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#1
12-19-2006, 03:29 PM
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How many hours to constitute a solid prediction of my play?
I have been playing at a local casino now for 3 months and I have come up with teh following stats
$1-2 90 Hours @ $45 an hour profit $2-5 Mixed ~20 hours @ $100++(I think its $150) an hour profit What would you think my minimum win rate really is if I've been running lucky (I don't think I am) Is there ANY chance that I'm really a losing player and this is all luck? Or is my sample now big enough to make any conclusions. 
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#3
12-19-2006, 05:57 PM
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Re: How many hours to constitute a solid prediction of my play?
[ QUOTE ]
I have been playing at a local casino now for 3 months and I have come up with teh following stats $1-2 90 Hours @ $45 an hour profit $2-5 Mixed ~20 hours @ $100++(I think its $150) an hour profit What would you think my minimum win rate really is if I've been running lucky (I don't think I am) Is there ANY chance that I'm really a losing player and this is all luck? Or is my sample now big enough to make any conclusions. [/ QUOTE ] That's a total of approximately 110 hrs of play over 3 months. That equals an average of about 1.22 hours per day. Probably just luck/short term variance. That's not to say you don't have good poker sense or abilities but its an awfully small sample in the big picture.
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#4
12-19-2006, 06:16 PM
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Re: How many hours to constitute a solid prediction of my play?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I have been playing at a local casino now for 3 months and I have come up with teh following stats $1-2 90 Hours @ $45 an hour profit $2-5 Mixed ~20 hours @ $100++(I think its $150) an hour profit What would you think my minimum win rate really is if I've been running lucky (I don't think I am) Is there ANY chance that I'm really a losing player and this is all luck? Or is my sample now big enough to make any conclusions. [/ QUOTE ] That's a total of approximately 110 hrs of play over 3 months. That equals an average of about 1.22 hours per day. Probably just luck/short term variance. That's not to say you don't have good poker sense or abilities but its an awfully small sample in the big picture. [/ QUOTE ] Well its not 1.22 hours a day, its 4 hours a day when im playing and normally 4 days a week plus, its jsut that my work has me out of town more then half the time.
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#5
12-19-2006, 06:18 PM
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Re: How many hours to constitute a solid prediction of my play?
If your winrate at 1/2 is $45/hour then your sample size is definitely too small.
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#6
12-19-2006, 06:24 PM
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Re: How many hours to constitute a solid prediction of my play?
it takes a year of playing every day IMO to get a real feel of if you're a winning player and if so.. how much.
the how much part might take longer
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#7
12-19-2006, 06:47 PM
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Re: How many hours to constitute a solid prediction of my play?
I had almost 400 hours at 8/16 before I moved up to 20/40. My winrate at 8/16 was $16.72. I still don't believe this is enough. I would say 1000 hours would be minimum.
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#8
12-19-2006, 07:49 PM
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Re: How many hours to constitute a solid prediction of my play?
A math guy told me that at 500 hours of live play you are about 75% certain of your results. At 1000 hours of live play you are at about 90% certain. Since live play is about 30 hands per hour, this equates to roughly 15K hands and 30K hands.
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#9
12-19-2006, 07:50 PM
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Re: How many hours to constitute a solid prediction of my play?
1000 hours minimum to get a real idea of where you MIGHT stand. 2000 hours gives you a closer picture...probably pretty close to accurate, and 10,000 hours(what I consider 5 years of full time play) will tell you if you are the real deal.
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#10
12-19-2006, 08:13 PM
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Re: How many hours to constitute a solid prediction of my play?
That's funny, I think there are bunch of other "math guys" playing Internet Poker with PokerTracker that would say you need 100,000 hands before all the varience starts to disapear.
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