check through the turn?

[n.s.]

All the discussion lately about checking through the turn with outs came into my head when I was playing this hand (although I realize that this hand is very different).

Villain here is a mega-fish who's been running hot. He's very loose and loves to cold-call PF with just about anything and will peel the flop with just about any hand or draw. He is pretty passive in general, but he likes to c/r his good hands. He not a complete showdown monkey and can actually fold once in a while.

My image is pretty tight - HJ is likely aware of this, but SB may not be.

PF Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
folds to decent but laggy player in the HJ who opens, Hero 3-bets, button folds, SB (villain) calls, BB folds, HJ calls.

Flop A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 10 SB)
SB checks, HJ checks, Hero bets, SB calls, HJ folds.

Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 6 BB)
SB checks, hero...

check or bet, and if you bet, what do you do when raised? If we get check-raised, villain is almost certainly beating us, but our club outs may or may not be good. I really doubt that this guy will bluff on the river if I check behind, but he may make a terrible value bet.

[bakku]

he can't call with his flush draw or crappy pair if you don't bet. if he has an A or a J or a flush, good for him. more often than not you'll have the best hand and need to take him to valuetown.

[SNOWBALL]

You should bet the turn because the combined probability that you are best with the chance that you will suck out, plus the option to give youself a free showdown on the river, has a ton of value here.

If CRed, you should call, and then fold the river unless you made a set or a flush.

[n.s.]

Thanks for the input guys - I guess this is a pretty standard one.

Results:

I bet the turn, SB calls. River is an offsuit Q and I check it through. SB takes it down with A4o, no club. I was very sad when he left the table a few orbits later.