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  #1  
Old 11-30-2007, 03:33 AM
Atg Dax Atg Dax is offline
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Default Repeating losing hand - AQ

100$ MTT, 27 players left avarage stack 4500, blinds 200-100
this is a problem hand / situation I get into many times at this stage of the tournament.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">AQ-Hero (t2750)</font>
MP1 (t2065)
MP2 (t3845)
CO (t2235)
Button (t14108)
SB (t1560)
<font color="#C00000">BB (t1915)</font>

Preflop: AQ-Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">AQ-Hero raises to t2750</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls t1715 (All-In).

Flop: (t4765) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t4765) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t4765) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3930
{He called with 99}

Another hand in same stage of the tournament:
Im in the BB (200) all fold to the button who raises 400 more, SB folds, I have AQo. My stack is 3600 his is 2700.
Whats the right play here ? assuming i just played 10 hands there so no info on the BTN player.
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  #2  
Old 11-30-2007, 04:47 AM
Steve Williams Steve Williams is offline
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Default Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ

ATG,

1st hand your raise is too big. You have enough chips to raise 3x, see a flop and still have enough to play on. On Stars the antes are so small you are really risking a lot for a little...you will probably get looked up only by hands that beat you since the all in screams AK-AQ.

Hand 2 my default is to move in. You have a hand with good showdown value against someone who's range includes mediocre to terrible hands, especially since his stack is low.
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  #3  
Old 11-30-2007, 07:12 PM
Annette_15 Annette_15 is offline
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Default Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ

I hate the utg shove here. Ur not getting called by anything but JJ+ and AK. Ur risking 2700 to win 300... doesnt seem right to me. I'd make it 500-600 here and just see what happens. If i get reraised I'd probably fold. If someone flatcalls im shoving a lot of flops if i have a pair or two overs or draws etc. It really sucks playing this hand OOP, and I dont see any harm in folding it UTG either as ur just getting urself in trouble most of the time.
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  #4  
Old 11-30-2007, 07:22 PM
puerilesenile puerilesenile is offline
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Default Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ

You have way too many chis to be shoving, especially with no antes to steal. I would lead towards folding here because your just asking to get reraised, in which case you would have to fold.
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  #5  
Old 11-30-2007, 07:23 PM
Sweet Chariot Sweet Chariot is offline
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Default Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ

agreed, nothing wrong with a fold here UTG but raise to 500 has to be better than 14BB shove?
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  #6  
Old 11-30-2007, 07:53 PM
Willd Willd is offline
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Default Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ

I'm fairly sure open shoving is a lot better than folding here, especially if people are calling as tight as JJ+,AK. I'm doing the calculations as I write this but that's only 3% of hands which means 83% of the time you take down the blinds and the other 17% of the time you're 29% to win 3050, assuming you're called by someone who covers you.

.83 * 300 = 249
.17 (.29 * 3050 - .71 * 2750) = -181.56

So you win 67 chips on average by open shoving if the calling range of JJ+,AK is correct. The numbers are slightly different if you're called by bb/sb (it's more +ev if called by someone who doesn't cover you outside of the blinds) but it's never -ev against that calling range. Against a more reasonable calling range of 88+, AQ I'm fairly sure it's still +ev but not by so much and it's quite possible that it's actually completely unexploitable to open shove here.

That doesn't mean that open shoving is necessarily the most +ev play here though, and I think I would normally raise/call in a standard online tourney. If it was live then raise/fold might be an option but online I think it's pretty bad.

Unless the table was really tight I would say raise/call &gt; shove &gt;&gt; raise/fold &gt; fold.

Edit to add hand 2 is a very standard shove against 99.9% of players.
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  #7  
Old 11-30-2007, 08:17 PM
Sweet Chariot Sweet Chariot is offline
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Default Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ

yeah hand 2 standard
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  #8  
Old 11-30-2007, 08:20 PM
Annette_15 Annette_15 is offline
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Default Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ

[ QUOTE ]
I'm fairly sure open shoving is a lot better than folding here, especially if people are calling as tight as JJ+,AK. I'm doing the calculations as I write this but that's only 3% of hands which means 83% of the time you take down the blinds and the other 17% of the time you're 29% to win 3050, assuming you're called by someone who covers you.

.83 * 300 = 249
.17 (.29 * 3050 - .71 * 2750) = -181.56

So you win 67 chips on average by open shoving if the calling range of JJ+,AK is correct. The numbers are slightly different if you're called by bb/sb (it's more +ev if called by someone who doesn't cover you outside of the blinds) but it's never -ev against that calling range. Against a more reasonable calling range of 88+, AQ I'm fairly sure it's still +ev but not by so much and it's quite possible that it's actually completely unexploitable to open shove here.

That doesn't mean that open shoving is necessarily the most +ev play here though, and I think I would normally raise/call in a standard online tourney. If it was live then raise/fold might be an option but online I think it's pretty bad.

Unless the table was really tight I would say raise/call &gt; shove &gt;&gt; raise/fold &gt; fold.

Edit to add hand 2 is a very standard shove against 99.9% of players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whats ur cut off range for shoving here then?
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  #9  
Old 11-30-2007, 08:44 PM
Jean Jean is offline
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Default Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ

I agree with Willd. Moreover, if you add pairs down to 88 to the calling range, I guess you're adding hands like AJ too ? So all in all, pushing seems significantly better than folding no matter the context. I also agree that some standard raise would be best.

And for hand 2, all-in of course, feets on the table [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #10  
Old 11-30-2007, 08:53 PM
romdom romdom is offline
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Default Re: Repeating losing hand - AQ

can we have a regular "ask annette" deal here weekly or something?
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