regret folding?

[bleep]

One of the things I found most frustrating in (online) poker is when the hand I just folded would have been the winning hand. Until I thought of this: At poker sites the cards are selected by a random number generator, which will select different cards at different moments. Even if the flop comes 1/1000th second later or earlier, the cards will be different. Folding and betting will almost never take exactly the same amount of time, so had you not folded, the flop would have been different. Am I right?

[AKQJ10]

Technically speaking, you'd need to know whether your site generates the whole deck at the beginning of a hand or generates random cards on the fly as needed. I read somewhere (WLLH 3rd ed.?) that there are sites in each category.

The bigger issue is that, to play hold 'em, you must learn to let go of the hand you just folded. Yes, it's painful to see you would have flopped sixes full of deuces* when you haven't had a hand all night. But in the long run, folding that crap hand is the right thing, and the sooner you come to terms with that mode of thinking, the more successful you'll be.

*On a two-suited board, of course, so you could get action.

[hold_em_henry]

I agree. You have to look at the future hands and not back at the last one. Otherwise, you will start gambling more and lose in the long run because J9o UTG would have hit last time and broken someone's AA. Not, of course, that you are going to be HAPPY about it, but you have to let it go.

That is why in home games I used to get annoyed if someone wanted to see the next card after they mucked and the hand was over. Now I am happy to show them that card because if that card hitting them makes a difference and next time they will make a bad bet, all the better for me.

[phydaux]

You can't let this sort of thing get under your skin. It leads to sucker thinking. There is no way to tell the future, and unlike watching WPT on TV we have incomplete information.

The only thing we can do is make the best poker decition we can at each stage of each hand with the limited information we have.

We know that 22 is a crap hand, with less than a 15% chance to make a winning hand after the River. When you're UTG fold 22 every time. Yes, there is a chance the Flop will come 22x and you'll blow every other hand out of the water, but we have no way of knowing if it will happen this hand. So muck 22 and know that you're only throwing away a winning hand a small percentage of the time.

[SheridanCat]

In many instances you're right. But, consider, what happens if you play live? My point is that it's irrelevant. Fold now, fold in a second, etc. You'll drive yourself mad worrying about it.

I rarely remember what my cards were after I've folded them. That's something I've trained myself to do. Hanging on to them is just a distraction.

Regards,

T

[Songwind]

[ QUOTE ]
Until I thought of this: At poker sites the cards are selected by a random number generator, which will select different cards at different moments. Even if the flop comes 1/1000th second later or earlier, the cards will be different. Folding and betting will almost never take exactly the same amount of time, so had you not folded, the flop would have been different. Am I right?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are wrong. The random number generator is used to "shuffle" the deck, but once the hand is dealt, the deck is fixed. At least, that's how it was explained at the 3 sites at which I have read the technical paper on their randomness.

[SheridanCat]

Not necessarily. Some sites us a continous shuffle of the remaining cards.

Regards,

T

[3CardMonty]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the things I found most frustrating in (online) poker is when the hand I just folded would have been the winning hand. Until I thought of this: At poker sites the cards are selected by a random number generator, which will select different cards at different moments. Even if the flop comes 1/1000th second later or earlier, the cards will be different. Folding and betting will almost never take exactly the same amount of time, so had you not folded, the flop would have been different. Am I right?

[/ QUOTE ]
The fact that you are even asking this question seems to tell me you are looking for someone to say go ahead and play those cards out so you won't feel so bad when they lose. Am I maybe a tad right here?

The good thing is I believe you realize playing those hands will result in a long term loss, lessen you enjoyment of the game, and begin formation of bad habits. It is obvious you don't want this to happen or you would not have ask. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Those wins you see are in fact the BAIT fish are driven to which keeps them going with reckless abandon in persuit of the ever elusive draw out on the turn and river. Stay away from that hook and trust your instincts. You were right when you tossed it in the muck.

Let the fish feed and when it's time for lunch grab a plate full of fish with premium hands and forget the bait. Leave that for the fish.

I see the function of the RNG as maybe an excuse to try what you allready know will not work. Hence in this case it really does not matter. Other than that what Sheridan said I would take to heart.

So therefore my final thought on your question is yes finding a way to make sure you fold those cards without regret is a good thing no matter what you determine as a valid reason to justify that end.

Monty

[Hedge Henderson]

I tend to seek out very passive donks in nano-limit. In those games, I'm just under 25% VPIP and I can safely say that I've regretted staying in far more often than I've regretted folding. Sure, I've seen times when my 10-2 offsuit would have flopped a full house, but I know exactly why I folded it, and I'd do it again without hesitation.

What you "would have gotten" on an individual hand doesn't matter. Remember, poker isn't about winning the most pots, it's about winning the most money.

I have no clue as to whether what you allege about the deck on your poker site is true. It shouldn't matter, though. In poker, you're always playing with limited information and you make your decisions based on the information you do have.

As long as the deck is randomly distributed, why worry about whether it's random distrubution #16,048,249,119,228,647,397 or random distribution #22,211,876,567,556,623,137? In the long run, they're all the same.

[Lawman]

Don't get results orientated. Make a decision and move on. The correctness of the decision cannot be judged against the actual outcome: if someone forced you to play russian roulette, but gave you a choice of identical guns - one loaded with a single bullet and the other with three, which would you choose? Now either course of action may result in you blowing your brains out, but at the time you make the decision, one choice clearly has a better expectation.

Taking the analogy one step further: if your rather stupid friend went first, picked the gun with 3 bullets and survived and you are next - would your choice be any different?

Fortunately, the outcome of poker hands is not normally so drastic, but you will make right decisions and lose hands. Read some of the other forums - even good players can go on huge losing streaks. Each decision you make is intended to put you in the best possible position, but luck is still a factor, so in the short term, the best position may still be losing - but just not by as much as it might have been.

As far as timing and RNG's is concerned, it's irrelevant. If there are X unknown cards in the deck, there is a 1 in X chance of any specific card turning up next whatever the mechanism by which it is chosen