Roulette Wheel Bias and Craps

[Terry]

Excellent questions.

Assuming we're talking about Pass and Come bets with an EV of -1.414%, we're looking at only needing to “do the deed” on the order of one shot out of a hundred. That doesn't sound too difficult, but keep in mind that it will take somewhere between two and three hours to make that 100 rolls, and that is time spent actually being the shooter; other shooters are dead time.

The argument will arise that taking multiple odds decreases the 1.414% figure. It does, but the new smaller percentage is a percentage of a larger amount of money, and the EV of the total bet (bet plus odds) always remains -1.414% of the original bet. Determining whether or not this has any actual effect on our outcome would require more thought than I've put into this, so I leave this bit with an I don't know.

Non-shooter rolls have a horrific effect on our hourly rate. If we are one of two shooters, our rate is ½, if we are one of twelve, our rate is 1/12 before accounting for bets we place on their rolls. I'd say it's nearly mandatory to play alone to achieve any sort of meaningful hourly rate, thus increasing our chance of being backed off.

BR requirement and RoR can, I think, only be determined through very long trials. Our actual edge is a function of the shooter's skill, complicated by differing table conditions and the constantly changing condition of the edges and corners of the dice. I think a number determined by home practice on a single table with a single pair of dice would likely not apply “in the wild.”

Casinos change the dice at the beginning of every shift, and sometimes change them a time or two during the shift. Brand new dice are very sharp and likely to “catch” in the felt, causing tumbling action we don't want. After a few hours of use, the edges get worn down substantially, making it more likely we will be able to roll the dice on the axis we set, rather than tumbling randomly.

I suspect that those who go to the trouble to set up a practice table at home don't change to new (not just different, new) dice every few hours. I also doubt very much that they change their layouts to practice on different types and ages of felt, nor do they change the padding underneath to practice with different degrees of bounce.

It seems the difficulty of making the shot land would be somewhat comparable to shooting a bullseye on a dart board, and certainly, some people are skilled at doing that. Our situation is complicated by quite a few factors.

We're not throwing one aerodynamically stable dart, but two objects that will tend to be quite unstable in flight. (Note that the idea of temporarily sticking the dice together with a foreign substance, saliva, oil from rubbing one's nose, etc, is one of the things the boxman is looking for when the dice are put in front of him at the end of each roll.)

The sharpness of our “darts” will be constantly changing, as will the density of the “dart board”, so we will have to constantly adjusting to differing conditions and equipment. The softness and angle of the rubber strip we must hit will cause different actions on different tables.

Our task is not to make our “dart” stick in the board, but to bounce out ... and to bounce out in a particular orientation ... and to a certain distance ... and we will be playing on a different board every day ... and sometimes there will be a cross-wind.

So it seems that even given the physical skill to somewhat consistently land the shot in the desired position, there are many other factors that affect the outcome of a successful shot.

And even if we do manage to overcome all those difficulties, we are still left with the possibility that our perfect shot meets with the dreaded “No roll.” If something or someone becomes perceived as a threat, the casinos will take countermeasures.

Anyone who is consistently landing shots within a specific two square inch section in the corner of the table and having them bounce back only a short distance will be closely monitored, though not necessarily by way of a bunch of suits gathering behind the table.

“My guess is that it's just barely feasible under certain circumstances, but that it's not practicable in the real world.” Excellent answer. Wish I'd said that. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[stickman]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I guess you're right. Just because I spent over 30 years operating craps games and have never once, in any game, in any joint, seen a player be permitted to repeatedly shoot into the edge or corner of the table, or shoot in any other way that inhibits the rolling action of the dice just doesn't stack up against your knowledge. I mean, after all, you've read a book about it.

Pass the dice. New shooter coming out.

[/ QUOTE ]
NICE!