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  #41  
Old 06-20-2006, 08:35 PM
TomBrooks TomBrooks is offline
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Default Re: the limp reraise

TURN: I believe you are likely behind when SB bets out on turn. However, I would call that bet.

RIVER as played: I would call.
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  #42  
Old 06-21-2006, 12:19 AM
TheHip41 TheHip41 is offline
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Default Re: the limp reraise

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I don't fold overpairs heads-up on the river getting 21:1. I just don't. Possibly this is a leak. Fortunately, though, the situation doesn't come up much

[/ QUOTE ]


It's only 21-1 because you spewed on the turn. If you didn't cap the flop, and didn't raise the turn, it wouldn't be 21-1. Just because you added 3BB of your own money doesn't make it a better river call.

This is like capping the flop with a gutshot so you can call "profitably" on the turn.
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  #43  
Old 06-21-2006, 12:49 AM
buzz_ly buzz_ly is offline
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Default Re: the limp reraise

Ugh.

That is a balls to the walls turn raise. If I cap and the guy leads again i usually just call there with KK. Raise your hand if you think that's weak.

I cap flop and call down after he leads out on turn.
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  #44  
Old 06-21-2006, 01:06 AM
Artsemis Artsemis is offline
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Default Re: the limp reraise

[ QUOTE ]
It's only 21-1 because you spewed on the turn. If you didn't cap the flop, and didn't raise the turn, it wouldn't be 21-1. Just because you added 3BB of your own money doesn't make it a better river call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it does.

Granted, it means your turn play was very bad, but it definately makes it a better river call.
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  #45  
Old 06-21-2006, 01:39 AM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Default Re: the limp reraise

[ QUOTE ]
It's only 21-1 because you spewed on the turn. If you didn't cap the flop, and didn't raise the turn, it wouldn't be 21-1. Just because you added 3BB of your own money doesn't make it a better river call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the odds weren't so high, SB's hand wouldn't be as well defined, either. We do agree about what he has, though. We both think he has a set.

[ QUOTE ]
This is like capping the flop with a gutshot so you can call "profitably" on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I know it's not good to do this.


Anyway, the hand is complicated. SB's flop check/3-bet is alarming and most likely means one of these things: (1) a set, (2) a big draw, (3) a made hand like top pair or an overpair that he's trying desperately to protect.

To me, capping it now seems like an okay idea. (Note we did get rid of one player by doing so, although I'll admit he may have just had runner-runner outs against our hand, as unlikely as that may seem given his preflop and flop raises; I don't really know what he had at all.) The cap is possibly for value and could give us some protection as well if someone decides to ditch, say, Ax now instead of getting trapped. One drawback, though, is that is does potentially set up another checkraise by SB on the turn.

But, all right, he leads instead. I think that's a good time to start calling down. He could still be betting a draw; he could have AhQh; he could be firing one last time with A9 or JJ before beginning to call down himself. We don't know. Quite likely he has a set, though.

If he has a set, raising the turn does hardly anything for us. We'd be better off spending those two BBs calling twice and letting the player behind us give us a little better odds on our very weak draw.

If he's got something we're beating, well, now a raise is for value and could also protect us against whatever 0-5 outer the player behind us might be willing to fold for two more. (He's not folding any draw that's better than that.) But putting pressure on the second player is really only good if we're ahead (we really can't realistically expect to buy any outs here very often), and frequently (over half of the time, I'm thinking), we won't be ahead. Hand protection is great, especially in a big pot, but it does lose much of its value if we're very frequently drawing ourselves and can't expect to improve our chances of winning with a raise if we are behind.

With your plan of waiting and popping the turn, most likely 4 people go to the big streets. Probably we'll still get better protection this way (than with a flop cap), but it's hard to say for certain, and the turn card could of course affect those protection opportunities.

All right, in any case, the pot is now 1 BB smaller than it was after Hero actually capped the flop, and SB leads the turn. We pop it. Let's assume the other players go away now. SB 3-bets. We're getting 17:1, and we just paid 2 BBs to discover we're even more likely to be beat and should think about folding what is probably just a 2-outer.

Partly what's happened is that we've paid for information, and, if we make the fold, we've given up our chances of sucking out on the river for the same potential cost as calling down would have given us. If we needed a set all along, this is an inferior plan to beginning to call down on the turn. And neither plan is ideal, versus the actual set we were up against. Versus a set, what we should have done on the turn is fold to SB's initial bet.

Which would be silly, but I'm trying to illustrate that the hand is complicated. And, like I said before, I do see the merit in your plan. It's probably not what I would have done, and part of the reason I like my plan better is that I'm not very good at raise-folding overpairs in big pots on the turn. But, having admitted that, I'm also not convinced beginning to call down on the turn isn't a better idea anyway.

By the way, we don't actually disagree on this hand as much as I think we're making it sound like we do. And I don't really have a strong opinion on PBob's river fold. I just wouldn't have made it myself, if I had suddenly been dropped into the hand at that point and had taken over for Hero.
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  #46  
Old 06-21-2006, 01:50 AM
That Fish That Fish is offline
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Default Re: the limp reraise

[ QUOTE ]
...if a TAG plays a hand like this, and raises the river, he will have AA always.


[/ QUOTE ]

EXACTLY!

So given your read above, if you are SB and have 22/66 and pokerbob raises this river you...call?

I don't like folding because:
22 = 3
66 = 3
99 = 3
J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 1
7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 1
Even discounting the non-set hands quite a bit it's still enough that getting 21.5:1 (that's 4.4%) it's a call.

The raise only needs to get a fold 4% of the time to be +EV.

The metagame benefits of a play like this have to be worth at least a couple of BB. Would you ever fold to one of hero's raises if you saw him pull a stunt like this?
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  #47  
Old 06-21-2006, 01:53 AM
TheHip41 TheHip41 is offline
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Default Re: the limp reraise

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...if a TAG plays a hand like this, and raises the river, he will have AA always.


[/ QUOTE ]

EXACTLY!

So given your read above, if you are SB and have 22/66 and pokerbob raises this river you...call?

I don't like folding because:
22 = 3
66 = 3
99 = 3
J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 1
7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] = 1
Even discounting the non-set hands quite a bit it's still enough that getting 21.5:1 (that's 4.4%) it's a call.

The raise only needs to get a fold 4% of the time to be +EV.

The metagame benefits of a play like this have to be worth at least a couple of BB. Would you ever fold to one of hero's raises if you saw him pull a stunt like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still calling, because i have a set in a huge [censored] pot

raising this river is really bad.
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  #48  
Old 06-21-2006, 01:56 AM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Default Re: the limp reraise

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...if a TAG plays a hand like this, and raises the river, he will have AA always.


[/ QUOTE ]

EXACTLY!

So given your read above, if you are SB and have 22/66 and pokerbob raises this river you...call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's precisely what SB does. Unless he decides to ignore the obvious and 3-bet instead. Which will happen more often than we'll get a fold.

If SB folds, and he hardly ever will, that means he was playing a big draw that missed aggressively, I'm pretty sure.
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  #49  
Old 06-21-2006, 01:58 AM
TheHip41 TheHip41 is offline
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Default Re: the limp reraise

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...if a TAG plays a hand like this, and raises the river, he will have AA always.


[/ QUOTE ]

EXACTLY!

So given your read above, if you are SB and have 22/66 and pokerbob raises this river you...call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's precisely what SB does. Unless he decides to ignore the obvious and 3-bet instead. Which will happen more often than we'll get a fold.

If SB folds, and he hardly ever will, that means he was playing a big draw that missed aggressively, I'm pretty sure.

[/ QUOTE ]


correction, the SB will never, ever fold here. Here is a 22/6 ppl, not a 55/35. He has two pair or better every time. And do you really think ppl fold two pair on that board getting 24-1
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  #50  
Old 06-21-2006, 02:19 AM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 10,145
Default Re: the limp reraise

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...if a TAG plays a hand like this, and raises the river, he will have AA always.


[/ QUOTE ]

EXACTLY!

So given your read above, if you are SB and have 22/66 and pokerbob raises this river you...call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's precisely what SB does. Unless he decides to ignore the obvious and 3-bet instead. Which will happen more often than we'll get a fold.

If SB folds, and he hardly ever will, that means he was playing a big draw that missed aggressively, I'm pretty sure.

[/ QUOTE ]


correction, the SB will never, ever fold here. Here is a 22/6 ppl, not a 55/35. He has two pair or better every time. And do you really think ppl fold two pair on that board getting 24-1

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeez. I'm on your side on this one.

But I'll say this again: The 22/6 is over about 50 hands. That means we've seen SB play, what, 12 hands or so? He's also at a wild table, and that can influence a person's play.

By the way, the Cliffs Notes version of my latest hand analysis is that waiting and popping the turn invests 0.5 BB less (versus capping the flop and beginning to call down on the turn) to dump a hand that's worth about 1 BB if we get 3-bet.

So, when we do get 3-bet, the plan effectively costs us 0.5 BB more than calling down would have. And the question becomes whether or not we gain enough in value and extra protection the times we are best to make up for this.

And I don't know the answer. I do know that it's actually more complicated than this, since, among other things, we can't predict what will fall, what effect that will have, and what the actions of the players behind us will be. And also, since I don't trust my judgment regarding what SB has as much as you trust yours, I think we increase our chances of getting outplayed with a raise-fold turn line.
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