Bubble situation with JJ

[maletaja]

Ok mayby it was mistake.But im curious which range do you push?TT,99,AQ as well?

[kimos123]

people are also scared like you on the bubble so pushing with JJ isnt bad, and mathimaticly you are only an underdog to a higher pair. and beside if the players behinde you have a shortstack you may not be out of the tournement yet.

[Tackleberry]

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Ok mayby it was mistake.But im curious which range do you push?TT,99,AQ as well?

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Your M (the ratio between your stack and the sum of BB and SB) is slightly above 3, so my pushing range here would be roughly like:

22+,A7s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,A9o+,KJo+

This may sound a bit loose (and maybe it even is), but you have to remember that most of your opponents tighten up as well on the bubble (which they shouldn´t!!). With JJ I certainly had thrown the mouse off my desk while hitting the push-button. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Honestly, think about what Barry said. I´m far away from being a good MTT-player, but your style just costs you a LOT of money. When you are afraid of loosing 2.5 buy-ins while trying to win maybe 20 buy-ins, it may be a matter of fact that you are playing outside your bankroll and left your "comfort zone". Imagine you played for a buy-in of 1$, the 1st gets 1000$ and you have JJ in MP. If you lose this hand, you will get nothing, if you fold it, you may get 2$, if you win it, you have a real (!!) chance to win 1000$, at least maybe something around 200$. Would you hesitate to push? Think about this in terms of the ratio of your bankroll and the buy-ins you´re playing.

[Tackleberry]

Back to the fact - JJ: here is the math. I assume that you have five players behind you, each of them should have a calling range of about 4% (99+,AQs+,AKo). This means, that in 80% you´ll get the blinds and in 20% you are called for a coinflip:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.598% 47.45% 01.14% 248639100 5996460.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 51.402% 50.26% 01.14% 263333004 5996460.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

This adds up to:

EV = (0.8 * 2250) + (0.2 * ((0.5 * -7000) + (0.5 * 9250))) = 2025

Is that sufficient to convince you?

And to make it perfect, here is the same calculation with 22 (which is a 30/70 underdog to the given calling-range):

EV = (0.8 * 2250) + (0.2 * ((0.7 * -7000) + (0.3 * 9250))) = 1375

[Stumpy]

Tackleberry,

The question is if cEV and $EV have diverged considerably here.

Everyone but OP knows to push this, but to be specific about the reason why...

You can roughly calculate the value of 1 extra chip after the bubble by dividing the remaining prize pool by the total chips.

We'll have to guess at some numbers, but if 80 pay, 800 entries, 1500 starting chips...
Prize pool = $60,000 - 80*(180) = $45,600
$ / chip = $54,000 / (800*1500) = $0.038.

I'm pretty sure OP left out antes, which only make things better.

From Tackleberry's numbers:

2025 +cEV = +$77 $EV for just the extra chips.

But you go broke 10% of the time (50% of 20% when called), which costs you $180.

0.1*(-$180) + 0.9*($77) = +$51.25.

So if you're willing to win nothing 10% of the time, you'll win an additional $51.25 on average.

[sdill]

Push! Play for the win.

[oe39]

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This is an auto push and it's not close.

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[MJBuddy]

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Ok mayby it was mistake.But im curious which range do you push?TT,99,AQ as well?

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Your M (the ratio between your stack and the sum of BB and SB) is slightly above 3, so my pushing range here would be roughly like:

22+,A7s+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,A9o+,KJo+

This may sound a bit loose (and maybe it even is), but you have to remember that most of your opponents tighten up as well on the bubble (which they shouldn´t!!). With JJ I certainly had thrown the mouse off my desk while hitting the push-button. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


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Way way way too tight of a range there imo.

[Dave D]

I havent read responses but...wtf we arent even given any action, so I guess OP wants a general discussion.

Let me put it this way, if you're in the BB and it goes raise, raise raise all in, you're calling with JJ. If it goes raise, AI, you're calling with JJ. You're getting your money in, no matter what happens basically. You only have 5 BBs, we're playing for first, you can't pass this up.

[w33ktight]

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I folded..gave away 1500-750 blinds and secured money.
Im not sure is pos Ev to push?

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lol