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View Poll Results: who likes
check/call 1 8.33%
bet/call 5 41.67%
bet/3b 5 41.67%
check/raise 1 8.33%
bet/fold (NITS) 0 0%
Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll

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  #501  
Old 08-25-2007, 03:06 AM
DevinLake DevinLake is offline
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Default Re: STTF SNG->cash thread

[ QUOTE ]
I think a weak ace is betting the river more than he's calling a raise on the turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is what constanza was saying, which is why I asked the question about bluffing this turn.

Because if this is infact true, you should be bluffing that turn a lot because if will be very profitable.

However, I don't find that to actually be the case. Ie, I don't think they fold that often to a raise on the turn.
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  #502  
Old 08-25-2007, 03:11 AM
DevinLake DevinLake is offline
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Default Re: STTF SNG->cash thread

Also, back to the, as I call it, the "double check/raise" scenario we were talking about the other day. IE, I never give credit to a villain that would have had to have been planning to check/raise both the flop and the turn for his hand to be more than a bluff.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($394)</font>
SB ($357.50)
BB ($605.30)
UTG ($547.84)
MP ($416)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($437.80)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $45</font>, SB calls $43, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $30.

Flop: ($139) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, CO checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($139) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB folds, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $100</font>, CO calls $392.80 (All-In), Hero calls $249 (All-In).

River: ($880.80) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 2 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $880.80

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
CO has 8d Ad (high card, ace).
Hero has 8h 7s (straight, ten high).
Outcome: Hero wins $837. CO wins $43.80. </font>

An interesting dynamic occured in this hand. The SB was a huge huge donk (note the cold call preflop). However, when action was on him on the turn he timed out and was sitting out. So, I let me time dwindle down to only have a second or two left to act before I bet. I was hoping he would regain his connection in time to make a bad call.

Worked out in the end.
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  #503  
Old 08-25-2007, 03:21 AM
microbet microbet is offline
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Default Re: STTF SNG->cash thread

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think a weak ace is betting the river more than he's calling a raise on the turn.



[/ QUOTE ]

This is what constanza was saying, which is why I asked the question about bluffing this turn.

Because if this is infact true, you should be bluffing that turn a lot because if will be very profitable.

However, I don't find that to actually be the case. Ie, I don't think they fold that often to a raise on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this hand there aren't a ton of strong hands for them to have, but maybe in general in this spot they have a hand stronger than TPnK often and that's why it seems like they aren't folding.

If you know 100% he has a weak Ace here I don't think you are getting him to call a raise on the turn and then lead out the river and then call a river raise. At best he's calling the raise, checking the river and calling a bet.

I think that same player is leading the river and calling a raise pretty often.

So, yeah, he might be calling turn and not leading the river even if you don't raise the turn, so you might miss out on one bet there if he has a weak ace - or you might not. He might have folded when he would have either lead the river or at least called a value bet on the river.

If he has less than a weak Ace you're almost certainly getting less value by raising the turn.

If he has more than a weak Ace, he's probably leading river and calling your raise.

Reads would certainly come into play. There are lots of players who never fold top pair and there are lots of players who measure your flat call on the turn as a sign that you can be bluffed on the river.
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  #504  
Old 08-25-2007, 03:30 AM
microbet microbet is offline
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Default Re: STTF SNG->cash thread

This is just a hand I observed.

Look at Donleon7's play and what he's doing and representing. See how scary the board is on the river. This seems like a good example where he has to have a fairly strong hand to bet or have a bluff. A big hand doesn't seem to make much sense.

Squirrel probably didn't have to think too hard to call with AK, but what's the best bluffing hand here? Ac5x? If you find yourself on the river there with 66 do you call? 33?

Stage #743616250: Holdem No Limit $4 - 2007-08-25 01:01:07 (ET)
Table: BENSON BLVD (Real Money) Seat #4 is the dealer
Seat 4 - BLUFN101 ($406.15 in chips)
Seat 5 - VOTED4KODOS ($460 in chips)
Seat 6 - DBLDEUCE1 ($132 in chips)
Seat 1 - LONGIE13 ($349.15 in chips)
Seat 2 - SQUIRREL98 ($209.10 in chips)
Seat 3 - DONLEON7 ($365.55 in chips)
VOTED4KODOS - Posts small blind $2
DBLDEUCE1 - Posts big blind $4
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to VOTED4KODOS [3h 2d]
LONGIE13 - Folds
SQUIRREL98 - Calls $4
DONLEON7 - Raises $12 to $12
BLUFN101 - Folds
VOTED4KODOS - Folds
DBLDEUCE1 - Calls $8
SQUIRREL98 - Calls $8
*** FLOP *** [2c 5c Jc]
DBLDEUCE1 - Checks
SQUIRREL98 - Checks
DONLEON7 - Checks
*** TURN *** [2c 5c Jc] [Kd]
DBLDEUCE1 - Checks
SQUIRREL98 - Bets $8
DONLEON7 - Raises $20 to $20
DBLDEUCE1 - Folds
SQUIRREL98 - Calls $12
*** RIVER *** [2c 5c Jc Kd] [Jd]
SQUIRREL98 - Checks
DONLEON7 - Bets $32
SQUIRREL98 - Calls $32
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DONLEON7 - Shows [Qh 9c] (One pair, jacks)
SQUIRREL98 - Shows [Ad Ks] (Two Pair, kings and jacks)
SQUIRREL98 Collects $138.50 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($142) | Rake ($3) | Jackpot Rake ($0.50)
Board [2c 5c Jc Kd Jd]
Seat 1: LONGIE13 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: SQUIRREL98 won Total ($138.50) HI$138.50) with Two Pair, kings and jacks [Ad Ks - P:Ks,B:Kd,B:Jd,B:Jc,P:Ad]
Seat 3: DONLEON7 HI:lost with One pair, jacks [Qh 9c - B:Jd,B:Jc,B:Kd,P:Qh,P:9c]
Seat 4: BLUFN101 (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 5: VOTED4KODOS (small blind) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 6: DBLDEUCE1 (big blind) Folded on the TURN
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  #505  
Old 08-25-2007, 03:40 AM
DevinLake DevinLake is offline
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Default Re: STTF SNG->cash thread

I don't really see what the difference between:

(just villain action).

bet turn, bet river, call raise, and;

bet turn, call raise, check river, call bet is?

And I don't see why if he'll call a river raise, why he won't call a turn raise and river bet? They rep the same hands, his hand will have equal value against your range and both lines are close in cost.

However, when you don't raise the turn, he often doesn't bet a lot of his range on the river. Instead, he often c/c. Your call of his turn bet shows a lot of strength when you were the preflop raiser. It's hard for him to put you on much less than a big A any way you play it. And if he chooses to c/c, you have definitely lost value.

There probably isn't much of a difference between lines here really. But, IMO you are over estimating the frequency he bluffs/thin vb's that river and maybe under estimating how often they call the turn raise.

But, I've been wrong before...
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  #506  
Old 08-25-2007, 03:53 AM
DevinLake DevinLake is offline
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Default Re: STTF SNG->cash thread

Here are my reads based on one hand...

squirell is like a 30/5/1 type.

donleon is probably just a dumbass, like 40/20 type or something. But, he could be a solid player isolating against what he thinks is a fish.

Obviously no one is representing anything on the flop.

On the turn, squirell is pretty much repping a K or a flopped flush. Pretty much the same for don, except heavily weighted toward the flopped flush cause he just calls with a nake K a lot on this board. He very rarely has a J cause he wouldn't check behind the flop with a J being the last to act.

When checked to on the river, don's bet looks like a v-bet. But, really the only hand he can reasonable expect to bet is a flopped flush or a J. That's hard to sell to someone when the flop checked through. So, I'd look him up with a fairly wide range getting 3-1. Maybe as light as a 5? I'd c/r bluff here some frequency too.

However, if I was real weak in this hand, I wouldn't be in squirell's shoes as I would have c/f the turn.
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  #507  
Old 08-25-2007, 05:43 AM
futuredoc85 futuredoc85 is offline
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Default Re: STTF SNG->cash thread

yeah they both suck and if don wants to bluff popping it from $8 to $20 then betting 1/2 pot on the river isnt gonna cut it.
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  #508  
Old 08-25-2007, 03:07 PM
cakewalk cakewalk is offline
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Default Re: STTF SNG->cash thread

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($100)
Button ($87.50)
Hero ($110.10)
BB ($244.95)
UTG ($370.65)
MP ($103.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, BB calls $8, UTG calls $7.

Flop: ($27) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $19</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $19.

Turn: ($65) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ?</font>
thoughts ? just sat down no reads
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  #509  
Old 08-25-2007, 03:24 PM
ALReturnsLOL ALReturnsLOL is offline
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Default Re: STTF SNG->cash thread

checks, I alot of his range just got there including AJ and xDxD, I would see how he reacts and possibly call a small bet
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  #510  
Old 08-25-2007, 03:36 PM
DevinLake DevinLake is offline
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Default Re: STTF SNG->cash thread

I'd bet for value. The Ad coming takes away a lot of the flush draw hands he could have. The texture of the flop also eliminates some of the SCs from his range.

There are other draws that have not hit as well as just weaker pairs in his range.

I'd prefer to bet smallish here to get to a cheaper river. My plan would be then to check the river, and most likely fold to a bet.
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