NLTRN - A Deceptively Weak Hand

[Dromar]

$100 live HU match (so no converter). Villain has shown a tendency to fold too often OOP after calling preflop. Also, based on the few showdowns I've seen so far, he's willing to call preflop with pretty much anything suited and/or connected if he feels I'm weak. Beside those leaks, he's pretty strong unfortunately.

Blinds 10/20.
Hero t1055
Villain t 945

Hero is SB with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises to 80. Villain Calls.

Flop: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. (pot = 160)
Villain checks. Hero bets 120. Villain thinks, pushes for 745 more. Hero...

1. call or fold?
2. what range would you put villain on?
3. critique preflop raise and bet.

I'll post my thoughts later on.

[Indiana]

call(instantly)...oh and preflop u made a HUGE error raising like that.

Indy

[abcjnich]

Call. If you don't want to get the money in here then don't cbet.

Let's say you put him on an overpair and any 2. I'm not going to do the math but I think the pot odds are there.

I think pf raise is a little big. you're making it harder to get any kind of implied odds from hitting a big hand.

[Dromar]

[ QUOTE ]
call(instantly)...oh and preflop u made a HUGE error raising like that.

Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying I shouldn't have raised, or that I should have only raised to 50 or 55?

[jay_shark]

I don't like 6-3 s and I dont think it's that much better than 6-2 s which I probably fold . With that in mind , I probably muck 6-3 s but I would lean more towards a call/raise with something like 6-4s or 6-5s . Again , I think most of the value from connectors comes from the disguised straight and 6-3 doesn't have much straight potential .

On the flop , you're getting pot odds of 1025:625 ~1.64:1 and so you need to win 1/(2.64) =37.8787% for the call to be profitable .

A call seems pretty good here .

As for his range , he may have a 4-x or possibly a better flush draw or even 2-x for trips . Bottom line is that you have straight outs , flush outs and possibly 3 more outs for the 6 .

[Dromar]

It was 745 more, not 745 total, so the odds I need are ~39.42%.

At first I had planned to call(instantly), but then I realized that most of the hands he would push don't give me very great odds.

I did a little pokerstove and gave him a pushing range of:
77-44,22,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah5h,A4s,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,K h9h,Kh8h,Kh7h,K4s,
QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,Qh8h,JhTh,Jh9h,74s,64s,54s,52s,42s+ ,32s,54o

Which leaves me just short with ~37.5% equity. This doesn't include bluffs however. And now that I think of it, it doesn't include 53s or 53o, which he could push with also.

So I was slowed down and forced to think a bit when I realized that I wasn't in good shape against a flush draw, an overpair, or a 2, which I felt was a large piece of his range. OTOH, if he had a 4, a straight draw, or a bluff, I'm in good shape. The straight draws add quite a bit of equity to my hand, but I think he's folding 53 preflop a lot.

Anyway, I had to think about this one more than I thought I would have to, so I thought I would post it.

I eventually called. Results in white:

<font color="white"> I called, he flipped over Ks6s, and I blanked out. I was lucky to find out that he's horrible at short stack play though, and eventually won. </font>

[daveT]

FWIW, I am willing to play 63 suited.

I'm calling on the flop OESFD + possible bluff = 6 extra outs.

12 outs almost guaranteed. I would be able to add 2 more outs to compensate for the bluff catching for a total of 14 outs. You are winning about half the time here, so yes, calling is goot, IMO.