didn't even bother trying. The more top heavy it is, the better pushing will be. The flatter it is, the worse pushing will be.