TPTK but there's a good chance he has an overpair

[ckj]

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $26.20
UTG+1: $6.30
MP1: $8.75
MP2: $25.55
CO: $19.95
Button: $11.45
SB: $14.05
Hero: $11.20

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#">MP1 raises</font>, 4 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.4SB, 3 players)
<font color="#">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#">MP1 raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
(6.2BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
(9.2BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG folds.

Results:
Final pot: 11.2BB

Very tight player is 21/5/1.2 over 80 hands. No idea what UTG had but i was positive I had him beat. He'd raise if he had 2 pair or better for sure.

Based on the type of player and the flop action I was pretty sure I was beat to an overpair but called anyway.

I guess I was looking for my 5 outer but really didn't know if a fold made sense at all.

What do you guys think?

[runnawaybus]

I like a Check Raise on the flop, other wise fine.

[FatedEquity]

If the raiser is tight, why are you calling the preflop raise with a potentially dominated hand?

[Shillx]

Fold PF. If a PF call were appropriate then c/r the flop.

[jrz1972]

You fold preflop? Why?

[nach0king]

Why do we C/R the flop? We cannot make a free card play when we're UTG. Do we C/R the flop then c/f unimproved, or...?

[jrz1972]

If we check, UTG will probably check to the raiser, who will bet this flop virtually 100% of the time. Then we can c/r and force UTG to call two bets cold if he wants to stay in the pot. Assuming MP1 just calls our c/r, we are leading the turn.

This isn't about making a free card play because we figure we're probably ahead on this flop. It's about protecting our hand. It's going to be hard for UTG to profitably call two bets on the flop, and MP1 will frequently fold overcards to a turn bet (correctly when he has AK, perhaps incorrectly when he has KQ).

[fretelöo]

Good point. Plus, in the unlikely case that UTG does bet and the pfr raises, we have found out that we're probably not good at little cost.

jrz,

on the turn MP1 will get ~6:1 on the turn. That in itself is close. Given that we messaged strenght so far in this hand, don't yo think that he'd be correct to fold KQ even if he almost gets his odds?

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
You fold preflop? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero's only getting 5:1, OOP, vs. a nit. A call with a PP would be appropriate since he'll have an overpair often enough to pay off your set, but A9s relies a lot on pair value which it doesn't have that much of.

Against unknowns or typical players this is a call imo.

[Sigurd]

I think this is a pretty standard preflop fold.

MP1 has a PFR of 5% after 80 hands. I imagine that his range is something like TT+, AJ+,KQ. Against that range, we are in bad shape.


I made a Pokerstove simulation against someone raising 7% (not very different from 5%).

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 64.2592 % 62.69% 01.57% { TT+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 35.7408 % 34.17% 01.57% { A9s }