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View Poll Results: 9. FR SB w/ AKo | |||
Raise | 26 | 63.41% | |
Call | 12 | 29.27% | |
Fold | 3 | 7.32% | |
Voters: 41. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1
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Re: A-Rod opts out of contract
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[ QUOTE ] A player who hits 250 homeruns in a season but doesn't win a championship can not go back and argue that his 250 homeruns is more likely to have won his team a championship, unless he has a time machine. [/ QUOTE ] Sure he can. It should be rather obvious that hitting 250 home runs is more likely to win a championship than striking out every time. [/ QUOTE ] The probability of past events is 1.0. You can't say someone is more likely to have won a championship when he didn't win a championship. The probability of him not having won a championship is 100%. Is this point really over people's heads? Many people who discuss "greatest" are not trying to predict the future. They are trying to predict the past. |
#2
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Re: A-Rod opts out of contract
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] A player who hits 250 homeruns in a season but doesn't win a championship can not go back and argue that his 250 homeruns is more likely to have won his team a championship, unless he has a time machine. [/ QUOTE ] Sure he can. It should be rather obvious that hitting 250 home runs is more likely to win a championship than striking out every time. [/ QUOTE ] The probability of past events is 1.0. You can't say someone is more likely to have won a championship when he didn't win a championship. The probability of him not having won a championship is 100%. Is this point really over people's heads? Many people who discuss "greatest" are not trying to predict the future. They are trying to predict the past. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. Trying to PREDICT the past. Not merely describe it. Thus, EV. Using the limited data that we have from the past, predict what would happen in, say, 100 iterations of the past. IOW, what is the EV of each decision/player. Exactly the opposite of all the things you just said. But yes, if all we are doing is describing the past, EV has nothing to do with it. And its also mind-numbingly boring and no one would ever spend time talking about it. HOWEVER, this is usually the refuge that dumb people hide in whenever they realize their arguments dont make sense. "Yeah well WHO'S GOT THE RINGS BAYBEEEEEE" and they pretend like they were having a descriptive, and not predictive, conversation all along. |
#3
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Re: A-Rod opts out of contract
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Exactly. Trying to PREDICT the past. Not merely describe it. Thus, EV. Using the limited data that we have from the past, predict what would happen in, say, 100 iterations of the past. IOW, what is the EV of each decision/player. Exactly the opposite of all the things you just said. [/ QUOTE ] This phrase has no meaning to me, "100 iterations of the past". It is not well-defined. The past happened once. If we iterated it 100 times we would get the same outcome 100 times. Anyway, I think you kind of get my point, you just disagree. My only goal here is to point out that it's a weird thing we do, pretend we can go back in time and re-roll some dice of our choosing, but not others. |
#4
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Re: A-Rod opts out of contract
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Exactly. Trying to PREDICT the past. Not merely describe it. Thus, EV. Using the limited data that we have from the past, predict what would happen in, say, 100 iterations of the past. IOW, what is the EV of each decision/player. Exactly the opposite of all the things you just said. [/ QUOTE ] This phrase has no meaning to me, "100 iterations of the past". It is not well-defined. The past happened once. If we iterated it 100 times we would get the same outcome 100 times. Anyway, I think you kind of get my point, you just disagree. My only goal here is to point out that it's a weird thing we do, pretend we can go back in time and re-roll some dice of our choosing, but not others. [/ QUOTE ] Talking about the past is only useful insofar as it helps us in the future. Simply listing a bunch of facts that happened in the past serves no purpose. Its what we draw from those facts, in order to make predictions about the future, that has value. It isn't weird at all. When we play these hypothetical games, what we are trying to do is come up with theories or rules or inferences or strategies, things that will allow us to better solve problems in the future. Looking at Eckstein winning a WS, what do we learn? Well, that depends. There are many inferences we can draw from that. So we need more information. Taking all of the information we have, we can create a synthesis that has predictive power. Something like "fielding a team full of 5'7" grit-monsters = World Series baybeee" or maybe "there is tons of static and noise but gimme the guys who dont make outs and who hit the ball really hard and we'll win more games." You play poker right? Do you ever review hand histories? Why? Is it to memorize what hand won in hand 146,795 and who held it at the time? Or is it in an attempt to synthesize all the data you have and come up with general strategies and theories to improve your game? |
#5
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Re: A-Rod opts out of contract
Never really thought about him going to Philly before. Howard, Utley, Rollins, A-Rod. God that's a sick IF.
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#6
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Re: A-Rod opts out of contract
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Never really thought about him going to Philly before. Howard, Utley, Rollins, A-Rod. God that's a sick IF. [/ QUOTE ] I'd say that would possibly be the greatest IF to ever play the game. Also Nate is right that the Phils have more cash than they like to admit, but Arod is a luxury and we need pitching. Of course if he wants the HR record more than the cash its a lock ;0) I even almost believe it. |
#7
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Re: A-Rod opts out of contract
Runs are runs. Why does it matter where you get them as long as you do? A-Rod will give them a lot more runs over their 3B situation.
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#8
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Re: A-Rod opts out of contract
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Never really thought about him going to Philly before. Howard, Utley, Rollins, A-Rod. God that's a sick IF. [/ QUOTE ] I'd say that would possibly be the greatest IF to ever play the game. Also Nate is right that the Phils have more cash than they like to admit, but Arod is a luxury and we need pitching. Of course if he wants the HR record more than the cash its a lock ;0) I even almost believe it. [/ QUOTE ] A-Rod, Jeter, Cano, Giambi could be better. |
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