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  #11  
Old 11-26-2007, 11:18 AM
BarryLyndon BarryLyndon is offline
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Default Re: I cannot [censored] stand this spot

River is an easy fold.

Flop can be argued either way. You raise here because you have the best hand and you want to protect it. 12 overcards give you grief. You have position, but one of twelve overcards is going to hit 40% of the time. He can legitimately check turn, bet river with any one of them. And most of the time, he will have gotten there.

It's an MP2 raise. I think you should RR this flop to 1200, fold to a push.

Barry
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  #12  
Old 11-26-2007, 02:29 PM
LuckyLloyd LuckyLloyd is offline
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Default Re: I cannot [censored] stand this spot

Call. You are getting 3:1. I would 3 bet pre.
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  #13  
Old 11-26-2007, 03:02 PM
McMelchior McMelchior is offline
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Default Re: I cannot [censored] stand this spot

[ QUOTE ]
I would 3 bet pre.

[/ QUOTE ]
I might be on to a leak in my game.

Assuming the random player raises 14% of his hands here
(77+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo)

he's likely to be folding around 50% (you make 4.5BB), coming over the top with 20% of that range (JJ+,AKs,AKo) (you lose 9BB), and calling with approximately 30% (remaining pairs, AQs, some suited connecters etc.).

Some tricky opponents will flat call with KK or AA.

If he calls you'll see overcards on the flop 70% of the time, and you'll generally have to commit a c-bet of at least 14BB hoping to take down the 19.5BB pot on the flop.

If no overcard show up on the flop, it actually increases the likelyhood that he's flopped at set.

So now you've invested more than a third of your stack ... without really knowing where you are?

Can someone explain to me why 3-betting PF isn't turning your perfectly decent hand into a bluff?
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  #14  
Old 11-26-2007, 07:09 PM
MLG MLG is offline
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Default Re: I cannot [censored] stand this spot

I think reraising preflop planning to fold is pretty bad. I don't particularly like raising the flop either. Both of those options seem to be sacrificing EV in order to give yourself an easier decision later on in the hand.

Interestingly enough, I think betting the turn has a surprising amount of merit. There would traditionally be several reasons to check the turn. First, in order to enduce a bluff...but we don't want that, since we are planning to fold to a river bet. A second reason to check the turn, is to excercise pot control planning to value bet later streets. The call flop, and check turn planning to either call a river bet, or bet ourselves if he checks, is a traditional and good line for a good but not great made hand. However, our hand is not strong enough to value bet, if he checks, and we are folding to a bet. The third reason to check, is the most compelling...only better hands call, and worse hands fold a way-ahead, way-behind situation. The thing is, that while that's true, the vast majority of the time that our opponent is way behind he is not planning on putting another chip in the pot unless he improves to beat you, so by checking behind you are giving him a free shot to improve.


Now, that doesnt mean that its an automatic bet at all, in fact a check may still be better, because most opponents are easy to play against. That is, they play predictably, so you don't need to really worry that you are getting bluffed too often on the river, which also means that giving an opponent who is giving up a free chance to catch you isn't the end of the world, since you arent really confronted with a reverse implied odds situation since you won't call a river bet. My point is only that betting this turn is an important weapon to have in your arsenal against better players, or you end up being the one playing to predictably.
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