#1
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I turn an absolute monster hand/draw
As if top pair wasn't good enough, now I've got an OESD and flush draw to go along with it.
Value cap? Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $5. Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls. Flop: (9 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, CO folds, SB calls. Turn: (5.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>?? |
#2
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Re: I turn an absolute monster hand/draw
If you cap you obviously need to fold the river UI. However I can see no reason to cap.
When he 3-bet you have 9-23 outs, probably somthing like 16 on average. 15 against a set, 9 against JT, 18 against K9. I can see no value in pushing when having ~35% equity HU and at the same time shut your action when you hit, plus not getting a sd unless he checks the river. |
#3
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Re: I turn an absolute monster hand/draw
Where is dead money when you need it? W/o other players - call the 3 bet on the turn. Even if he checks the river, after the 3 bet, you have no change of getting him to fold out on the river. I think you are behind after the turn and need to draw a less than 50% shot (admittedly you have a TON of good outs, but NOT 50%+) and your strong draws do NOT warrant the turn cap.
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#4
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Re: I turn an absolute monster hand/draw
Im just calling the 3 bet and calling the river.
-Anqew |
#5
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Re: I turn an absolute monster hand/draw
I don't like the cap. Villain apparantly loves his hand and it's likely better than 1 pair.
So, I'm just calling the 3-bet and folding the river u/i. If we hit a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a J at the river, raise. If we hit a K, T, or 6, I'd call the river. |
#6
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Re: I turn an absolute monster hand/draw
I think it's a little much. It's not bad per se, but if you just called you could get to a SD cheaper if you miss and will most likely get at least 2 bets out of him on the river if you make your hand.
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#7
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Re: I turn an absolute monster hand/draw
it's a value cap if you have more than 23 outs that you are positive will give you the best hand at showdown and you think you can get a free showdown on the river (obviously, you fold river ui). at best, i do not think your trip/2p outs are good and you are looking at about 15 outs. your pot equity combined with the value of a POSSIBLE showdown is not enough to cap turn.
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#8
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Re: I turn an absolute monster hand/draw
SB has been laying low until the turn. It sounds like he likes the 9 - possibly made him his set? I think the Str8 is unlikely, as is 2 pair - possible nut flush draw.
Capping here is not a good move, since your outs are not clean. His turn bet say's he likes what he see's, so I would just call - let him lead the action on the river, where I can possibly raise depending on what falls. Worse case I make a crying call.... I don't like this hand and how it played one bit. (by the way - I would not label this a monster) |
#9
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Re: I turn an absolute monster hand/draw
I think it's close (a lot closer than many of the other respondants think) but I think calling here is probably a better idea. I think your pot equity here is about 30%. That is accounting for the whole bevy of possible hands the villain might have and the possible bluffs. I see you winning roughly:
10% of the time unimproved 5% of the time if the 7 pairs 5% of the time if the 8 pairs 5% of the time if the 9 pairs 15% of the time if you pair your 10 15% of the time if you pair your K 35% of the time if you hit your straight (J,6) 90% of the time if you hit your flush (possibility that the SB has the nut flush draw and the possibility that the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] gives him a full house). That gives you something around 12 outs plus the 10% of the time you are already ahead and I give you about 30% pot equity. At the moment, you have 10.5 bets in the pot. If you cap and call an average of one bet on the river, you have to figure that your putting in 3 bets to win 12.5 or getting 4:1, roughly, on your cap. By not capping, you'll put in two bets to win 11.5 and be getting almost 6:1 on your call. Since you are only going to win this 3 times in 10, I think your odds are better with a call here instead of a cap. If there were one more player coming along for the ride, I'd cap it because the implied odds are off the charts. Heads up. Call down. |
#10
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Re: I turn an absolute monster hand/draw
I would prefer to just call the 3-bet and pop and flush/straight river and call (maybe raise/fold) two pair/trips
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