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#11
10-23-2007, 05:56 PM
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Re: This happens to me like once a session. Big leak? NL50
Some ranges:
Board: 5s 4d 3s Hand 0: 42.440% { 6d5d } Hand 1: 57.560% { 33+, AsKs } Board: 5s 4d 3s Hand 0: 45.365% { 6d5d } Hand 1: 54.635% { 77+, AsKs } Board: 5s 4d 3s Hand 0: 36.449% { 6d5d } Hand 1: 63.551% { 33+, AsKs, A2s, 76s, A2o, 76o } Board: 5s 4d 3s Hand 0: 43.047% { 6d5d } Hand 1: 56.953% { 33+, AsKs, A2s, J9s, 76s, A2o, J9o, 76o } (Those last 2 are the same except the second one has J9o representing a bluff. Removing the AK from the first 2 ranges makes almost no difference, surprisingly). So I think it is reasonable to say we rarely have less than 40% equity here if those ranges are ok. So with FE and dead money, I can't imagine pushing is -EV. As for maximising EV, erm, haven't a clue. 
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#12
10-23-2007, 06:07 PM
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Re: This happens to me like once a session. Big leak? NL50
I think because we have position is is OK to call for a few reasons. His minraise pretty much eliminanes a flush draw and we can bluff a lot of turn cards. Also I find at these stakes players arnt folding 99+ because of the flush draw. "ZOMG I have an over pair and there is a draw on the board, I must protect it!". We also have to consider we raised a limper and we look very strong. Most villains are not folding 2 pair +.
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#13
10-23-2007, 06:11 PM
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Re: This happens to me like once a session. Big leak? NL50
[ QUOTE ]
I can't imagine pushing is -EV. As for maximising EV, erm, haven't a clue. [/ QUOTE ] I feel like I'm dumping buyins because of decisions like this. What if we look at it from the other side? Obv I'm calling with a set, but how about 77+? Is this an easy call for villian with 88 here?
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#14
10-23-2007, 06:19 PM
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Re: This happens to me like once a session. Big leak? NL50
[ QUOTE ]
Im probably calling here in position and seeing the turn. We have a lot of outs, good implied odds, and not the best FE. [/ QUOTE ] Close call and hard to say without table feel, but in the dark, i agree with EMc
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#15
10-23-2007, 06:30 PM
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Re: This happens to me like once a session. Big leak? NL50
[ QUOTE ]
So I think it is reasonable to say we rarely have less than 40% equity here if those ranges are ok. So with FE and dead money, I can't imagine pushing is -EV. As for maximising EV, erm, haven't a clue. [/ QUOTE ] You make a good point. However, I'm just not sure its +EV to shv over villain's 1) 60% equity range, after he 2) check/raises the flop 3) multi-way and 4) oop Based on this info it just seems like villain has a very strong hand and OP has very little FE.
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