Inducing a bluff

[private joker]

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You should fire on this card w/JTs.

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Sometimes I do.

I think the point of the thread is that it seemed to me a paired board like this is a better board to make this play, since a free card to an 8 hurts me a lot less (as he's drawing to 2 outs as opposed to 5), overcards are folding to a bet, and I'm basically WA of most hands and WB the hands that are beating me.

I guess it's true that raising the river wouldn't be a good idea, and had the hand transpired in the way I planned who knows if I'd have come to that realization before I put the 16 chips in... but I do think that we shouldn't be auto-betting this A here when we have a chance to make another $80 off a player who's drawing dead or to 2 outs.

[Justin A]

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Do you give up when you have JTs?

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No chance metagame in this spot is as important as the immediate EV.

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No chance that there's enough EV to be gained by checking behind in a live game here to make up for the admittedly small gains you have in EV by playing Ax the same as JTs.

Rob

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FWIW I wasn't arguing that this is a clear check, I was just saying I think we need to worry about the immediate EV rather than the metagame.

[Nate.]

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Commerce 40/80. Game is playing very very tight and it's not that great, but we're about to break (and unbeknownst to me I'm about to move to an awesome game for the last 2 hours of the night).

Folded to me in the CO, I open AQ. SB calls, BB folds.

Flop 855. Check, I bet, he calls.
Turn A. He checks, I check?

(Plan is for him to bet the river and I raise any card that isn't an 8, T, or J.)

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If you don't think he has anything, why raise the river? If you think he has a 5, why raise the river? If you think he has an ace, why not bet the turn?

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PokerBob--

If you don't think this is a persuasive argument, why post it? If you do think this is a persuasive argument, why not post in Beginners?

Justin--

You're right on in this thread, as usual.

Joker--

I think you should bet this turn, just because it looks like such an autobetting card. Your hand is so strong that a checkraise isn't even such a nasty possibility. I admire your creativity here, and maybe I'm misinterpreting what the relevant ranges are here, but even under the conditions you describe I think this is a bet. (And I think someone should make explicit the elementary obvious point that even a relatively harmless free card still carries a little bit of danger.)

--Nate

[Captain R]

I sometimes play this hand this way when I'm OOP as opposed to in position. I.e. I open with AK, one caller on the button.

Flop is 8-8-2. I bet, he thinks and calls. Turn is A, I check-call.

I think it works better OOP because you're often not going to lose a bet, whereas in position you automatically lose 1 BB on the turn if he has anything.

But I only do this in tight, tough tables where it's hard to scratch out any profit.

[Fianchetto]

No need to overthink this one, bet the turn.

[bdaddy]

golferbrent- this table(bad game) was 2nd row away from the board along the walkway. When that game moved we both got moved to 3rd table along walkway(sick game), which contained spaztard indian guy in seat1, blitzed meathead fratboy tool in seat 9.

btw, I liked this play , given the dynamic of the table and the villain at the time.

[Bicycles_Biatch]

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No need to overthink this one, bet the turn.

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I agree... I think most likely he was peeling the flop with an inferior ace or an underpair to the board. I see players at commerce do this ALL the time with a hand like 33, 66, 77 in this spot. They want to see that the turn is a "safe-card" before they check raise or lead bet the turn. Obviously the ace on the turn was not said "safe-card".

However.... one thing to consider is that you lose value if he has a hand like AJ-A9 and you check the turn... however... one benefit is the following.

By checking the turn I think you induce a crying call on the river by ANY pair if it's checked to you. Sticking with my same example from above. Player calls your preflop late position raise with 66... flop looks safe, but they are kind of weak and want to see a safe turn.

Turn is an ace... they hate it and plan to fold the turn to your bet. BUT, now you check. River, comes a blank... they still don't like their hand but don't have the balls to bet it. They check, you bet... they talk themselves into a crying call because in their eyes you "gave-up" on the turn and must have two other unpaired broadway cards. I don't know if you know the Korean John Smith that plays at commerce every day, but he pulls this play off to perfection. Someone people are always making crying calls to him on the river after he checked the turn. It works for him :-)

This is the only place I see this play gaining value...

[PokerBob]

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Commerce 40/80. Game is playing very very tight and it's not that great, but we're about to break (and unbeknownst to me I'm about to move to an awesome game for the last 2 hours of the night).

Folded to me in the CO, I open AQ. SB calls, BB folds.

Flop 855. Check, I bet, he calls.
Turn A. He checks, I check?

(Plan is for him to bet the river and I raise any card that isn't an 8, T, or J.)

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If you don't think he has anything, why raise the river? If you think he has a 5, why raise the river? If you think he has an ace, why not bet the turn?

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PokerBob--

If you don't think this is a persuasive argument, why post it? If you do think this is a persuasive argument, why not post in Beginners?


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I'm not sure what argument you are referring to. (Maybe there is a post I missed by reading in flat mode or something?)

I merely asked a few questions that IMO one should be asking when they find themselves in this spot. PJ does not give any read on this guy, so I am assuming he is unknown. Doing anything other than checking the turn and calling the river vs. an unknown in this spot is absurd IMO.

[private joker]

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golferbrent- this table(bad game) was 2nd row away from the board along the walkway. When that game moved we both got moved to 3rd table along walkway(sick game), which contained spaztard indian guy in seat1, blitzed meathead fratboy tool in seat 9.


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As well as fishy wool-cap guy in seat 7.

Which game were you in, brent? The only other good table was the one Sailboats was at (Pete Sampras-looking kid in seat 9) and that had a bigtime LAG getting a massage in seat 4 and some old white guy in seat 6 in a red sweater.

[Sailboats]

I was playing with that wool cap guy at the same table the night before. He most likely was playing for 24+ hours. I value-checked the turn and called a river bet on a 682KJ board with 77 and had to hear about how i should have folded and he could of easily had me beat.

PJ-- there was also a fishy guy in seat 1 who is a NL regular trying out some limit(cold calling machine). And you must try and keep my identity a secret [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]