AC nosedive accelerating

[Gonso]

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I post facts from the NJ CCC. What's your agenda for jumping to the defense of casinos?

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People have been predicting the doom of AC since the casinos went up. It's not going anywhere, it's just that the market is changing and people are demanded different things then they were ten or fifteen years ago.

If you'd like to discuss the long-term AC trends regarding the slot end of the business in particular (or the eastern half of the country for that matter), please let me know. I'm responsible for reporting some of the information that comprises the CCC figures you're citing.

AC is just going through a cyclical change, except this period is demonstrating major reinvestment from most properties, you can see the additions being being and major renovations underway. The MGM and Pinnacle are moving forward with super resorts - this is what people want and they've been expressing it. The older casinos are dying (as are many of their loyal customer base lol), but the city isn't.

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Pinnacle is looking to get out already. They've used the excuse that if AC rezones Bader Field for Wynn they won't build

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No, they're not looking to get out of anything and never were. They tossed a threat out looking to discourage allowing building at that location, and several of the existing properties objected also. However, nothing's happening with that locale - especially considering it's place in the current city political scandal. Pinnacle is demolishing the old Sands on Thursday.

As far as MGM, well, it's slated to cost more than 5x what the Borgata did. Hilton has announced a 1 billion plus expansion. Atlantic City s definitely starting to shy away from the day-trippers in favor of vacationers, because now they've been shown to be more profitable.

[cookieb]

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That said, it seems clear that AC is losing its local slot monopoly. The older casinos that rely on slot playing daytrippers are going to take a hit. Borgata and the yet-to-be-built casinos will be well positioned. The others will need to improve to compete.

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I consider this a very good thing, why does OP consider it bad?

[cjk73]

I still haven't heard from OP as to why a company like MGM, who seems to know a thing or two about the gaming industry, would make an announcement that they will be investing billions of dollars if they thought that AC was "dying". Do you have information they do not? I find it highly unlikely that they are making investment decisions without understanding market dynamics and, quite frankly, my gut tells me their info is better then yours.

[pocketpared]

Who said I consider it bad? AC wants to comp as little as possible, was voted worst resort destination in the world 2 years in a row by Conde Nast, sweats action, abuses advantage players, is filthy and sits in the middle of a slum. People only went there because there was nowhere else. That is changing and feet are talking.

[pocketpared]

Down 8 out of last 9 months. It's not cyclical. It's called "competition". When the isolated smoking areas are built or casinos choose to go all non-smoking to save on costs the effects will be even more dramatic.

[davidlong14]

MGM project is going forward for sure...

[Dima2000123]

I think you're going out of your way to spin the numbers the way you want. My job is all about numbers, and I know how easy it is to misinterpret what they mean, either accidentally or on purpose.

What seems to happen with AC is that they suffered a one-time drop in revenues (which would eventually result in 12 out of 12 month-to-month drops), and there does not appear to be any "acceleration" in the trend. You can't make a more meaningful analysis without adjusting the data for seasonality, sort of like the government does with all the statistics it publishes.

[pocketpared]

While you can torture numbers to admit anything you want, these numbers don't lie.
January 2007 drop 2.9% over January 2006
February 2007 drop 4.8% over February 2006
March 2007 increase 1.3% over March 2006
April 2007 drop 9.9% over April 2006
May 2007 drop 5.5% over May 2006
June 2007 drop 1.9% over June 2006
July 2007 drop 2.3% over July 2006
August 2007 drop 5.9% over August 2006
September 2007 drop 10.6% over September 2006
http://www.state.nj.us/casinos/finan...atisitics.html

[Eponymous]

This Philadelphia Inquirer article is the best I've seen so far that not only summarizes all the new investment in AC, but it also describes the changing perceptions of the landscape in AC very well. It compares it to how Vegas had to re-invent itself in the '90s in the face of growing competition in California.

[NickMPK]

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While you can torture numbers to admit anything you want, these numbers don't lie.
January 2007 drop 2.9% over January 2006
February 2007 drop 4.8% over February 2006
March 2007 increase 1.3% over March 2006
April 2007 drop 9.9% over April 2006
May 2007 drop 5.5% over May 2006
June 2007 drop 1.9% over June 2006
July 2007 drop 2.3% over July 2006
August 2007 drop 5.9% over August 2006
September 2007 drop 10.6% over September 2006
http://www.state.nj.us/casinos/finan...atisitics.html

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OK, so if AC is "dying", how long do you think it will be before it is "dead"...i.e. all the casinos are closed?

All you've shown is that revenues this year are below that of last year. If revenues are up several straight years and then down the final year, how does that predict that revenues will continue to fall for all future years (as "dying" would imply)?