50NL; KhQh on 8hJhAs board gets raised

[Lego05]

Villian is 25.67/9.58/1.93 postflop agg. over 261 hands.

So push or call flop??

Note: If I call flop and he pushes turn I'd be getting 2.577 to 1 which by math is not enough to call with 12 outs. Someone double check that please.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($47.15)
Hero ($53.65)
MP ($47.90)
CO ($25.05)
Button ($29.45)
SB ($49.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $18</font>, SB folds, BB folds, Hero ???

[Cam5182]

Villain did a good job of protecting his hand. I fold the KhQh here.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain did a good job of protecting his hand. I fold the KhQh here.

[/ QUOTE ]


Huh? You fold to his flop raise?

[+EV]

Well, I would say that you have like 12 outs and about 25% pot equity because you are most likely behind to a top pair, two pair or set.

The very strong raise looks like someone with the best hand to me who is afraid of the Flush draw. So with ~25% pot equity and getting only 2:1 it is a fold unless you think that you can extract some more money when the flush hits. I am not sure since it goes against my first basic premise that villain is afraid of the flush draw.

However, the T's are your money outs. I think that calling is possibly ok because almost every time the T hits you will probably stack this opponent.

+EV

[K䲰䮥n]

I dont think it matters that much. I'd push FWIW

[+EV]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Villain did a good job of protecting his hand. I fold the KhQh here.

[/ QUOTE ]


Huh? You fold to his flop raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure that we can push this. If we were open ended than definitely. That makes it a call or fold. I am not sure we can fold it so I call. (weak huh!)

+EV

[+EV]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think it matters that much. I'd push FWIW

[/ QUOTE ]

Edit: Actually I am thinking some more and the analysis changes if we get two cards. Pushing gives us about a 50% equity. If villain has a strong hand and there is a bunch of money in the pot, it looks like a good shove. It also forces villain to pay us off on the flush outs.

+EV

[K䲰䮥n]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont think it matters that much. I'd push FWIW

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think the push is good. We are most likely behind and I don't think that we have great equity in this situation. Maybe 30-35%.

Can someone stove it? I am at work.

+Ev

[/ QUOTE ]

I was comparing push and call. My reasoning was the same as yours: this way we're 100% to get paid when we hit our hand. We also get a nice image for the rest of this session on this table. And we have some FE, we always do.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I would say that you have like 12 outs and about 25% pot equity because you are most likely behind to a top pair, two pair or set.

[/ QUOTE ]


25% equity....what is everyone putting him on??:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

36,630 games 0.005 secs 7,326,000 games/sec

Board: 8h Jh As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.814% 39.64% 00.17% 14521 63.00 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 60.186% 60.01% 00.17% 21983 63.00 { JcJd, JcJs, 8c8d, 8c8s, 8d8s, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcQc, AdQd, AcJc, AdJd, Ac8c, Ad8d, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AcJd, AcJs, AdJc, AdJs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, Ac8d, Ac8s, Ad8c, Ad8s, Ah8c, Ah8d, Ah8s }


If we include Th9h it gets a little better:

37,620 games 0.005 secs 7,524,000 games/sec

Board: 8h Jh As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.575% 40.40% 00.18% 15197 67.50 { KhQh }
Hand 1: 59.425% 59.25% 00.18% 22288 67.50 { JcJd, JcJs, 8c8d, 8c8s, 8d8s, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcQc, AdQd, AcJc, AdJd, Ac8c, Ad8d, Th9h, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AdQc, AhQc, AhQd, AcJd, AcJs, AdJc, AdJs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, Ac8d, Ac8s, Ad8c, Ad8s, Ah8c, Ah8d, Ah8s }

[+EV]

yeah. As soon as I posted my first response I realized it was wrong because of two cards to come. I have already edited it.

The dead money and fold equity I think warrant a push.

+EV