Top two pair spot

[chillrob]

I used to think I had a good handle on O8, but lately have been struggling. Sometimes I think I am betting the best hand only to find out I was ahead the whole way, and sometimes I refrain from betting and end up winning a tiny pot or letting someone hit a weak draw for free.

Anyway, here is the beginning of the hand, from a Full Tilt 2/4 table. (Btw, if anyone knows an easy way to access FT hand histories for putting into a converter, let me know).

I have As Qs Td 5h in the big blind. I believe 5 see the flop, including the SB, no raise.

Flop: Qd Tc 7h

So, someone could have a set, but I figure I probably have the best hand and better to try to find out. SB checks, I bet. 2 callers behind, SB folds. Does anyone think I should have checked?

Turn: 6d

I don't particularly like this card; not too worried someone has a 98, but it sets up a diamond draw and a low draw (and I doubt my low draw is best). There are going to be few river cards I will be happy to see other than another T or Q. However, if I had the best hand on the flop, I most likely still have the best hand. What should my line be here?

[facialabuse]

bet turn, river 2nd queen of diamonds

seriously tho, against only 2 ppl on turn easy bet

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: Qd Tc 7h

So, someone could have a set, but I figure I probably have the best hand and better to try to find out. SB checks, I bet. 2 callers behind, SB folds. Does anyone think I should have checked?

[/ QUOTE ]Chillrob - Bet seems right.[ QUOTE ]
Turn: 6d

I don't particularly like this card; not too worried someone has a 98, but it sets up a diamond draw and a low draw (and I doubt my low draw is best). There are going to be few river cards I will be happy to see other than another T or Q. However, if I had the best hand on the flop, I most likely still have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree with your thinking. [ QUOTE ]
What should my line be here?

[/ QUOTE ]You can't bet to protect your hand. (That won't work). Suddenly, as if from nowhere, almost the entire deck has turned against you! The only cards that are your friends on the river are your four original outs. Five cards (2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) do minimal damage, only enabling low, but all the rest, every single other card in the deck, spell potential disaster for your high!

This is the amazing thing about Omaha in general, and Omaha-8 in particular. You often have the best hand at the turn and then one more card and you don't!

But you lost someone. You indicated five or you saw the flop, but only one folded and yet there were only three of you on the river. I think it matters how many opponents you have at this point. (The more opponents, the greater the possibility one of them has two cards that will beat you for high on the river).

But what to do? If by betting the turn, you can knock out someone who has favorable odds to draw, then that seems worthwhile. In other words, if you bet, your opponents are more likely to make a mistake than if you check. Just be aware that you'll often, perhaps usually, get outdrawn in this situation and take it in stride. It's easier to handle if you think of it as part of the game.

Buzz

[chillrob]

Maybe my original post wasn't clear - two folded to my flop bet; I just mentioned that the SB was one of the folders to make it clear that I was first to act.

The turn spot is even worse than you say though - the two aces you mention could make broadway for someone else. (They would also give me a bigger two pair, but wouldn't help me unless I was currently splitting with someone else who had a Q and T but no A - quite unlikely).

I agree that a deuce would be my favorite river other than a Q or T - I could even win the low that way, although not too likely.

Anyway, my thoughts were almost the same as yours - I am going to hate almost any river. If both players call my bet, do I likely even have 1/3 equity? If not, should I even bet? Seems unlikely that anyone with a decent draw will drop. In fact, looking back on the flop, I am even going to hate almost any turn! So, should I have even been betting to begin with?

Anyway, in actuality, I bet and again got two calls.

River: Js

Plan?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe my original post wasn't clear

[/ QUOTE ]Chillrob - Sorry. I was wondering since one of three hands has a better chance of improving to beat you on the river than one of two hands. But now that I look at it again, your post is very clear.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, in actuality, I bet and again got two calls.

River: Js

Plan?

[/ QUOTE ]Check/call would be my plan.

My guess is if you check, one of the players behind you will bet and the other one will fold. And if that happens, then I think you should call. Someone needs AKXY, K9XY or 98XY for a straight. And if nobody has one of those hands, you probably have a winner.

I don't believe anyone with any straight or any trips will fold to a bet from you on the river, and you might get raised. In other words, I think it's virtually impossible for you to promote your hand by betting and knocking out a better hand on the final betting round. Neither do I think you have a good chance of picking up a bet from someone who would call with a worse hand than yours on the river.

Thus if you bet yourself, no good will probably come of it.

Therefore, don't bet.

However, if you check, someone behind you may bet with nothing, hoping to steal the pot. Maybe not, but I think "induce-a-bet-with-a-check" is your best chance to collect a bet if you do happen to have a winner.

Assuming someone does bet behind you after you check, the bettor probably has a straight. But you're getting 8 to 1 pot odds to call the bet. The odds that one of your opponents has a straight (or trips) are certainly less than 8 to 1. (With no knowledge of what hands your opponents are playing, roughly half the time at least one of two random hands will have the necessary two cards to make a straight or a set). The question is how often will one or the other of these particular two opponents bet when neither of them has a straight or a set.

I have no idea.

If you check, somebody with trips may not bet. And somebody with the low straight may not bet either.

But anyone who does bet this river is not guaranteed of having a better hand than you.

Therefore I think you should call a bet from an opponent who bets behind you after you check.
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What if MP bets LP raises? Then it makes sense to fold to the double bet.
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What if MP checks and LP bets? Then I think you should bite the bullet and call, despite the threat of a possible check/raise by MP.
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What if MP bets and LP calls? That's a tough one. In that case, I guess what to do depends on your knowledge of MP and LP.

Buzz

[chillrob]

Well, I decided to check on the river - it was then bet and raised, and I folded.

One player had AK33, the other had AKJ6. I didn't remember to write down if anyone had diamonds or not.

So I guess I made the standard plays here? Still can't help thinking that maybe I was behind in equity the whole way.

[Buzz]

Chillrob - I think you played perfectly.

If we give LP A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],

if we give MP A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],

and you have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],

then I think maybe everybody played correctly. (I ran simulations with these hands before the flop, after the flop, and after the turn. If I had switched the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], then LP would have more pre-flop equity.

I have these three hands alone <ul type="square">LP 25.08%
MP 40.03%, and
Hero 34.89% before the flop.

LP 28.53%
MP 40.82%, and
Hero 30.65% after the flop

LP 21.72%
MP 40.32%, and
Hero 34.96% after the turn.[/list]Because of the dead money in the pot from the first betting round, I think after the flop everybody needs at least 25% equity,
and after the turn everybody needs at least 20% equity.

And everybody has that.

Interesting that the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hand has a slight equity edge all the way.

I probably should have included two blank hands, but no matter at this point. Well... pretty easy to do. O.K.

<ul type="square">Blank 1 15.40%
Blank 2 15.69%
LP 15.56%
MP 30.36%, and
Hero 22.99% before the flop.[/list]maybe the hand that I assigned to LP was a bit light before the flop for this particular set of three hands that saw the flop. Hard to make that judgment, change the cards a bit and maybe it wouldn't work out that way.

At any rate, looks like you played just fine except for not having much luck with the river. I like your fold to the bet and raise on the river.

Buzz

[chillrob]

Thanks for the analysis. Strange that it looks like my equity went up after the turn card.

I know there is no way I could have known the other hands exactly, but if I had, should I have even been betting the flop? I probably had more than 20% equity on the flop including the two who folded, but after only 2 others called, I lost money on that bet. Checking and calling seems wrong as well though.

It is bizarre to me that the AK33 had an equity edge on the flop, as I actually thought he made a bad call. Just an inside straight draw, backdoor flush draw, and backdoor second nut low draw? I don't see how that adds up to 41% equity...

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I know there is no way I could have known the other hands exactly, but if I had, should I have even been betting the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]Chillrob - Pretty hard to know what they have. I think you should bet after the flop, partly because you don't know and might win by betting.

[ QUOTE ]
I probably had more than 20% equity on the flop including the two who folded, but after only 2 others called, I lost money on that bet.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. But there was no way you could know.
[ QUOTE ]
Checking and calling seems wrong as well though.

[/ QUOTE ]I believe betting is your best option. I believe you played correctly.
[ QUOTE ]
It is bizarre to me that the AK33 had an equity edge on the flop, as I actually thought he made a bad call. Just an inside straight draw, backdoor flush draw, and backdoor second nut low draw? I don't see how that adds up to 41% equity..

[/ QUOTE ]I understand. You can see the equity advantage after the turn, but immediately after the flop it doesn't seem right. I guess if you look at all the cards and figure the two-card possibilities for the turn and river, with the cards as they lie, AK33 has the edge. Surprised me too. (And so I double checked). Wouldn't be impossible for me to make a mistake, even double checking, but at this point I don't think I did.

Buzz

[2handed]

Buzz is right on. Looks pretty standard. nh