Scoring Patterns

[Hey_Porter]

I totally agree, the problem is in reality it's not as clear cut as that (obviously re: the calculations). For example, my first screw up on my quad hole is an example of risk-reward where 80% of the time reward wins out. Plus, most of the time we're not dealing with whether I can put a ball through a 5 foot hole in the trees. That's an easy decision where it's stupid to take that risk for the reward. Usually we're talking about a shot that is closer to 65%, or a shot that I SHOULD be able to make every time, even if there's a safe option.

[black knight]

Well, I think that it's a lot more simple than people think. One of the reasons, IMHO, people think it's hard to do the calculations is that they GROSSLY overestimate their own skill. People will often think that they can hit a green, for example, from 130 80% of the time, when it's really maybe 40%. Also, most people don't understand dispersal patterns of shots. The TOP PROS have a dispersal pattern on 9i through 3i of about 4% (with their average between 5-7%). That's side-to-side dispersal, back-to-front is about 2% accross the board. With wedges, it's the opposite: side-to-side is about 2% and back-to-front is 5-7 (the best being around 4%).

What's this mean? It means that for every 100yds, a top pro with 4% dispersal will average +/- 4 yards from their intended target. So, from 150, a top pro should expect to be 6yds away (24'). So, think about that: a TOP PRO should EXPECT, on average, to be >20' away from only 150yds (most hitting between PW and 8iron)...

Realizing this was really a watershed moment in my game. It not only helps your mental game by really understanding what your expectations SHOULD be (I just sorta figure that if I set my dispersal at 6% - just throwing that number out there, not like I've measured it or think that I'm ACTUALLY a 6%), then I can plan my course management better.

Example: If I'm 200yds out, fairway, no wind, perfect lie, but there's water to the right of the green and pin in the middle 12yds from the water, and I know my average shot will be left/right 6% of 200 = 12yds, I can set up my shot 6yds left of the pin and be reasonably confident that I'm not going to find the water, but also reasonably confident that I'll be less than 50' from the pin (54' left to 18' right). Moreover, I can know that I should be HAPPY being 50' left since that's the average shot for me from that distance given where I was aiming.

[bonds]

I've typed up and deleted a couple responses before posting, mostly because I wasn't quite sure how to respond. So here's an inflammatory comment: Course management is overrated as an issue for mid 'cappers.

For me it's not so much a question of course management as it is of execution. My scores have been all over the map the last month or so and a lot of the painful rounds have been ones where I just can't take care of business on simple shots. When you don't know where or how far a shot is going to go, that's an execution problem. When you can't get the ball anywhere on the green from a good lie on a greenside bunker, that's an execution problem. When you three putt from inside two feet, that's an execution problem. When you can't manage to chip out of the trees through a giant gap, that's an execution problem. I've done all of those things and they've resulted in double bogeys or worse.

A poorly executed shot (e.g. mishitting a standard shot from the fairway and dumping it in the bunker) will often compound itself. A lot of the time this isn't the result of bad course management - it's just a bad shot.

When I can control the ball, my card is mostly pars and bogeys with the occasional birdie - I don't get up and down often enough to be a low 'capper. When I can't execute standard shots, bogey is a good score and everything else tends to be an 'other'.

[black knight]

Just from my personal experience playing with a lot of mid to high handicappers, I think that management is UNDERrated. Of course it's important to be able to execute shots, but given that you can't change that on the course, the biggest influence you DO have control over - and one that is very very easy to work on - is course management. It's rarely ever practiced, or even thought about as something you CAN practice...but it is, and you can.

Here's a great example. You're on a 490 par 5 and you hit your drive 260 into the fairway. There's trees left and right, but no other real trouble...what do you hit for your second shot?

[bonds]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a great example. You're on a 490 par 5 and you hit your drive 260 into the fairway. There's trees left and right, but no other real trouble...what do you hit for your second shot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I'm going to pretend that we're talking about my game. That's a pretty decent drive, but not unrealistic.

230 left to the middle of the green. Going left or right is trouble, will likely drop at least one shot. I do not hit 3 wood well, although the distance is borderline reachable. A good shot would likely leave a chip or short pitch. Assuming this is just regular play for score, I'm likely to pass on the 3 wood - too much variance left and right and the 20-40 yard pitch resulting from a good but not great shot is not a strength.

One optimal wedge distance for me is 80 yards. To get there, assuming a middle pin, I need 150 yards, which (assuming little to no wind) means one of two shots - a full 7 iron or a punched 4 or 5 iron. The punch shot has lower horizontal (left or right) variance but greater distance variance than the 7 iron. Assuming that I'm having a decent ballstriking day, I'll take the punch shot to minimize the risk of shot loss - it doesn't make that much difference if I'm at 70, 80, 90 or 100 yards, a wedge from the fairway is a high percentage shot.

Okay, sensei?

ETA: When I say course management is overrated, I'm basing my opinion on a pretty limited sample size. I mostly play with 6-14 handicaps and I don't feel like I see all that many glaring mental errors. There are some - being overagressive on long putts, for one - but I see more execution errors.

[black knight]

Yeah, that's exactly how you should be thinking...but I've NEVER played with a 12+ handicapper who did that...they all hit 3iron or some sort of wood trying to get it as close as possible...when even if they hit it good and leave themselves 40yds short, they SUCK from that distance anyway...so they should just hit it to a good full-ish wedge and try that...but I find that thought process to be amazingly rare.