AK TPTK - can I lay this down to CRAI on the river?

[KCrow]

Villain is 17/10/4.77 - Stats look a little nittish but about 20hands earlier I saw him call a 5bet AI for 100bb with 77 preflop.

Could I have played this hand any differently, is this just throwing cash away if I fold? I don't really see what I beat apart from AJ, AQ and AT, and I don't really see these hands being played like this.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $20.50
BB: $49.50
UTG: $113.80
CO: $50
Hero (BTN): $50

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7</font>, BB calls $7

River: ($23.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $37.75 and is All-In</font>, Hero........

[Profish2285]

Im folding. He looks really nitty and his action suggests a set. River aggression is so rarely a bluff. I really dont think he is randomly going nuts with a weaker ace. He has no reason to believe you have a weaker ace and are going to fold it. I really dont think players crai bluff at this level pretty much ever and very rarely do it with top pair. With that said, his line does look fishy though.

[Arp220]

I would probably have just checked behind on the river. As played.... tough choice. I doubt he has a straight (would have folded flop) but a set or 2 pair are very possible. As is AQ... if I was feeling lucky I'd call but I'd *probably* fold.

[bsball8806]

Reasons why I call:

1. You're getting about 2.67:1 odds on your money
3. Your read that he might be a little stupid with his money, even though he's a nit
2. Villain's line is very suspicious. I actually see you ahead a lot here. What kind of hand c/r the river after c/c the entire way? He can't have a flush, and with his stats I can't really see him having any straight. I guess A9s could have flopped 2pair, but I see it much more likely to raise the turn. Very doubtful he has 44 or even 88. I think 55 raises at some point before the river, though IDK. I think a floating flop 88 or a flopped middle set with 99 are the most likely STRONG holdings he has, but this line smells. Call.

[bsball8806]

btw i probably check behind the river, given the opportunity.

[shooot@04]

the line smells like a flopped set to me, easy fold

[dubiousdrift]

I agree with others that his line smells like a set or maybe he turned two pair after floating with 89 on the flop. It's unlikely, but certainly not impossible that if the villain has seen you 'getting out of line' by being aggressive with position more than he thinks you should, this could be a move made to look like a set of 8's or 9's. Especially if he's seen you fold to a c/r after being aggressive.

I think you are crossing the commitment threshold as he calls your bet on the flop. Your plan for the hand can certainly include firing a second shell w/TPTK on the turn, but I'm not sure that you would want to be getting committed at this point. You have 100BB stacks with a 3xBB raise pre-flop which puts you in awkward territory from an SPR perspective. When he checks the river, I expect to be WA/WB and not committed to getting the rest of my stack in. I check behind on the river.

If I do feel sticky and make the call, I am hoping against hope that he shows AQ. I also start taking copious notes about the player. You just paid a premium for the information, make sure to get value out of it next time you sit at the same table.