u47.5 27-73 WSEX

[Lori]

$27 contracts on unders at WSEX Looks to be good value to me.

Up to $30 while I typed this, still seems to be a buy. One huge pass, a runback and almost zero offense in this so far.

Lori

[Lori]

Just topped up at $37

Lori

[SuperSnort]

Sorry can you explain what you mean by this cause i am stupid and dont understand :-(

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry can you explain what you mean by this cause i am stupid and dont understand :-(

[/ QUOTE ]

You buy contracts at $x, if you win the bet (in this case under 47.5 points.... so no more scores) your contract becomes worth $100.

Buying at $30 effectively means you're getting odds of 70-30 (get back $100 or $0)

Lori

[SuperSnort]

Thx for that and best of luck for no more scores!

[CEE]

Anyone tried to build a past performance based model to beat this WSEX trading site? Seems like it could be done. Acquiring data could be the biggest challenge.

[Lori]

Every time I try to do some proper analysis to beat in-play trading on anything I discover that the best thing to use is just 'feel'.

I suspect that trading sites (moreso exchanges than bookmakers) actually pretty much mimic a decent model, and the times you get bets are the times that there is good reason to believe that the model is likely to be wrong.

Lori

[CEE]

I don't disagree with your points... but early in games, it just seems like the fluctuations are way too large, particularly with respect to the o/u.

So now I guess I need to track down some play-by-play NFL data to back up my instinct.

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't disagree with your points... but early in games, it just seems like the fluctuations are way too large, particularly with respect to the o/u.

So now I guess I need to track down some play-by-play NFL data to back up my instinct.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.nfl.com/scores/2006/week1

Lori

[CEE]

I know... good times parsing through that for a couple seasons of data... but I think I'm going to give it a shot. I'll report back if I get anything good together.