All regulation is doomed to fail

[Tuff_Fish]

Prohibition made alcohol difficult. expensive, and risky to obtain. Many people did stop drinking until it was repealed.

Prohibition DID NOT stop all consumption, possibly not even a majority of it.

Prohibition DID cause social havoc on an unprecedented scale which is why it was eventually repealed. That and the lost tax revenue.

The loss of online poker is unlikely to cause the sort of upheaval that prohibition did. But it will mobilize some folks, like us, to try to change things to be more favorable to us.

And, there is always the tax angle. The government will like the revenue from poker and poker does not have near the social cost of alcohol. (Despite what the idiots at FoF et al say)

My 2 cents worth.

Tuff

[Cactus Jack]

D$D, most of us tend to think very short-term. "Suddenly disappear"? No. But neither you nor I can possibly forecast what's going to be in a hundred years. My grandfather is 96. When he was born, there wasn't the sound of airplanes filling the air, cars on highways and people on cell phones. He was in shortpants when he saw his first airplane, in his late thirties before he had a telephone. Heck, he was in his late twenties before he had a toilet that didn't require putting on shoes to get to. Could anyone have predicted the OUR age? And changes are going to come even faster, and more often.

The govt is going to have a helluva time regulating the Internet, and they are never going to be able to regulate personal behavior. Child porn is reprehensible, but they haven't been able to stop it on the Net, despite the huge amount of time and resources put into doing so, AND the fact that the majority of us want it stopped. Even we, the massive percentage of people who want child porn ended cannot make it happen.

There is the free market, and then there is our desire for satisfying our needs. The second is unquenchable and the first finds a way to satisfy the need. Always. Trying to come up with regulations mandated by the UIGEA that work will be impossible. If it were possible, it would have already been done. Months ago. The only thing that is stopping the work-arounds are the regs haven't come out. The moment they do, the machinery will start to process it and find ways to screw up the regulators. The Treasury and banks have already said they cannot stop checks. I have made an easy wire transfer and the site has sent me a check. Simple. If it's easier than that, the regulations are screwed.

It's only a matter of time before the DOJ goes after a poker player, and only a matter of time before it goes to court, where all this will come down to whether or not we have the right to do as we wish in the privacy of our own homes. When that happens, the govt will lose and they KNOW IT! That's why it hasn't happened. They aren't stupid. They know how far they can go, although both are quasi-arguable at this point.

You're younger than me, but you're thinking older than me. You are thinking the system in place is all-powerful. It's not. In fact, it's relatively impotent. It comes from the people. If the people say "No More," the system is finished.

There is, at some point in the future--near or far--a revolt coming in this country that may be spread around the world. We will pay taxes, when we believe those taxes are well-spent. Right now, most of us question whether that is happening. We really are beginning to believe they aren't. The Internet is going to be the key to this, too. The point will come when something is going to spark the revolt. The word will go out on the Net. People are going to skip over the politicians and take to the streets, now known as the Internet. They are going to refuse to pay their taxes until something is done. The govt will be helpless. It cannot put us all in jail. There will be no money for it. Nor for cops or prosecutors, judges or jailers.

We have no way of knowing where this is all going. The one thing we do know is that it really is going. The Internet is still only in its first stages. No one knows how much power it has. But, the power of communication is the most powerful on Earth, and the Internet is the way it will spread faster than anything we've ever known.

Here's an example. I have a blog and an Internet radio show. I can say anything I please. The station is not subject to the FCC. The govt cannot shut me down for using the f-word. Suddenly, the govt is irrelevant. That's how it's going to happen.

Our system has been the best man has ever devised, but it was thought up by people who couldn't conceive of where we are now. What will follow will be something perhaps even we can't conceive. True democracy. The power of the individual to promote, foster and demand change. This is what will make the politicians quake in fear.

What's gone on in the last eight years has done more to push this than we might imagine. As they've lost control over us, they've tried even harder to make us bend to their will. It has not worked. It will never work. What we, here, personally, have seen is the beginning of the end of a dying system.

I wish I could be here for all of it. The new world may not be brave, but it will be new.

[JPFisher55]

Again, I hope that Cactus Jack is right. I think either his scenario will occur in the future or the opposite with total government control i.e. communism with the complicity of both political parties.
I think that the changes wills start about 2020 when the social security and medicare programs run into serious financial difficulty and cause the federal government to either drastically reduce these programs or print money because it cannot sell the bonds to finance the deficit caused by these two entitlements.
I agree that the Internet may be a forum for people to organize to force government to change and finally undo the bureaucratic mess that afflicts all government in the US.

[Legislurker]

[ QUOTE ]
D$D, most of us tend to think very short-term. "Suddenly disappear"? No. But neither you nor I can possibly forecast what's going to be in a hundred years. My grandfather is 96. When he was born, there wasn't the sound of airplanes filling the air, cars on highways and people on cell phones. He was in shortpants when he saw his first airplane, in his late thirties before he had a telephone. Heck, he was in his late twenties before he had a toilet that didn't require putting on shoes to get to. Could anyone have predicted the OUR age? And changes are going to come even faster, and more often.

The govt is going to have a helluva time regulating the Internet, and they are never going to be able to regulate personal behavior. Child porn is reprehensible, but they haven't been able to stop it on the Net, despite the huge amount of time and resources put into doing so, AND the fact that the majority of us want it stopped. Even we, the massive percentage of people who want child porn ended cannot make it happen.

There is the free market, and then there is our desire for satisfying our needs. The second is unquenchable and the first finds a way to satisfy the need. Always. Trying to come up with regulations mandated by the UIGEA that work will be impossible. If it were possible, it would have already been done. Months ago. The only thing that is stopping the work-arounds are the regs haven't come out. The moment they do, the machinery will start to process it and find ways to screw up the regulators. The Treasury and banks have already said they cannot stop checks. I have made an easy wire transfer and the site has sent me a check. Simple. If it's easier than that, the regulations are screwed.

It's only a matter of time before the DOJ goes after a poker player, and only a matter of time before it goes to court, where all this will come down to whether or not we have the right to do as we wish in the privacy of our own homes. When that happens, the govt will lose and they KNOW IT! That's why it hasn't happened. They aren't stupid. They know how far they can go, although both are quasi-arguable at this point.

You're younger than me, but you're thinking older than me. You are thinking the system in place is all-powerful. It's not. In fact, it's relatively impotent. It comes from the people. If the people say "No More," the system is finished.

There is, at some point in the future--near or far--a revolt coming in this country that may be spread around the world. We will pay taxes, when we believe those taxes are well-spent. Right now, most of us question whether that is happening. We really are beginning to believe they aren't. The Internet is going to be the key to this, too. The point will come when something is going to spark the revolt. The word will go out on the Net. People are going to skip over the politicians and take to the streets, now known as the Internet. They are going to refuse to pay their taxes until something is done. The govt will be helpless. It cannot put us all in jail. There will be no money for it. Nor for cops or prosecutors, judges or jailers.

We have no way of knowing where this is all going. The one thing we do know is that it really is going. The Internet is still only in its first stages. No one knows how much power it has. But, the power of communication is the most powerful on Earth, and the Internet is the way it will spread faster than anything we've ever known.

Here's an example. I have a blog and an Internet radio show. I can say anything I please. The station is not subject to the FCC. The govt cannot shut me down for using the f-word. Suddenly, the govt is irrelevant. That's how it's going to happen.

Our system has been the best man has ever devised, but it was thought up by people who couldn't conceive of where we are now. What will follow will be something perhaps even we can't conceive. True democracy. The power of the individual to promote, foster and demand change. This is what will make the politicians quake in fear.

What's gone on in the last eight years has done more to push this than we might imagine. As they've lost control over us, they've tried even harder to make us bend to their will. It has not worked. It will never work. What we, here, personally, have seen is the beginning of the end of a dying system.

I wish I could be here for all of it. The new world may not be brave, but it will be new.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am of the opposite opinion. People may want change, but its similar to what I used to discuss with my Chinese friend about why the COmmunist Party won't be overthrown there by the people. Some of the arguments work here, and a couple of others. I guess my core assumptions are this. 1) We are too rich. You talk about your grandfather, how much richer were/are you than he was at your age? In terms of what you can buy and do more than bank account wealth. People are at heart, conservative. If its working, don't rock the boat. Incumbant politicans who are lucky nothign bad happens on their watches are re-eclected ad nauseam. Toss in being loss-averse(not risk averse) as a facet of human nature, the system will stand strong as is. The late 19th and early 20th centuries had strong, principled Anarchist associations, and they didn't succeed in changing the world.
People always went back to what they thought would make them rich, secure, and safe. Stupid sheep, maybe, but we are [censored] stupid animals in a herd. I wouldnn't mind a Revolution, hell I might be up there with the whore on the beast shouting for manna, but I can't see a snapping point coming. Maybe the agitators are just too far away from normal people to get an ear, and they need a messenger. Until the world comes crashing down, you won't see normal Americans in the street demanding change. Their big screen TVs, Canadian pot, and fake titted wives are too nice to leave home.

[ktulu22]

[ QUOTE ]


I am of the opposite opinion. People may want change, but its similar to what I used to discuss with my Chinese friend about why the COmmunist Party won't be overthrown there by the people. Some of the arguments work here, and a couple of others. I guess my core assumptions are this. 1) We are too rich. You talk about your grandfather, how much richer were/are you than he was at your age? In terms of what you can buy and do more than bank account wealth. People are at heart, conservative. If its working, don't rock the boat. Incumbant politicans who are lucky nothign bad happens on their watches are re-eclected ad nauseam. Toss in being loss-averse(not risk averse) as a facet of human nature, the system will stand strong as is. The late 19th and early 20th centuries had strong, principled Anarchist associations, and they didn't succeed in changing the world.
People always went back to what they thought would make them rich, secure, and safe. Stupid sheep, maybe, but we are [censored] stupid animals in a herd. I wouldnn't mind a Revolution, hell I might be up there with the whore on the beast shouting for manna, but I can't see a snapping point coming. Maybe the agitators are just too far away from normal people to get an ear, and they need a messenger. Until the world comes crashing down, you won't see normal Americans in the street demanding change. Their big screen TVs, Canadian pot, and fake titted wives are too nice to leave home.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points. I have had this convo with friends and a true revolution would mean major sacrifice (including the safety and comfort of their families) - sacrifice that not many would be willing to give. It would have to take a major event to spark enough outcry. Though if it ever comes down to it the internet is the ultimate method of communication - something that past revolts never had the luxury of having.

[DeadMoneyDad]

[ QUOTE ]
D$D, most of us tend to think very short-term. "Suddenly disappear"? No. But neither you nor I can possibly forecast what's going to be in a hundred years.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the things I've said to my kids was to make a comparision of time between my father and myself. My father was born around the time of the birth of flight. He flew in WWII and went on to log thousands of hours. I was born around the time of the launch of the first space satillite, the birth of a communications age and have made my living from information and speedier communication. I ask my children to imagine what their world will be like, AND what will their children say about them. This "speach" is usually promopted when they ask something like; "why do you say 'roll up the window in the car'"?

So yes some of me sound like an old guy.
While I put the pipe down a long time ago, you can call me a "pipe dream pragmatist."

Maybe it's all that middle child baggage, but I can out dream anyone you can name, but if I think about it for a while, I temper most of those dreams before they come spilling out of my mouth. No not always, but most of the time. Just today I was told I was cursed because it's usually clear I can see all the angles. Because of that fact and the way I often present ideas, too often people think their is another hidden angle that is totally to my advantage and they are getting screwed, so they back away.

So I'm all for "you're revolution." But "if you want money from minds that hate..........."

There are some old Beatles lyrics in there somewhere....


D$D

[TheEngineer]

Everyone,

There have been a number of different opinions expressed here, and all are valid, as no one knows the future. I do know one thing....under every scenario presented, we're best off by strongly advocating for our rights. I have no doubt we'll all continue to do so.

[Cactus Jack]

Thanks for all the replies. Some very intelligent people on this site.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I wish I could be here for all of it. The new world may not be brave, but it will be new.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am of the opposite opinion. People may want change, but its similar to what I used to discuss with my Chinese friend about why the COmmunist Party won't be overthrown there by the people. Some of the arguments work here, and a couple of others. I guess my core assumptions are this. 1) We are too rich. You talk about your grandfather, how much richer were/are you than he was at your age? In terms of what you can buy and do more than bank account wealth. People are at heart, conservative. If its working, don't rock the boat. Incumbant politicans who are lucky nothign bad happens on their watches are re-eclected ad nauseam. Toss in being loss-averse(not risk averse) as a facet of human nature, the system will stand strong as is. The late 19th and early 20th centuries had strong, principled Anarchist associations, and they didn't succeed in changing the world.
People always went back to what they thought would make them rich, secure, and safe. Stupid sheep, maybe, but we are [censored] stupid animals in a herd. I wouldnn't mind a Revolution, hell I might be up there with the whore on the beast shouting for manna, but I can't see a snapping point coming. Maybe the agitators are just too far away from normal people to get an ear, and they need a messenger. Until the world comes crashing down, you won't see normal Americans in the street demanding change. Their big screen TVs, Canadian pot, and fake titted wives are too nice to leave home.

[/ QUOTE ]

Surprisingly, I'm pretty much as cynical as you are, Leg. I have a very low opinion of people in general, although there are a few I like individually. I despair of the herd mentality and the inability to look at anything in depth. There is so much of the "I got mine, and will do anything to stop you from getting yours." I'm stuck in the Sixties, I guess.

I do believe, however, that there is always on ongoing social revolution, an evolution. Change goes on and there is nothing we can do to stop it. I was taught to say "sir" and "ma'am." Children aren't taught that anymore. That's bad, but it is what it is. I can't stop it and no one else can either.

What we can't predict is how the Internet is going to facilitate change. At some point, we're going to realize that armed conflict is obsolete. The European Union is the first example of how the world is going, and wouldn't have happened without the Internet, btw. Economics is going to change borders. Nationalism may slowly disappear. The Internet gives even lowly peons like me a voice. When those voices coalesce, it may reach a crescendo. The politicians are survivors, if nothing else. Once they see which way the herd is moving, they'll do their very best to get in front of it and "provide leadership."

I really do think that what's been happening with regard to poker is a micro-example of the past and future. Govt trying to regulate behavior, and we're ignoring it. Good for us.

D$D,

While I WANT to see the revolution, I also DO NOT. I don't trust an individual or group to change things for the better. I do believe that the direction society goes is where it will go.

The Gutenburg press changed the world. The literacy level skyrocketed in just a few short years. Forget BC and AD. The true line should be BG and AG. After Gutenberg, change came rapidly and has continued. The Internet is going to be the next, and will be as significant or perhaps even more, as not only will people become more educated, but more illuminated, and more involved, and it will go beyond all borders as we know it.

What we can't know is when, where, and what. I trust evolution, but not revolution. I trust Darwin completely. I trust Marx not at all.

TE,

Absolutely we should continue to voice our desires. This forum here is the example which shows the power of the Net and the future. We are coming together without travel, without time schedules, and without traditional leadership. While they may try to ignore us, they are going to realize they cannot.

Unless they shut down my connection, they cannot stop me or anyone else from playing poker online. When they figure that out, then things will change. Their entire effort is totally and utterly futile. We know it. When will they?

Good stuff, guys.

CJ

[ericicecream]

The casual player will return and only play at the regulated sites.

The regulation will work. Look at prohibition, how often do you buy booze from somewhere that doesn't have a liquor lisence?

[Legislurker]

I don't think armed conflict is obsolete. I wish it was, but as a planet we will have 1-2 more bloodbaths. I hate all this praising the WWII effort. It stopped short, and was followed up like [censored]. The 60s generation and the people who fought in WWI that were in power in the 60s [censored] the world in the ass.
You really think the masses of people who are still living in crushing poverty and dropping 4 kids/woman are going ot sit idly by and keep making the West richer? At some point there will be a tipping point and the less rich world will clash with the more rich. Its history, you think its dead?
Im with you that representative democracy won't be the end of the evolution of government, but I despair of it becoming more liberal. At some point the stupidity and ill-informed nature of the masses has to be more insulated from politics.
Jefferson's fears of democracy by the uneducated ruining the country are coming to pass. They are lazy, selfish, ignorant, and partisan.