nut flush facing a very strange river bet--- push/call/fold?

ssdex · #1 08-08-2007, 01:50 PM

no reads on villain--- such a weird spot on river here--- what do you do?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($58.35)
UTG ($27)
MP ($50)
CO ($32.75)
Button ($48.10)
SB ($93.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, SB raises to $3, Hero calls $2.50.

Flop: ($6) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3.

Turn: ($12) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3.

River: ($18) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $25, Hero....?

EMc · #2 08-08-2007, 01:54 PM

Im shoving here, as his line looks like a FD. I also like a flop raise.

CyberianBull · #3 08-08-2007, 01:54 PM

- Is 3-betting pf out of the question?
- I like to repop his c-bet here
- River: call or fold - no stats on villain at all (won at showdown %; AF, etc.)??

Tough spot, no doubt

relativity_x · #4 08-08-2007, 02:03 PM

You chased to hit the nut flush, and you hit. If villain has a boat, it sucks.

I'd probably push since he'll call with a lower flush.

sightless · #5 08-08-2007, 02:06 PM

Raise flop./Raise Turn
shove river

TheSalche · #6 08-08-2007, 02:06 PM

Anybody notice how weird his preflop raise is? Has he been doing this as his standard opening raise? River fold is not an option, I like shove.

cubase · #7 08-08-2007, 02:15 PM

This really screams QQ, 99 or crappier flush.

a) Readless, I'm folding ATs in the BB to the PFR.

b) As played, you missed a flop raise that buys you the pot or buys you a free card most of the time.

c) Once the board pairs, I tend to give up on my draws readless. Since the villian gave you 4:1 on the turn though, you pretty much have to call.

d) Out here in forumland, I can find a fold sometimes. In reality, I call and and cross my fingers.

Edit: Doing some more thinking. He couldn't have raised with any Axs hand that would proceed since you are holding the flush A. We are readless so we don't know if he does this with other suited cards, but even so, what would he raise with that hit the flush? KQs is out, maybe KJ, KTs is out JTs, is out.

Basically all the big suited cards are out. So unless he is fooling around with some smaller suited connectors, I'm not sure which flush he is holding.

The more I think about it the more I think you are looking at QQ/99, with more weight on 99.

Reasoning:

Readless, he might bet weak when he flops his set with QQ, and weak again once he locks in on the turn. I've seen this line before. It's the slowplay that still gets dough in and gives you a chance to catch up.

With 99, he plays it almost the same way (we are readless, but this is a line I've seen). He c-bets (afraid of the Q). You didn't raise, so he bets again trying to get value (and still afraid of Q).

Finally, he nuts on the river and it is time to get the dough in. Your line looks like a flush draw anyway, so he probably thinks you hit it.

His PFR is a little odd but I've seen people do this with both big cards and smaller PP's. They raise smaller PP's big because they want everyone to fold.

But, we are readless.

In the heat of battle (as played), I call and take my notes after he shows me QQ/99/88/or crappier flush.

I really think a fold pre-flop is in order, followed by a flop raise as played.

reef2287 · #8 08-08-2007, 02:16 PM

is it better to take the cheap turn there or raise so if you hit, more monies! b/c most the time if you hit your nutflush, they are checking and not overbetting-- but on this hand, he played it so weak, it screams boat or lower flush but since hes probably a fish it has to be a low flush, go ahead and take his tack

ssdex · #9 08-08-2007, 02:21 PM

well i was never consider folding-----

i just wasnt sure if a call or a push was better here--- obviously sometimes it will be 99 or QQ--- but is it a lower flush or a really poorly played AA/KK that are paying us when we shove to make a shove +ev here?

cubase · #10 08-08-2007, 02:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
well i was never consider folding-----

i just wasnt sure if a call or a push was better here--- obviously sometimes it will be 99 or QQ--- but is it a lower flush or a really poorly played AA/KK that are paying us when we shove to make a shove +ev here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking at my thinking above, what types of flushes are you putting him on? The only clubs he can hold that are big are the Kc and the Jc.

We are readless, so we can't assume Kc2c (he did raise UTG after all). JcTc doesn't work since you have the Tc.

KcJc I guess is possible but seems unlikely, readless.

So if you are putting him on a flush as part of his range, which flush did you have in mind?