Stud Hi kings vs a scary board with dead cards.

[NinaWilliams]

Table has been a typical loose low limit table. Seat 4 is a terrible calling station who plays almost every hand.

7 Card Stud High ($1/$2), Ante $0.20, Bring-In $0.25 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.40 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls

4th Street - (7.40 SB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (5.70 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls

6th Street - (9.70 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks

River - (9.70 BB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___checks___calls

Total pot: (11.70 BB - $23.40)

[Jeff76]

I bet 6th to charge a flush draw and try to get a free showdown if we don't make kings up or better. No way do I believe he has a made flush with his level of passivity on 6th and the number of dead cards.

[TheSalche]

Jeff,
Although it is unlikely that villain has the flush, there are 5 dead and villain would be drawing at a 4-outer which she is pretty much priced into, not including possibility of getting trips.

As played I like the river bet, you get called by two pair a lot here.

Suggestion - check 4th and hope for a check/raise or just bet 5th. With 5 people behind you, at the 1/2 game, I'm surprised you got two people out. Yes they are calling stations, but they can get really lucky. Better to keep the pot a bit smaller and bet 5th assuming not uber-scary boards.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
Although it is unlikely that villain has the flush, there are 5 dead and villain would be drawing at a 4-outer which she is pretty much priced into, not including possibility of getting trips.

[/ QUOTE ]Right, even if villain is priced in, we still gain by betting if we are ahead.

[bigredlemon]

Although relatively dead, villain is showing 3 to a straight flush and a pair on 6th, and all we have is one pair. I'm not convinced there's any value in the bet. I'd check 6th because he will very likely bet the river with anything, so we win the same amount if we don't improve, we don't have the fold what might be the best hand to a raise, we aren't charging ourselves if we're behind, and we make our river decision easier.

[TheSalche]

[ QUOTE ]
Although relatively dead, villain is showing 3 to a straight flush and a pair on 6th, and all we have is one pair. I'm not convinced there's any value in the bet. I'd check 6th because he will very likely bet the river with anything, so we win the same amount if we don't improve, we don't have the fold what might be the best hand to a raise, we aren't charging ourselves if we're behind, and we make our river decision easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

He explained why checking 6th is much better than I did. The point is that we only gain a little bit by betting here when we're ahead, but we lose a lot when we're behind. What if we bet 6th and get raised? If we call that, then we almost have to call the river too.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet 6th to charge a flush draw and try to get a free showdown if we don't make kings up or better. No way do I believe he has a made flush with his level of passivity on 6th and the number of dead cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right about this specific hand because as the action went it's almost impossible he has anything but a 4flush and a pair, but when there is a real chance he may have the flush betting 6th has to be a mistake. You're betting with a minisicule edge, he makes virtually no mistake by calling. If this was all there was to think about you should still bet, but there is more going on. If he raises you here (not this specific guy, but similar spot with a flush possiblilty (or worse 4flush+pair)) can you really call blind and then call the river with a naked pair?

Easier way to think about it. When you bet he might call 65% of the time as a tiny dog. 25% of the time he raises as a lock, and 10% of the time he's semi-bluffing (and this % goes way higher the tougher the game). Is this still a good spot to bet? No way.

If the opponent is super passive then bet folding is fine, but if you're incapable of that bet/call/call stinks. If the opponent is agressive or good or even if you're just lost I hate betting 6th.

[Andy B]

I don't see anything I'd do differently.

Bandied.

[Bartholow]

I agree with checking 6th although it's close. I think checking 4th would be a mistake because our hand is actually very strong here. Unlike some "horse race concept" hands, our (almost certain) biggest pair plus liveness of all cards including flush cards, plus the deadness of their flush cards, make your hand have pretty good equity. I'm too lazy to do some guesstimate sims right now, but I think if you plug in some likely scenarios you'll be convinced you are betting and probably HOPING to get raised. This is even more clear because you completed and then caught well, which often clues people in to your checkraise plans, and with their dead/weak-looking hands you can't count on anyone to bet.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I would bet 6th in this specific hand because I think the chance we are beat here is microscopic.