Pittsburgh vs. Miami GAME ANALYSIS

[BobJoeJim]

With the Mansion promotion a lot of people have a very obvious interest in this game, but so far all the talk is about how the bonus works, and whether to hedge, and whatnot. Let's actually talk football now!

How would you handicap this game? How likely do you think it is that the non-hedgers will win the $1000? If you didn't have the cash for the promo, which team would you put $50 on?

[thomasperfecto]

I live in England and know nothing about NFL but I chatted with some America collegue's of mine today about it.
They said that two teams are pretty evenly matched usually but that the money would be on the Steelers as they're playing at home and that gives them a big advantage.

Not a great analysis but it's all I have and if I only $50 to play with it would be on the steelers

[136913691369]

I just received a magazine in the mail from "Vegas Experts" which I think is sponsored by nine.com. Their handicappers said go with Miami (there was no mention of a point spread).

I'm not hedging this bet though anyway.

[SoloAJ]

I was thinking about taking Miami moneyline in this one if I decided to bet it. That was before I saw the promo. Now I'm just letting it ride on the Steelers because I'm going for the full grand. Go Stillers.

Note: Miami could definitely be heavily overhyped this year. Their defense may or may not be good this year and the offense should be allright, but who knows. They finished strong last year, yes....but they did it mostly against lame teams...Steelers are looking to come out strong this season.

Read: I see it as a tossup at -5 or so.

[thomasperfecto]

Dolphins Average Team Rankings Steelers
20.7 Total Offense 12.5
20.1 Total Defense 11.5
16.4 Passing Offense 16.8
16.9 Passing Defense 12.1
16.2 Rushing Offense 9.7
14.7 Rushing Defense 4.8
18.0 Receiving Offense 18.3
19.3 Receiving Defense 15.0
9.3 Punting 25.7
15.2 Return 20.0
23.5 Kicking 22.3

No idea what any of that means but steelers seem to come out on top

[Levarkin]

I prefer the Dolphins side here. The Steelers lost some key players in the off-season, the most critical being Randle El, von Oelhoffen, Hope, and Bettis, though at least the last hole is capably enough filled by Staley. The Steelers may get the stepped up production they need from replacements such as Cedrick Wilson, but that could take time. The Dolphins only got stronger, adding a real starting QB in Culpepper, leaving them with no obvious weaknesses.

The win streak Miami put together at the end of the 2005 season was pretty impressive, and while they played some weak teams at home, they were able to go to Oakland, San Diego, and New England, and come out with a win each time. They were 7-point, 13.5-point, and 6.5-point dogs respectively in those games, but squeaked out wins. Nick Saban really seems to have this team going in the right direction.

I hate making assumptions about Week 1, but this seems like a case of a line that's influenced by the perception of the Steelers as Super Bowl champs, not as a strong but slightly weakened team that will have stiff competition in their conference and division if they're looking to repeat last year's success. I like the Dolphins to put up quite a bit of resistance, and give them a respectable shot of winning. I don't like the Steelers on this side of the 3, and thus think the Dolphins the better bet.

[dankhank]

i like the dolphins also. they struggled for some strange reason early last year, and then became a solid team late. nick saban one of the best coaches in the league. ronnie brown underrated as a running back and they add culpepper at QB. they still have a very good defense although it is getting older. steelers probably slightly overrated due to being super bowl champs.

[markum9]

Pittsburgh is going to be blitzing the heck out of Culpepper who's going to be gun-shy with the pass-rush and his surgically prepared knee, especially considering he isn't going to be comfortable on a new team and hasn't seen a real game since October. Bill Cowher is one of the great coaches in his ability to prepare and scheme for his opponent, which obviously he's had all pre-season to do. While I think that Miami will be good, they seem to be everyone's Cinderella team this year and are over-hyped. Not to mention they're IN Pittsburgh.

Also, everyone thinks that Ronnie Brown is going to be the next big thing, but he's only split carries for one season. Miami gave most of the grind-it-out carries to R. Williams, allowing Brown to inflate his ypc late in games and in good running situations.

On the flip side, while I think Big Ben is in better condition than Culpepper because he has no arm/leg issues, he's missed some pre-season time, as has Hines Ward. Anyone know Ward's status for this game?

In the end though, I think the Steelers will cover.

[SoloAJ]

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer the Dolphins side here. The Steelers lost some key players....such as Bettis, though at least the last hole is capably enough filled by Staley.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mean to degrade you but if you think that is going to happen you aren't following Pittsburgh very well. Staley has looked absolutely terrible so far, slow and not good at all.

That said, Miami has a really good chance I would say, but they are a victim of overhype right now. The fact is, Steelers at home by 5 or more is very likely. Steelers have a strong defense and should be able to put up some points on a Miami D that is aging.....

At least I hope that is the analysis...

[SoloAJ]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone know Ward's status for this game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparantly he is expected to play and be just fine. He will be crucial I think to the 5 point cover I'm in at.