NL 10 - TT on the button, OESD+Overpair underplayed ?

[jhill3535]

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Your hand is too vulnerable to call on flop I think. Get a free card??? Your hand has a very reasonable chance of being the best, freecards hurt you. And if you are behind, then 1/3 you are gonna make a straight.

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How does a free card hurt you, unless you are talking about not being able to extract when you make your straight?

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because if an a,k,q falls on the turn the hand is going to be really hard to play

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I don't see how all of those cards will make it more difficult to play.

1) You have position on the other players.
2) You have a draw to what amounts to very close to the nuts
3) If you are ahead, your opponents have invested more in the pot already than they should with no pair or underpair hands, and they have already made a mistake.
4) Raising forces them to play their hand correctly against you therefore giving you the pot and nothing else when you are ahead, and making you pay too much for your draw when you are behind.
5) Even if an overcard hits the board on the turn, the other players are going to have to be a little worried about the 3 card straight on the board already.

[jhill3535]

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Ahh lol extract? There is a decent chance that neither villian has anything. If they have nothing you take down the pot. if they do have an overpair/set/2pair then you have a decentg chance of outdrawing them.

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Your statement seems to be very contradictory to the point that giving a free card hurts you.

If neither Villian has anything do you really want them to fold now, or do you want them to possibly take another shot at the pot? Sure there is a chance that the turn can hurt you, but lets say one player has AK and the other has QJ, this would give them the best chance to draw out on you, and it is still less than 25% that they will draw out on you on the turn, and even if they do you can resuck the river. You have 61% equity against these hands, and neither of the other hands have more than 20% equity.

[Roger Mainfield]

Could you please post ranges for both opponents jhill3535.

1) Yes
2) Extracting with a 6789 board or 789J board is tough, and you are relying on your opponenet having a strong hand to extract anything, which they haven't show they have. You hand might be the best anyway. And when the 6/J falls they only have 1 card to make there hand.
3) They have made a mistake already, how does it matter? the money is the pots now. Give them a chance to make a bigger mistake.
4) Not raising agains't 2 opponent where at least 1 (MP) has a reasonable chance to have overs and giving them a free card to hit an A,Q,K is a big mistake, Agree?
5) K so this relates to bluffing? What?!?!

We are approaching this from 2 different ways, you think we are behind and need to catch up, doing it as cheap as possible. I think there is a good chance we are ahead right now, and If we aren't we can catch up.

If we are ahead and we don't raise, we give a 6 outter a free card. If we are behind and we raise ( as long as he doens't 3 bet) then we are semibluffing.

It is more of a mistake to not raise when we are ahead than it is to raise when we are behind. And since we are more likely to be ahead we should raise.

So the last paragraph seems confusing, do people understand it?

[jhill3535]

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Could you please post ranges for both opponents jhill3535.

1) Yes
2) Extracting with a 6789 board or 789J board is tough, and you are relying on your opponenet having a strong hand to extract anything, which they haven't show they have. You hand might be the best anyway. And when the 6/J falls they only have 1 card to make there hand.
3) They have made a mistake already, how does it matter? the money is the pots now. Give them a chance to make a bigger mistake.
4) Not raising agains't 2 opponent where at least 1 (MP) has a reasonable chance to have overs and giving them a free card to hit an A,Q,K is a big mistake, Agree?
5) K so this relates to bluffing? What?!?!

We are approaching this from 2 different ways, you think we are behind and need to catch up, doing it as cheap as possible. I think there is a good chance we are ahead right now, and If we aren't we can catch up.

If we are ahead and we don't raise, we give a 6 outter a free card. If we are behind and we raise ( as long as he doens't 3 bet) then we are semibluffing.

It is more of a mistake to not raise when we are ahead than it is to raise when we are behind. And since we are more likely to be ahead we should raise.

So the last paragraph seems confusing, do people understand it?

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Not sure where to start, so....

FWIW I am not trying to say that one is better than the other, I believe both options of raising and calling are ok. I am just trying to spur some discussion on this topic.

I guess I will address the last paragraph that I wrote first. It was this:

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If neither Villian has anything do you really want them to fold now, or do you want them to possibly take another shot at the pot? Sure there is a chance that the turn can hurt you, but lets say one player has AK and the other has QJ, this would give them the best chance to draw out on you, and it is still less than 25% that they will draw out on you on the turn, and even if they do you can resuck the river. You have 61% equity against these hands, and neither of the other hands have more than 20% equity.

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What I meant by this is, if we assume that we are ahead here, this combination of hands by the Villians make it the most likely that we will be drawn out on the turn. My point is that it isn't very likely even with the combination of cards that makes them drawing out on us most likely.

1)Yes
2)Yes, I agree, extracting when we make a str8 on the turn is going to be almost impossible unless one of the other players bluffs into us.

My point here about drawing to the near nuts is that it is a draw that I don't really want to be pushed off of. Personally I am less likely to raise when I am getting good odds to draw if my draw is to the nuts. I am more inclined to raise if my draw is not to the nuts (such as a flush draw with SC's) or if I am not getting quite the right price to draw.

I think the pot is laying us enough here, that no matter the 2 opponents hand ranges, calling the bet that is to us is +EV (we are getting about 4.5-1 on the call). I am not saying that raising may not be more +EV than calling, but just that calling is +EV.

3) Point taken. It is always good for you to get your opponents to make bigger mistakes or more mistakes.

However, if raising forces them to play their hand correctly against you, do you gain? Just calling the bet, COULD lead them to make another, possibly bigger mistake later in the hand where raising MAY cause them to fold a worse hand. This is very opponent dependent.

4) I think I need to come back to this one after working with some ranges for the 2 opponents. But, before doing so I will say that it is usually a bad thing, it depends on how much equity you lose when they hit a card on the turn times how likely it is that they draw out on you. If you said that both opponents combined had all 4 overcards between them, then we have equity of:

oard: 8c 9d 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.009% 64.01% 00.00% 578 0.00 { TdTh }
Hand 1: 20.266% 20.27% 00.00% 183 0.00 { AcKd }
Hand 2: 15.725% 15.73% 00.00% 142 0.00 { QhJs }

Now lets say a Q hits the turn:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

42 games 0.005 secs 8,400 games/sec

Board: 8c 9d 7s Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.667% 16.67% 00.00% 7 0.00 { TdTh }
Hand 1: 14.286% 14.29% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AcKd }
Hand 2: 69.048% 69.05% 00.00% 29 0.00 { QhJs }

So in this case we lost 47% in equity or about $1, 5PTBB. It should be close to the same for the K's and A's as well.

So between them they have 9 outs on the turn and there are 43 unknown cards, so they have about a 21% chance of hitting on the turn.

21% of the time we will lose 47% equity, so we lose about 10% equity on average but we gain equity when a brick comes, so we have to add that back. Lets say the turn is another 7. Then our equity goes to:

42 games 0.005 secs 8,400 games/sec

Board: 8c 9d 7s 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.571% 78.57% 00.00% 33 0.00 { TdTh }
Hand 1: 14.286% 14.29% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AcKd }
Hand 2: 07.143% 07.14% 00.00% 3 0.00 { QhJs }

So 79% of the time we gain 14.5% equity, or an average of 11.5%.

So -10% + 11.5% = +1.5% equity we pick up on average by calling the flop against these two hands. Hence it is +EV.

Obviously if you can fold out one of the 2 hands then you pick up a large portion of the equity that they had.

So not raising is not a mistake per se, but it may not be the biggest gainer.

5) What I really meant here was that even if one opponent draws out on the turn, he most likely should try to keep the pot fairly small given the board texture and action to this point. This could possibly get us a cheap river on which may get to see for free for the opportunity to resuck.

Raising could buy us this card as well, but my point is we may not have to raise to buy a free river card, we may get it anyway as we did in the actual hand.

I am not sure if we are ahead or behind here, it is reasonable to assume that it is pretty close either way.

So lets look at ranges now. This is NL10 so without any kind of reads what should be assume. I guess for the sake of analysis we can consider that they are standard bad players at NL10, especially the CO since I have assumed that he may call the flop bet with overcards and/or gutshot straight draw.

At the point of our decision on the flop, I would give both players really wide ranges, lets say:

22+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

That seems really wide as it is 19.8% of hands, but I can see people playing each of these hands this way.

Our equity against this range is:

34,041,294 games 0.480 secs 70,919,362 games/sec

Board: 8c 9d 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.505% 48.68% 03.82% 16572120 1301195.33 { TdTh }
Hand 1: 23.748% 21.38% 02.37% 7277932 806057.33 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 23.748% 21.38% 02.37% 7277932 806057.33 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

When the A hits the turn we have equity of:

Board: 8c 9d 7s Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.869% 29.69% 02.17% 383432 28072.00 { TdTh }
Hand 1: 34.066% 32.43% 01.64% 418703 21169.00 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 34.066% 32.43% 01.64% 418703 21169.00 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

and after the 7 on the river against both players we now have equity of:

30,000 games 0.017 secs 1,764,705 games/sec

Board: 8c 9d 7s Ac 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.633% 26.37% 00.26% 7912 78.00 { TdTh }
Hand 1: 36.683% 36.03% 00.65% 10810 195.00 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 36.683% 36.03% 00.65% 10810 195.00 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

If you assume MP will fold if you call, then you have equity of:

187 games 0.005 secs 37,400 games/sec

Board: 8c 9d 7s Ac 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.604% 51.34% 00.27% 96 0.50 { TdTh }
Hand 1: 48.396% 48.13% 00.27% 90 0.50 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

[CaptVimes]

When you likely have the best hand its usually not wrong to bet. When an A,K, or Q, falls on that turn and someone bets half the pot or more we just lost our odds to draw and our top pair is no good. That's why its hard to play. This hand is good and has even better potential, but it's vulnerable and needs to be played faster.

Also, hero is never drawing to the nuts with this hand. JT is already the nuts.

[jhill3535]

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When you likely have the best hand its usually not wrong to bet. When an A,K, or Q, falls on that turn and someone bets half the pot or more we just lost our odds to draw and our top pair is no good. That's why its hard to play. This hand is good and has even better potential, but it's vulnerable and needs to be played faster.

Also, hero is never drawing to the nuts with this hand. JT is already the nuts.

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I am trying to point out that it is not as vulnerable as everyone is trying to make it out to be. The pot isn't very big, and you haven't invested a large portion of your stack so you shouldn't be too attached to this particular pot that if a over card hits and someone bets half the pot that we can't fold, and we haven't really made a mistake other than the fact that we might not have played it "optimumly" (sp)

Obv, JT is already the nuts, but my point is if you hit your OESD, then a T is necessary for the nuts, and there aren't many combos of JT and QT in their combined ranges.

[Roger Mainfield]

Okay well I just got home and I'm going to sleep, I will think on it and post something mroe detailed in the morning. The point I will start with is the assumption they will fire again, unless they are extremely donkish aggro, they won't fire again on the turn without a hand that beats us. So if you raise on the flop you fold out hands that would see the turn, and will only bet themselves if they have you beat. If they turn blanks and it goes check check, do you bet there?

Because if the turn blanks and you bet, well you might as well have raised on the flop, in case someone is slowplaying and you have a higher chance of hitting. If the turn comes A,K,Q then you have quite possibly made a big mistake by not raising flop.

Note: I am no good at making those EV calculations, it's just never something I have put much time into. But here whilst I think both calling and raising are +EV, I think that raising is more.

I will post more in the morning, and I hope some established posters can weight in.

[Seeeno]

Wow a lot of postings gone around. I like it.
I was in school so exuse my silence.
I'll read the entire postings when I got some time, lets see how much of your thinking I can catch up with

[Specialwon]

Yup, this is straight out of Super System. You should raise up big on the flop, you may well have the best hand right now and you have 10 pretty good draws if you're wrong. MP1 is short stacked and if he has just Ax in his hand, it will really pinch him to have to draw to a big bet. I toss in about 1.50 here and I'm happy winning the small pot on the spot.

I would only play it your way with a good made straight or, sometimes, with trips off the flop to give these guys a chance to catch a good second best hand. I also think that this is quite a dangerous drawing flop for you, there's a good chance here that you make your straight or trips only to get sucked down the toilet by say JT, QT or QJ, so just drawing here may end up getting you stacked.

I wouldn't normally base my betting decision on the explicit odds to a draw unless I am pushing or calling a push, other factors are just as important here.

For example, MP1, who is leading this dance, bets weak pre and post flop, so there is a good chance he and his friend would fold out to a stiff raise even if you had trash. So, I might sometimes raise here with nothing, leveraging my position.

I'm not keen on your idea of the turn raise, there's too much chance you'll run into the real thing, which it looks like you did - I dunno if I fold that river at 2:1 but he definitely shows that ace a lot imo.

So yeah, I think you played it weak and the bigger boy ended up taking the pot off you. Remember, Aggression, Aggression, Aggression.

[Specialwon]

I might also add that the longer you put off making a stand in a hand, the harder it gets to know what to do. The problem is multiplied because there are two opponents.

Just reading jhills posts, I think that the problem with this thinking is that if we give away cheap cards, we only make money when we make our straight AND villain has or makes a nice second best hand. That is one of the least likely outcomes of this hand imo.

What usually happens is:

a) villains are on a draw of some sort. They don't catch on the turn and are still ready to fold to the first stiff bet. So we have gained nothing by waiting. We have to give another free or cheap card to keep them in the hand whilst still having absolutely no clue about their holdings. This is a really bad spot to be in imo.

b) villain is on a draw, turn helps him (usually Ax) which he decides to slowplay. We are beat unless we make a straight on the river. We tossed away the edge we had on the flop.

c) villain catches nothing, but decides to bluff the river. Very reasonable play. We have an extremely hard time calling because he gave us zero clues about his hand. In the meantime everything has gone wrong for us, as it mostly does when we pin all our hopes on a draw.

d) we make our straight on the turn, we gleefully bet out and both villains fold.

e) we make our straight on the river, we gleefully bet out and are shown a full house.

I think the problem here is quite simple, this was a top pair hand and should have been played that way, the fact there was an OESD as well should have just added to our feelings of confidence as we stuck in a big raise on the flop.

Playing it slow like this imo is asking for an exciting adventure into random haha gambling land, a fun place to be I grant you, but......