Trusting a Read vs. Poker Logic - 10/20 NL

[whorasaurus]

results?

[jungy121]

wouldn't it be crazy if villian knows that when you overcalled the flop, the only hand that would make sense is 999 or 222. and if he has 999 or KKK then he knows you don't have 999 so 222 is the only hand you have.

so i guess what i'm saying is that he knows he won't get value out of you if he 2/3rds or pots it on the turn or river, he knows you'll bet the river if checked to twice and he can CRAI on the river.

this seems really farfetched but this would be some crazy play. or am i just thinking on the 12th level?..

p.s. i'm high.

[cts]

not shoving is crazy imo

[IShearSheep]

so i guess what i'm saying is that he knows he won't get value out of you if he 2/3rds or pots it on the turn or river, he knows you'll bet the river if checked to twice and he can CRAI on the river.

this seems really farfetched but this would be some crazy play. or am i just thinking on the 12th level?..
p.s. i'm high.

Dude, he won't get value out of hero if he bets turn or river? The guy just called an all-in and a cold call. The pot is approx. 12k and he has 3.5k left and he KNOWS he will bet river if checked to on turn.
Wow, I will pay you double for whatever you smoked to get that high and pay for shipping and handling charges.

[Drag007]

i agree, you gotta bet this river.
villain likely does not have KK (or AA for that matter) b/c he likely would have 4-bet preflop to shut yall out of the pot, especially when everyone's sitting deep.
and i dont think he'd check 99 on the river after you checked behind on the turn.
I put him squarely on AK here, and I think you need to bet, esp. since your shove is only like half the pot (if i did the math right), so he could def. make a crying call, although if he's smart he'd dump AK here

[RiverFenix]

I thought this hand was really interesting and wanted to read a lot of the replies before I posted. Also the pot is around 2k on the flop, no? I thought that was really important if SB overbet shoved for 2.9k or 2k.

Anyway, I think we're solidly ahead of Chub here. I'm more worried about the SB. Would be really awful for him to flip over JJ and scoop a three way pot when you can get some value out of a currently dry side pot.

Way I see it is SB pots a dry flop ai (maybe a huge overbet too?). Probably pretty unlikely he holds 99 or KK himself here. I think he holds AA/AK and the less likely QQ/JJ. Logic on QQ/JJ is thinks his overbet shove and the unlikelyhood of one villain holding AA/KK gets folds on the flop from his massive strength. Anyway, point is I think you're ahead of sb but not discounting the possibility of QQ/JJ.

Anyway, you know chubs is strong here but him checking a higher set 2x is really unlikely. If he is strong enough to call the flop shove he has to be able to at least call 50-100bb on the river from you. I think thats enough incentive to try and get some money in so you're not just showing down in one pot three ways.

[Irish Mafia]

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not shoving is crazy imo

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He can't have KK (based on PF) - and he knows you don't have KKK either. 999 would NOT check twice. He has AK most likely.

[Syntec87]

Does villain get pot stuck? Cause folding with 1.5 buyins in the middle even w/o a side pot, is not something lots of villains do. Honestly, based on how he is playing I think he is just hoping pot stays small w/ AA AK, doesnt really say he can lay it down for a bet...he might convince himself to call

[soah]

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not shoving is crazy imo

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He can't have KK (based on PF) - and he knows you don't have KKK either. 999 would NOT check twice. He has AK most likely.

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you have way too much confidence in what a "decent" guy in a live game can and can't do

if Jennifer Tilly can check down jacks full for fear of getting super-slowplayed by pocket kings turned set of kings rivered quad kings, then I'm sure some random guy out there can check down second set fearing the guy that overcalled a hugeass bet behind him has the nuts