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Old 05-15-2007, 08:56 AM
Mibbbbbbb.... Mibbbbbbb.... is offline
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Default Simple math for calculating implied odds

Example, you have 10 outs to improve, 8BB pot, opponent bets 6BBs.

What would be a simple and quick way to calculate what you need to win on the river to make the call correct. I'm not asking how much should I win on the river, I'm asking for a quick math formula that you can apply while multitabling for example.

Thanks in advance!
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  #2  
Old 05-15-2007, 11:54 AM
KurtSF KurtSF is offline
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Default Re: Simple math for calculating implied odds

Well, let's assume your example is on the turn.

You have 10 out of 46 cards to improve, 10 cards help and 36 don't. You need 3.6 to 1 pot odds to make this call +EV.

You have to call 6BBs into 14BBs. The pot is laying you 2.3 to 1 odds. The call alone is a bad play.

If you would win an additional 1.3 * your call on the river, or 8BBs, EVERY SINGLE TIME you hit your card this would equalize the proposition. (Your call is "1", the pot is "2.3" and you need it to be "3.6", so you need an addiaiont "1.3" times your call of 6 BB in there to even it out. 1.3 * 6 = 8 ) If you win any more than 8BBS every time you hit your hand, the call is now +EV.

The problems with such a simple analysis are the following:

(1) Are all your outs clean? That is, is it possible to improve your hand but still lose, in which case you will have to adjust your number of outs. Say 6 of the 10 outs give you the nuts, but the other 4 outs that improve you just give you a good hand but are not guaranteed to win, but are only about 50% to win. Even though 10 cards improve you, your adjusted outs are only 8, and you need 4.5:1 from the pot to make it a good call.

(2) Can you fold if you miss? If you already have a decent hand and will have to call further bets on the end if you miss you have to figure this cost into your call. Say he has another 12BBs behind and you are 100% sure he will bet it on the end in this situation. The actual price of your turn call is 18BBs. This kind of situation, a mediocre hand that will face more bets and might not win, is ofter referred to as Reverse Implied Odds, or RIO.

(3) How sure are you that you can extract? If you hit your hand and bet 12BBs, multiply that by the odds he will call to get your EV. Say he's 50% likely to call your 12BB bet on the end if you hit, the EV on the river is 6BBs. This is not enough (in the original scenario) to make the call on the turn and draw.

There's more to consider, but this should help you to start thinking about it.
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Old 05-15-2007, 02:59 PM
Mibbbbbbb.... Mibbbbbbb.... is offline
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Default Re: Simple math for calculating implied odds

I think you bit misunderstood what I wanted to get from you. I was looking for a fast way to calculate implied odds, when I'm playing 8 tables or so, but I think I figured it out myself. Should be simple and accurate enough.

46/10 = 4.6
4.6 x 6 = 27.6
27.6 - (8+6+6) = 7.6 or 8BB

Decimal places are bit confusing so I guess I should always round up my pot odds. When I round up I'll always end up with a little profit on the river.

so, 5x6 = 30
30 - 20 = 10BB

Thanks anyways, nice explanation!
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