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Old 11-29-2007, 01:21 AM
Kanis Kanis is offline
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Default Omaha HI 50: To push turn or not?

Played this hand against fairly aggressive opponent. On flop it was pretty obvious that he had a drawing hand. What do you like my push on turn? I thought it was more likely he had a flush draw and I had plenty of outs in river.

GAME #739948291: Omaha PL $0.25/$0.50 2007-11-29 04:46:52
Table Wormwood (Heads Up)
Seat 3: HERO ($124.16 in chips)
Seat 8: VILLAIN ($68.19 in chips) BUTTON
VILLAIN: Post SB $0.25
HERO: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [9c Qs 9d Qh]
VILLAIN: Raise $1.25
HERO: Raise $4.00
VILLAIN: Call $3.00
*** FLOP *** [6s 9s 3c]
HERO: Bet $9.00
VILLAIN: Call $9.00
*** TURN *** [5c]
HERO: Bet $27.00
VILLAIN: Raise $54.69
HERO: Call $27.69
*** RIVER *** [Js]
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $135.38 Rake $1.00

Result in white:
<font color="white"> VILLAIN: wins $135.38 with a straight
Dealt to VILLAIN [2h 4c 5d Qc] </font>
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  #2  
Old 11-29-2007, 02:13 AM
tmcdmck tmcdmck is offline
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Default Re: Omaha HI 50: To push turn or not?

just to make things clear, by push you do mean bet pot right? anyway
the issue really revolves around what portion of his range you give to flushdraw, and what portion you give to straightdraw. i have no idea why you specifically weight his range towards flushdraw: could you expand on that? anyway: there is loads of maths, and a couple of read dependant points
1) does villain call turn with a flushdraw? if so bet turn all day long: considering your redraws the money you get from them calling with a flushdraw/ you filling up more than makes up for that which you lose to a straight
2) if not here is the maths:

at the start of the turn there is $27 in the pot. when you bet and they have a flushdraw, you win a $27 pot for $13.5 profit. if they have a straight you have 23% equity. presumabley they will shove, meaning you have to call $27.69, which you would actually require 25% equity to correctly do so. but, we will just assume there is enough random crap in their range to make you pot committed (lower sets every now and then, a flush draw they decide to play this way despite the fact they almost always fold it. i know this is unlikely, but it only has to be very occasional). for the sake of argument lets say you have exactly 25% equity vs their range. therefore when they have a straight you lose on average 3/4 of your money you put in on the turn ($41) and gain 1/4 of the money already in the pot (6.75), meaning you lose $34.25

therefore you win $13.5 when they have a flush draw, and lose $34.1 when they have a straight by potting the turn. if i am not mistaken that means they have to have a straight 28% of the time or less for potting the turn to be profitable, which is possible, though i reckon they have one a bit more, idk, depends on read. but, combined with the fact that they might suck enough to call with a flushdraw, potting the turn could well be +ev, though never by much unless villain calls with all sorts of crap we havent even considered.

BUT i doubt it is optimal. betting smaller would definitely skew the numbers in your favour (although it would not pot commit you leading to some really hard decisions on the turn, which it might be worth potting the turn to avoid). check shoving would increase the % of their range which was a flush, and they would NOT be pot commited to a call when you shoved, meaning you would win a $81 pot from them when they had a fd rather than a $27 one. But you would risk them checking behind and getting a free card with a fd. i cannot be bothered to do maths for this right now :P

anyway, i never play omaha, so take my advice with a pinch of salt. I also am a bit of a noob at poker maths, so i might have gotten something terribley wrong. but basically: potting turn is read dependant, butif wrong, it is never that wrong. if they are aggressive and will usually pot the turn if checked to a check shove is MUCH better.
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  #3  
Old 11-29-2007, 02:37 AM
Kanis Kanis is offline
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Default Re: Omaha HI 50: To push turn or not?

Thanks for your post! I thought that flush draw was more likely because he had pot it pre-flop and called my reraise. I thought he had something like A-J-T-9 or some high cards.

Looking that turn bet now, it was obvious mistake. On turn nuts would be 7-8 and there are several other straight possibilities. I guess he wouldn't have called pot-size bet with bare flush draw. So smaller bet would be okay though it might look a bit wimpy. I don't like checking here because giving free cards in Omaha is absolute no-no.

Well anyways, I think I would have been committed to this hand. For example if I had made 20 dollars raise on turn he would have simply pushed all-in. And it's EV+ play to call 34 dollars more in this spot because there is 100 bucks in the pot.
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Old 11-29-2007, 02:50 AM
tmcdmck tmcdmck is offline
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Default Re: Omaha HI 50: To push turn or not?

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for your post! I thought that flush draw was more likely because he had pot it pre-flop and called my reraise. I thought he had something like A-J-T-9 or some high cards.

Looking that turn bet now, it was obvious mistake. On turn nuts would be 7-8 and there are several other straight possibilities. I guess he wouldn't have called pot-size bet with bare flush draw. So smaller bet would be okay though it might look a bit wimpy. I don't like checking here because giving free cards in Omaha is absolute no-no.

Well anyways, I think I would have been committed to this hand. For example if I had made 20 dollars raise on turn he would have simply pushed all-in. And it's EV+ play to call 34 dollars more in this spot because there is 100 bucks in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) good logic about why he is more likely to have a flush. I had not thought of that, but makes sense.
2) it would not be ev+ to call on the turn if he shoved a str8 after you bet 20. as i mentioned, you have 23% equity (just realised you actually have 25% equity, used a holdem odds calc rather than an omaha one, oops), and you would not be getting 3:1, so calling would be -ev. you would not have pot odds to call (close but not quite).
3) if you were to check the turn, it would not be to give a free card, it would be to exploit his aggessive tendencies by check raising. obviously if you think he would take a free card do not do it. but once again, you are not checking to give a free card. FURTHERMORE we are not even sure we are ahead, so it is not exactly a simple case of giving a free card.
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  #5  
Old 11-29-2007, 03:15 AM
Kanis Kanis is offline
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Default Re: Omaha HI 50: To push turn or not?

Yeah it's pretty close with EV+/EV-. Let's look at that again. Since villain has $68.19, that's our effective stacks.

On flop pot is 9 dollars, I pot it and villain calls. Now pot is 27 dollars and opponent has paid 13.50 dollars so far. In other words he has about 55 $ left. If I bet 20 dollars on turn I have to call 35 more. So the pot grows from 27 to 47 to 102.

My pot odds are 102:35 and I my chances to improve are 4:1. By these numbers I am justified to call max 28 dollars bet. But since there is some kind of possibility that I am still leading it's pretty easy call.
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  #6  
Old 11-29-2007, 03:23 AM
tmcdmck tmcdmck is offline
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Default Re: Omaha HI 50: To push turn or not?

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah it's pretty close with EV+/EV-. Let's look at that again. Since villain has $68.19, that's our effective stacks.

On flop pot is 9 dollars, I pot it and villain calls. Now pot is 27 dollars and opponent has paid 13.50 dollars so far. In other words he has about 55 $ left. If I bet 20 dollars on turn I have to call 35 more. So the pot grows from 27 to 47 to 102.

My pot odds are 102:35 and I my chances to improve are 4:1. By these numbers I am justified to call max 28 dollars bet. But since there is some kind of possibility that I am still leading it's pretty easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

first of all your odds of improving are 3:1 (25%) :P

second of all yes it might well be a call if they shove with random crap, but if you are going to call a shove anyway you might aswell pot it, so it seems a bit besides the point to discuss it. the whole reason i suggested betting less than pot was to allow you to get away from a str8 slightly cheaply. it was probably a pretty meritless suggestion, i was just going through the options.
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