Likelihood of undefeated Pats

[MacGuyV]

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Pats have a 0% chance, because if they get homefield Billy B won't play his players.

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Bellichick doesn't subscibe to the "sit your players" theory. Hasn't he always played his stars in previous years?

In the last game of the 2004 season, Brady played well into the 4th quarter despite the Patriots being locked into the 2 seed.

In the last game of the 2003 season, Brady played well into the 4th quarter despite the Patriots being up 28-0 at halftime against the Bills (they won 31-0). I forget if they had the #1 locked up. A Patriots loss and Chiefs win would have resulted in both teams being 13-3 with a 10-2 conference reacord (no heads-up game). They had a bye locked up.

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That is true. The only time he ever rested starters was vs. his buddy Nick Saban where he also had his backup QB drop-kicking PAT's. The previous week in an equally meaningless game though he has Brady running QB sneaks in the 4th Qtr w/ a big lead vs. the Jets.

[kevkev60614]

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Pats have a 0% chance, because if they get homefield Billy B won't play his players.

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Yeah, this is a pretty ridiculous argument. It's totally different when your team is 15-2 and has home field locked up. But no coach in the history of the NFL would sit players with a chance at being the first to lead his team to an undefeated 16-game-long season.

It looks like there's an awful lot of people out there certain the Pats won't make it but unwilling to put up money until they lose.

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what are you offering

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I'll take 20 to 1 odds that the Pats win every game in the 2007 regular season, up to $200 on my side. If the estimate of 1.97% is accurate, the E(V) for you is
= 1.97% * -$4000 + 98.03% * $200 = $117.26

For those who really believe the chances are 0%, I'm essentially giving you $200 for free. w00t? Of course you'd have to escrow for the remainder of the season or until the Pats lose, whichever comes first (someone math-oriented can do the E(time till payoff)). So it's arguably not free, but whatev.

What I get out of it: something to root for because the Bears are no longer worth the effort.

[LuckyLloyd]

It is extremely unlikely to happen this year (as is shown with the line calculations). But, assuming no radical format changes to the NFL season, a team will eventually go unbeaten for an entire 16 game plus season. An excellent point is made in this thread. Over a long enough time scale, everything happens in sports at least once.

[rafiki]

Moss or Brady goes down and your team becomes so much weaker. The chances of either of those happening has to be like 20%.

[NoChance]

We should really be discussing whether they go undefeated for the next 3 years. They seem to be the greatest team of all time based on what I read here.

[splashpot]

Bear with me and tell me if I'm insane for thinking this way. If the Patriots come close to becoming undefeated, they should focus and put 100% effort into completing an undefeated season even if it slightly hurts their chances of winning the superbowl. Why exactly is winning the SB the #1 priority? Having an undefeated season would bring much more glory and respect to a team than a SB win will. People don't remember the '72 Dolphins because they won the SB, they remember because they were undefeated.

[zer0]

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People don't remember the '72 Dolphins because they won the SB, they remember because they were undefeated.

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well, if you hurt your chances of winning the SB and end up falling short in the playoffs, you won't be remembered alongside the 72 dolphins, even with a 16-0 reg season

[splashpot]

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People don't remember the '72 Dolphins because they won the SB, they remember because they were undefeated.

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well, if you hurt your chances of winning the SB and end up falling short in the playoffs, you won't be remembered alongside the 72 dolphins, even with a 16-0 reg season

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They'll be more remembered than a 14-2 season and SB win.

[Salva135]

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People don't remember the '72 Dolphins because they won the SB, they remember because they were undefeated.

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well, if you hurt your chances of winning the SB and end up falling short in the playoffs, you won't be remembered alongside the 72 dolphins, even with a 16-0 reg season

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They'll be more remembered than a 14-2 season and SB win.

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Has anyone paid attention to the Pats over the past several years? Have they ever said or done anything to imply that they are concerned with anything other than winning the Super Bowl? If they go 15-0 and have home field and everything they could possibly have locked up, I think it's almost guaranteed that Mr. Brady will be out after the 1st quarter of that last game. They will do everything they can to protect their starters for the playoffs.

Sure, deep down they may all want it, but everything about this team over the past several years points to them subjugating meaningless stats to the ultimate goal of winning a championship.

And yes, that's what an undefeated regular season is, meaningless. It's fun for the fans and for ESPN, but not the point of an NFL season. The fact that people even suggest that they would or should knowingly decrease their chances of winning a SB just to go 16-0 is not only antithetical to the Patriots philosophy, but the point of sports altogether, and a byproduct of the overhyped entertainment-like circus professional sports has become.

[TheNoodleMan]

No one ever says going undefeated is their goal but if they get close enough to have a shot they will go for it.