Teasing NFL totals?

David BB · #1 11-02-2007, 07:09 AM

Has anyone done some research regarding the value (or lack thereof) of teasing NFL totals? From what I can tell the most important key numbers are 37 and 41. So the best teases would be teasing totals of 41½-42½ down or totals of 35½-36½ up. Is this at least break even?

The reason I'm asking is that Pinny pays even money on same game 6 point 2-team teasers (compared to -110 normally).

So a teaser like this might have value:

Houston Texans (+9) vs Oakland Raiders for Game (-114)
Houston Texans/Oakland Raiders (O 35.5) for Game (-105)

Risking 100.00 to win 100.00

Webster · #2 11-02-2007, 07:38 AM

There is a reason they are called teasers.

A teaser is -EV. Just like parlays and playing the inside of a crap table.

I have no data to back it up but I think it is pretty well know among us old people that have been sports gambling for the last 40 years that teasers are not a valid way to make money.

BUT - I could be wrong! Don;'t think so though.

domolm · #3 11-02-2007, 07:59 AM

surely you mean with the exception of wong teasers!?

As for OP i've often wondered this myself... if there was any value teasing totals through multiples of 7/3 but i'm far too lazy to analyze it myself and assume wong would of looked at it when he wrote his book etc

mogwai316 · #4 11-02-2007, 09:04 AM

It all comes down to push frequencies. For totals, 37 has a push frequency of ~4.6% and 41 has a push frequency of ~4.1%. Compare to spreads of 3 (~9.8%) and 7 (~5.7%). Even teasing through both the 37 and 41 totals doesn't improve your win % by as much as teasing through only the 3 spread (a "half-Wong").

(push %'s are from Ganchrow's tables at sbr)

mogwai316 · #5 11-02-2007, 09:06 AM

Note that the teaser you posted could still be +EV if there was a correlation between Houston covering and hitting the over. However, if that's the case, there is likely a straight wager or unteased parlay that is more +EV.

Crusher19 · #6 11-02-2007, 09:45 AM

teasing totals can be profitable in NFL if you do your homework, from a general point of view you should try to tease totals when the total is 34 because 6 or 7 points in a game where the total is 34 has so much more value than teasing a total that is 49.

Jazzy3113 · #7 11-02-2007, 10:47 AM

I try to look for the lowest and highest lines of the week and do a small teaser for the opposite result. However, I always avoid games with Baltimore, NE, and Indy. This year it hasnt lost, but obviously it is not an EV bet. More for a fun parlay multiplier.

David BB · #8 11-02-2007, 03:28 PM

Dont get me wrong. I don't think teasing totals will make me a lot of money. But if theyre at least break even or slightly -EV it would allow me to get a slightly better price on my regular wong teasers.

prodonkey · #9 11-02-2007, 03:34 PM

You could look at it as how much of a % of the total can you tease, teasing a game like indy/pats where the total is closing in on 60 seems rather pointless, but teasing a total in the low 30's seems like it would have much more value.

kdog · #10 11-02-2007, 11:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dont get me wrong. I don't think teasing totals will make me a lot of money. But if theyre at least break even or slightly -EV it would allow me to get a slightly better price on my regular wong teasers.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly are you looking to do here David, add a 3rd or 4th play to your teasers? If so I would look first at 4.5-5.5 point dogs. I'd only use totals if they were very low like the 32 posted on the Jax/Tenn game last week.