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#1
06-30-2006, 12:09 AM
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How favorable was this chop?
Live tournament, 4-players left. Top places pay 2900, 1700, 800, and 500. I have 250K or 450K chips in play. Blinds 5K/10K/2K. We agree to a 2500-1300-1050-1050 chop. I thought this deal was favorable for me, even though I think I am the best player and am running over the tabke.
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#2
06-30-2006, 12:20 AM
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Re: How favorable was this chop?
[ QUOTE ]
I have 250K or 450K chips in play [/ QUOTE ] It will help to know which of these you in fact had. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Anyway, great deal for you. How much more could you ask for without actually getting 1st prize? There were, after all, still for friggin players left.
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#3
06-30-2006, 12:26 AM
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Re: How favorable was this chop?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I have 250K or 450K chips in play [/ QUOTE ] It will help to know which of these you in fact had. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Anyway, great deal for you. How much more could you ask for without actually getting 1st prize? There were, after all, still for friggin players left. [/ QUOTE ] He probably meant 250 of 450 on the table
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#4
06-30-2006, 12:34 AM
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Re: How favorable was this chop?
(Risk of finishing 4th) * 2,400 + (Risk of finishing 3th) * 2,100 + (Risk of finishing 2nd) * 1,200 >> $400.
Let's say for arguments sake that one time of out 20 things go horrible wrong and you finish 4th. One time out of 10 you end up as #3. And one time out of 5 one of the other scoops up the small stacks and beat you HU. Well, that's already $120 + $210 + $240 = $670. This is a very optimistic assessment. You bought $670 for $400 = 68% profit. Nice.
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#5
06-30-2006, 12:42 AM
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Re: How favorable was this chop?
Seems like a terrible deal.
49.15% of the tournament prize pool 1st gets 55.56% chips you have on table 42.37% you took. (86.2% of first) Depending on the stacks of 2nd/3rd/4th, you would need to feel that you're going to get first more than 86.2% of the time for this to be a bad deal. Honestly, I would want something like $2600-2700 to make this deal. How is it even fair that 4th gets $500 (double the prize) for making a deal?
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#6
06-30-2006, 01:05 AM
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Re: How favorable was this chop?
[ QUOTE ]
(Risk of finishing 4th) * 2,400 + (Risk of finishing 3th) * 2,100 + (Risk of finishing 2nd) * 1,200 >> $400. Let's say for arguments sake that one time of out 20 things go horrible wrong and you finish 4th. One time out of 10 you end up as #3. And one time out of 5 one of the other scoops up the small stacks and beat you HU. Well, that's already $120 + $210 + $240 = $670. This is a very optimistic assessment. You bought $670 for $400 = 68% profit. Nice. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think there was a 1/20th chance I would finish 4th. However, I have 55% of the chips and I am getting 2/3 of the difference between 1st and 2nd, which is better than a chip chop if I was playing one opponent. There are some advantages to playing multiple opponents, as I was repeatedly pushing and not getting called. However, there is some danger of a third place finishand a very samll chance of a fourth place finish. It seems like this makes the deal favorable. I would estimate my chances were 67% 1st, 27% 2nd, 5% 3rd, and 1% 4th, which would give an expectation of 2453, which is a little less than the 2500 I settled for.
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#8
06-30-2006, 02:51 AM
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Re: How favorable was this chop?
I think that it's a good deal for you seeing that you still have 3 opponents that can still take your stack. End it now with only a 16% loss, and that's if you even make it to the end. If somethin blows up and you come in second...well then that would be a $800 loss. $400 or $800? I think it's an even money call.
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